Tuesday's 15-game MLB slate is loaded with playoff races down the stretch, and the home run board on Polymarket reflects it.
We've built out our top 10 home run picks for today's games, ranked from most to least likely to hit.
Before we get into it, don't forget about the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL vs NYM | Pete Alonso HR: Yes | 24¢ | $398.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| PHI vs WSH | Kyle Schwarber HR: Yes | 23¢ | $415.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATH vs TB | Junior Caminero HR: Yes | 22¢ | $434.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NYY vs MIN | Ben Rice HR: Yes | 22¢ | $434.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SD vs COL | Fernando Tatis Jr. HR: Yes | 22¢ | $434.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CWS vs CLE | Munetaka Murakami HR: Yes | 21¢ | $454.61 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| LAD vs CIN | Will Smith HR: Yes | 20¢ | $457.77 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| DET vs TOR | Kazuma Okamoto HR: Yes | 17¢ | $560.35 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SF vs STL | Alec Burleson HR: Yes | 16¢ | $577.82 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs PIT | William Contreras HR: Yes | 12¢ | $791.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Best Home Run Bets Today for Orioles vs Mets – Pete Alonso (Yes | 24¢)
‼️ The Pick: Pete Alonso 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 24¢
Alonso is sitting on 299 career home runs, and this series against his old team is the exact stage he'd want for number 300.
He returned to Citi Field on Monday to a standing ovation from Mets fans, went hitless, and left the milestone still on the table.
Baltimore's Mateo Bautista starter matchup aside, Alonso has hit 35 homers with an .863 OPS this season, and he's shown a pattern of running hot in short bursts rather than trickling homers out evenly.
New York's pitching staff has been shaky all year, and Alonso already has one blast against the Mets this series.
This ticket bought at 24¢ per share on a $100 stake, working out to roughly 417 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution. The board's own "To Win" figure landed at $398.50, a touch under that raw math, which reflects order book depth and small fee drag rather than an error. That same gap shows up on every ticket in this piece, so we won't re-explain it pick by pick.
- If Alonso goes deep: the position settles for a profit of $398.50 on the $100 stake, and it likely comes with a milestone storyline attached.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At the top of today's home run board, this is about as short a price as you'll find, but the emotional stakes and Alonso's recent form both argue for it.
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Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Phillies vs Nationals – Kyle Schwarber (Yes | 23¢)
‼️ The Pick: Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 23¢
Schwarber leads all of MLB in home runs this season, and he's not slowing down as the schedule winds toward October.
He hit a grand slam last week and has continued adding to his total in the games since, riding one of the hottest stretches of his career.
Philadelphia is locked into a playoff spot and can afford to let their designated hitter keep swinging without limitation.
Washington's bullpen has been one of the league's most homer-prone, and Schwarber has already gone deep against this staff this season.
At 23¢, this ticket works out to roughly 435 shares on a $100 buy, with the board listing a $415.56 profit if it settles Yes.
- If Schwarber connects: the shares settle at $1 each for a $415.56 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely under Polymarket's all-or-nothing settlement.
Given he's the active home run leader in baseball, this price looks fair rather than generous, but the volume of contact still makes it a reasonable swing.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Athletics vs Rays – Junior Caminero (Yes | 22¢)
‼️ The Pick: Junior Caminero 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 22¢
Caminero has already clinched a playoff berth for Tampa Bay with a walk-off homer, and he's shown he can carry a hot streak for weeks at a time.
Earlier this season he homered in six straight games, the youngest player to do that since at least 1900, and he's since topped 40 homers on the year.
His underlying metrics (exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and especially bat speed) all sit in elite percentiles, which points to sustainable power rather than a fluke run.
The Athletics own one of the league's worst pitching staffs by runs allowed, making this one of the softer matchups on the board today.
At 22¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 455 shares, with the board's listed profit at $434.22 if it hits.
- If Caminero homers: the position pays out a $434.22 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Against a last-place pitching staff, this is one of the more attractive prices on today's full slate of home run bets.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Yankees vs Twins – Ben Rice (Yes | 22¢)
‼️ The Pick: Ben Rice 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 22¢
Rice made his first All-Star team this season and has quietly become one of the more consistent power bats in New York's lineup.
He hit a leadoff home run this past weekend and has strong hard-hit and exit velocity numbers to back up the recent surge.
The Yankees have already clinched a playoff spot, and Aaron Judge's return from the injured list this month has only deepened a lineup that already runs through Rice.
Minnesota's pitching staff has struggled all season, sitting well below .500, which lines up well for a hitter on this kind of roll.
At 22¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 455 shares, with the board's listed profit sitting at $434.22.
- If Rice goes deep: the shares settle at $1 each for a $434.22 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the entire $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
With a bottom-tier pitching staff on the other side, this price looks generous for a hitter riding real recent form.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Padres vs Rockies – Fernando Tatis Jr. (Yes | 22¢)
‼️ The Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 22¢
Tatis just went deep on Monday against this very team, a 449-foot blast that helped San Diego jump out to an early lead.
He's dealt with cold spells at points this year, but when he's locked in, his exit velocity and bat speed numbers rank among the best in the sport.
Colorado owns the worst record in baseball and has allowed more runs than almost any staff in the league.
The Rockies enter on a nine-game skid, and their pitching has been one of the softer matchups on the board all season.
At 22¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 455 shares, with the board's listed profit at $434.22 if it hits.
- If Tatis homers: the position pays out a $434.22 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost under the all-or-nothing settlement.
Coming off a home run against this exact opponent one night earlier, this price looks like fair value against one of the league's weakest staffs.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for White Sox vs Guardians – Munetaka Murakami (Yes | 21¢)
‼️ The Pick: Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 21¢
Murakami's rookie season in Chicago has been a genuine breakout, with 30-plus home runs after signing out of Japan's Central League this past offseason.
He missed six weeks with a hamstring strain but returned firing, and his home runs have consistently been no-doubters rather than cheap ones.
This game carries real weight for the AL Central, with Cleveland sitting just a game and a half back of Chicago in the standings.
That kind of pressure has historically brought out the best in Murakami's swing, which projects well against a Guardians staff that's been middling on runs allowed.
At 21¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 476 shares, with the board listing a $454.61 profit if it settles Yes.
- If Murakami connects: the shares settle at $1 each for a $454.61 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
For a rookie this locked in during a playoff race, this price offers real upside relative to the risk.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Dodgers vs Reds – Will Smith (Yes | 20¢)
‼️ The Pick: Will Smith 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 20¢
Smith has quietly been one of the steadiest power bats in a Dodgers lineup that's already clinched a playoff spot and added Tarik Skubal at the deadline.
He hits in the middle of an order that runs deep with talent, which tends to mean fewer soft pitches to work with but also more chances with runners on.
Cincinnati sits well under .500 and has allowed one of the highest run totals in the league this season.
That combination of a stacked lineup around him and a leaky Reds staff makes this a reasonable spot for Smith to add to his home run total.
At 20¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 480 shares, with the board's listed profit at $457.77 if it hits.
- If Smith homers: the position pays out a $457.77 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Against one of the league's most homer-prone pitching staffs, this price carries solid value for a middle-of-the-order bat.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Tigers vs Blue Jays – Kazuma Okamoto (Yes | 17¢)
‼️ The Pick: Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 17¢
Okamoto just launched his 32nd home run of the season this past weekend, becoming just the fifth Japanese-born player in MLB history to reach 30 homers in a year.
That blast came in a back-to-back-to-back sequence with Toronto's top of the order, a sign of how locked in the Blue Jays' lineup is right now.
Toronto is fighting for a wild-card spot down the stretch, and Okamoto has settled into a middle-of-the-order role that keeps him in scoring position most nights.
Detroit's rotation has had its moments, but the Tigers have allowed a fair share of home runs against right-handed power this season.
At 17¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 588 shares, with the board's listed profit at $560.35 if it settles Yes.
- If Okamoto goes deep: the shares settle at $1 each for a $560.35 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost entirely under the all-or-nothing settlement.
Riding a genuine power surge into a playoff push, this price looks like solid value further down the home run board.
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Best Home Run Bets Today for Giants vs Cardinals – Alec Burleson (Yes | 16¢)
‼️ The Pick: Alec Burleson 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 16¢
Burleson won a Silver Slugger last season and has turned into one of the more reliable left-handed power bats in St. Louis's lineup.
He's been a steady presence in the middle of the order all year, and his career home run total has climbed into the 70s despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park.
San Francisco is well out of playoff contention and has one of the league's weaker run-prevention staffs to show for it.
That combination of a fading opponent and a hitter who's found his groove makes this a reasonable spot further down the board.
At 16¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 607 shares, with the board's listed profit at $577.82 if it hits.
- If Burleson connects: the position pays out a $577.82 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At this price, the payout multiple is high enough that it's worth a small stake even with a lower hit probability attached.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Brewers vs Pirates – William Contreras (Yes | 12¢)
‼️ The Pick: William Contreras 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 12¢
Contreras made his third All-Star team this year and remains one of the best power-hitting catchers in the league when healthy.
He's cleared 100 career home runs and has continued to produce long balls even on a Brewers roster built more around pitching and defense than raw power.
Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball and has already clinched a playoff spot, which means Contreras is playing meaningful innings against a division rival still fighting for its own postseason positioning.
Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been roughly league average this season, which is part of why this price sits as the longest shot on today's board.
At 12¢ on a $100 buy, this works out to roughly 833 shares, with the board's listed profit at $791.57 if it settles Yes.
- If Contreras goes deep: the shares settle at $1 each for a $791.57 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost entirely under the all-or-nothing settlement.
This is the longest shot in today's home run bets, but the payout multiple reflects that, and a single swing from an All-Star catcher covers the risk many times over.
There are more games and more home run props running on Polymarket beyond the 10 picks covered here, so it's worth scanning the full board before locking anything in.
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Today's Home Run Bets: Final Thoughts
The best home run bets today skew toward hitters facing genuinely weak pitching staffs, from Tatis and the Padres against Colorado's last-place rotation to Caminero against an Athletics staff that's allowed the most runs in baseball.
The MLB home run predictions today at the top of the board (Alonso, Schwarber, Caminero) carry real narrative weight, whether it's a milestone chase, a home run title, or a clinched playoff spot.
Further down the board, Burleson and Contreras offer longer-shot value for anyone looking to spread a smaller stake across the full slate rather than concentrating it on the favorites.
Whichever picks you like best, the full prediction markets hub and the Polymarket app make it easy to get a position on before first pitch.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.
What are the best home run bets today?
Our top pick for today's best home run bets is Pete Alonso against the Mets at 24¢, followed by Kyle Schwarber against the Nationals at 23¢ and Junior Caminero against the Athletics at 22¢.
Which player is favored to hit a home run today?
Pete Alonso carries the shortest price on today's board at 24¢, making him the favorite among today's MLB home run predictions, with Kyle Schwarber close behind at 23¢.
Is there a notable prop on today's board?
Pete Alonso sits one home run away from 300 for his career and is doing it in a series against his former team, the Mets, which adds extra weight to his Yes price today.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that day's game and No if they don't, with shares settling at $1 each on a winning outcome and $0 on a losing one.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up on Polymarket, enter promo code ACTION during registration or your first deposit, and fund your account with at least $10 to unlock the $50 trading bonus.
When do these home run markets resolve?
Home run prop markets resolve at the conclusion of that day's specific game, based on official MLB box score results.
Are there more home run props available beyond these 10 picks?
Yes, Polymarket carries home run markets for most hitters across today's full MLB slate, not just the 10 picks covered in this roundup.
