Nearly five years after Daniel Craig hung up the tuxedo in "No Time to Die," Amazon MGM Studios still hasn't named its new 007, and prediction market traders are done waiting patiently. Kalshi's "Next James Bond Actor" market has turned into the clearest real-time read on the casting search, and right now it's a two-man race at the top with a long tail of hopefuls still in the mix. Here's how the board looks as of the latest prediction market prices.
Next James Bond Actor Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's contracts on this market are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price maps directly to implied probability. Buy "Yes" on Jack Lowden at 51¢, and the contract pays out $1.00 if he's officially cast as Bond, or $0 if he isn't. Each actor gets his own separate Yes/No contract, and every contract other than the one actually cast resolves to zero.
The market resolves "Yes" for a given actor if he's officially cast as the next James Bond actor before January 1, 2030, and the whole event closes by that date if no casting is confirmed sooner. An official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios, or corroborating reporting from outlets like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, or Deadline, is what actually moves this needle.
Jack Lowden
Lowden remains the favorite after a wild few weeks that took him from a virtual unknown in the market to the top of the board. His odds initially spiked on Richard Osman's podcast claim that Lowden was the name he'd heard for the role, then surged again after Gary Oldman, his "Slow Horses" co-star, said on Canadian television that Bond "has been cast" and that he had his "fingers crossed" for Lowden.
The slight pullback here suggests traders are cooling slightly off the post-Oldman peak, treating his comments as a strong signal rather than confirmation. Lowden's case is built on substance too: he's played an MI5 operative on "Slow Horses" for years, has blockbuster experience from "Dunkirk," and would be the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery.
Callum Turner
Turner was the long-time frontrunner in this market before Lowden's rise, and he's still very much alive at 32 cents. His profile fits the traditional Bond mold: leading-man looks, "Fantastic Beasts" and "Masters of the Air" credits, and a high public profile that got a further boost from his marriage to pop star Dua Lipa.
The small uptick here reads as traders unwilling to fully abandon him even as Lowden dominates headlines. Turner has led this board for stretches going back to last year, and a single studio leak could flip the two names again just as quickly as it did before.
Jack Barton
Barton's rise was one of the wildest moves this market has seen: a relative unknown with credits in "Poor Things" and "SAS: Rogue Heroes" briefly became the outright favorite on the back of a single tabloid report, with 500 contracts trading at 50 cents within an hour of his contract going live.
He's since settled into a firm third place as the Lowden and Oldman storylines have dominated the news cycle. His connection to "SAS: Rogue Heroes" writer Steven Knight, who is also penning the next Bond script, keeps him from fading entirely.
Jack O'Connell
O'Connell rounds out the group of serious contenders, carrying steady support without the kind of headline-driven swings that have defined the top three. His resume of gritty, physical performances has kept casting speculation alive even without a specific report attaching him to a screen test.
At 11 cents, the market is treating him as a real but distant possibility rather than a front-runner, the kind of price that could move fast if his name surfaces in the next wave of "trade" reporting.
Jonathan Bailey
Bailey's three-point jump is one of the sharper moves outside the top three, likely reflecting his rising profile after a string of high-visibility roles that have made him one of Hollywood's most in-demand leading men. He wasn't part of the earliest rounds of Bond speculation, but he's clearly picking up trader interest now.
Still priced as a long shot, Bailey's contract is one to watch if casting directors start prioritizing star power over the under-30 profile that's circulated in earlier reporting.
Other contenders still on the board
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson: The biggest gainer on the board outside the top five, with his odds climbing as one of the longer-running names in Bond rumors regains attention.
- Harris Dickinson: A steady presence in the field, priced as a mid-tier long shot as traders focus their money on the leaders.
- Tom Francis: One of the names casting directors reportedly considered early on, now drifting lower as newer contenders draw the market's attention.
- Aaron Pierre: A modest gainer, reflecting continued but limited trader interest in the actor.
- Damson Idris: Holding steady near the bottom of the mid-tier group with no fresh catalyst moving his price.
- George MacKay: Priced at just 3¢ to buy Yes, with too little trading activity yet to establish a stable implied probability.
- Henry Cavill: Ticking up slightly even after Cavill himself suggested publicly that he's likely too old for a role casting directors reportedly want to go to an actor under 30.
- Nicholas Hoult: Drifting down as the top of the market consolidates around Lowden and Turner.
- Nicholas Galitzine: The longest shot on the board at just 1¢, with minimal trading volume behind the price.
You can sign up at Kalshi using promo code and you'll be able to
Next James Bond Actor Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
This board has been defined by a handful of violent repricings rather than a slow, steady climb. Lowden went from a 3.5% longshot in early August to briefly touching 61% after Gary Oldman's on-air comments, a swing almost entirely driven by second-hand celebrity commentary rather than studio confirmation.
The slight pullback to 52% in the current board suggests traders are now digesting that move rather than extending it. With Amazon MGM Studios still silent and no confirmed screen test reports attached to any single name, the market is effectively pricing rumor density: podcast claims, co-star comments, and tabloid leaks are moving more money than any official studio statement has all year.
The overall shape is a genuine two-horse race at the top, with Lowden and Turner combining for roughly 89% of the market and Barton a clear but distant third. Everyone below Barton is trading as a speculative long shot, priced for a surprise rather than an expectation.
What could reprice this board fast: any on-record confirmation from Amazon MGM Studios, reports of actual screen tests once they reportedly begin later this autumn, or a denial from Lowden's camp that could unwind weeks of momentum in a single session.
How to Trade Next James Bond Actor on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code when signing up to
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Next James Bond Actor: Final Thoughts
This board is a market still trading almost entirely on rumor, not confirmation, and that's exactly why it keeps swinging so hard. Lowden's 52% is real momentum, not a lock, and Turner's steady 37% shows the market hasn't fully closed the door on the previous frontrunner. Until Amazon MGM Studios actually speaks, expect every fresh soundbite to keep repricing this contract.
Next James Bond Actor FAQs
How does the Kalshi Next James Bond Actor market work?
Each actor has his own separate Yes/No contract priced between 1¢ and 99¢. A Yes contract pays $1.00 if that actor is officially cast as the next Bond, and $0 if he isn't, with the implied probability equal to the contract's price in cents.
What is the resolution criteria for this market?
A given actor's contract resolves Yes if he is officially cast as the lead in the next James Bond film before January 1, 2030. If no casting is confirmed by then, the market closes with all outstanding contracts resolving No.
Why is Jack Lowden the favorite to be the next James Bond?
Lowden's odds surged after Richard Osman named him on a podcast and again after his "Slow Horses" co-star Gary Oldman said publicly that Bond had already been cast and that he hoped it was Lowden. Neither comment is studio confirmation, but traders have treated both as strong signals.
Is Callum Turner still a serious contender for James Bond?
Yes. Turner led this market for months before Lowden's rise and is still trading at 37 cents, well ahead of every other name besides Lowden.
How did Jack Barton become a Bond contender?
Barton's odds spiked after a single tabloid report linked him to the role, briefly making him the outright favorite before settling into a firm third place behind Lowden and Turner.
When will Amazon MGM Studios officially announce the next James Bond?
The studio has not given a firm date, though producer Amy Pascal has said the end of 2026 is "a good bet" for a casting announcement, with reported screen tests expected to begin later in the autumn.
How do I start trading the Next James Bond Actor market on Kalshi?
Create a Kalshi account, fund it, and navigate to the Next James Bond Actor market to buy Yes or No contracts on any listed actor.
