Monday's three-game MLB slate is thin, but the best home run bets today are not!
Blue Jays-Orioles, Nationals-Tigers and Twins-Giants all carry live contracts on individual sluggers going deep tonight.
Below are our six MLB home run predictions today, plus the full moneyline, spread and total picture for each game.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR vs BAL (6:35 PM ET) | Kazuma Okamoto | HR Yes (15¢) | $490.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| TOR vs BAL (6:35 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (19¢) | $398.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| WSH vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | James Wood | HR Yes (17¢) | $441.79 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| WSH vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | Spencer Torkelson | HR Yes (15¢) | $529.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIN vs SF (9:45 PM ET) | Kody Clemens | HR Yes (17¢) | $419.98 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIN vs SF (9:45 PM ET) | Drew Gilbert | HR Yes (10¢) | $841.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Toronto (77-79) and Baltimore (75-81) are both playing out the string, but neither lineup is short on thump.
Kazuma Okamoto has been the Blue Jays' best story of a rough season, and Pete Alonso has kept hitting bombs since leaving the Mets for Baltimore over the winter.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles Moneyline Odds
Right-hander Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto, opposite Baltimore's Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA) in what shapes up as a true coin flip.
Blue Jays (50%, Yes 50¢): Toronto's price ticked up a point, likely tied to the Okamoto-powered offense that has kept this lineup afloat.
Orioles (50%, Yes 50¢): Baltimore slipped a point on the other side of the same coin, but Baz's shaky ERA is the bigger long-term concern than any short-term market move.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Spread and Total
Toronto -1.5 (Yes 37¢ | No 64¢): The market still leans toward a tight finish, with the Yes side gaining three points as Toronto's lineup has found its footing late.
Over 7.5 Runs (Yes 49¢ | No 52¢): This total sits almost dead even, which tracks with two offenses that can both go quiet against a good arm or erupt against a shaky one.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kazuma Okamoto
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR vs BAL (6:35 PM ET) | Kazuma Okamoto | HR Yes (15¢) | $490.56 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Okamoto has been the American League's most productive rookie hitter in the second half, and he's sitting on 33 home runs in his first MLB season after signing out of Japan.
At 15¢, the market is pricing him under a 1-in-6 shot to go deep in any single game, which looks conservative given how often he's run into one lately.
This is the trade we like on the board tonight against a Baltimore pitching staff that has leaked home runs all year.
The ticket shown here bought Yes at an average price of 16¢ on a $100 order, slightly above the 15¢ board price since a $100 buy moves this size of market a touch.
At 16¢ average, $100 buys roughly 625 shares, each worth $1 if Okamoto connects, which lines up closely with Polymarket's listed $590.56 payout (the small gap comes from order book depth and fees, not an error).
- If Okamoto hits a home run: the position pays out $590.56, a profit of $490.56 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Almost 5-to-1 on a player running this hot is a shape worth taking, even though any single home run outcome stays inherently unpredictable.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Pete Alonso
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR vs BAL (6:35 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (19¢) | $398.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alonso left the Mets for a five-year deal with Baltimore over the winter, and he's rewarded the Orioles with 35-plus home runs and a franchise-record chase already checked off.
He's the highest-priced home run play on tonight's board at 19¢, which is exactly where a hitter with his track record and current form should sit.
The ticket here bought Yes at an average price of 19¢ on a $100 order, matching the board price almost exactly.
At 19¢, $100 buys around 526 shares, each worth $1 on a home run, tracking closely with Polymarket's listed $498.26 payout.
- If Alonso goes deep: the position pays out $498.26, a profit of $398.26 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Almost 4-to-1 on the game's most established power bat is a reasonable risk-reward shape, even against a Toronto staff that has quietly tightened up.
Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Washington (73-83) and Detroit (73-83) enter Monday with identical records and nothing but pride on the line.
The bigger story is on the mound: left-hander DJ Herz makes his first MLB start since September 2024 after a long Tommy John recovery, opposite Detroit's River Ryan, who's making his Tigers debut after arriving in the Tarik Skubal trade.
Both staffs are unproven in this exact matchup, and the market reflects that uncertainty across every line below.
Nationals vs Tigers Moneyline Odds
Nationals (44%, Yes 44¢): Washington's price climbed two points, which is notable given Herz is working back from a serious elbow injury and hasn't thrown a big-league pitch in two years.
Tigers (56%, Yes 56¢): Detroit remains the favorite even as the team has fallen out of playoff position, with River Ryan's unfamiliarity as the one wildcard working against that price.
Nationals vs Tigers Spread and Total
Detroit -1.5 (Yes 38¢ | No 62¢): This side dropped 12 points, a sizable swing that tracks with the uncertainty around two starters making unfamiliar first starts.
Over 8.5 Runs (Yes 48¢ | No 52¢): A near coin-flip total makes sense when neither starter has a real track record to lean on in this exact spot.
Best Home Run Prop Today – James Wood
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | James Wood | HR Yes (17¢) | $441.79 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Wood is having a legitimate MVP-caliber season, sitting near 30 home runs with an OPS pushing .900 and a Player of the Week award along the way.
This is the trade we're making tonight, since a two-time All-Star at 17¢ against a pitching staff still learning a brand new arm is exactly the kind of mismatch this market exists to find.
The ticket shown here bought Yes at an average price of 17.45¢ on a $100 order, just above the 17¢ board price.
At 17.45¢, $100 buys roughly 573 shares, each worth $1 on a home run, which lines up with Polymarket's listed $541.79 payout.
- If Wood connects: the position pays out $541.79, a profit of $441.79 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Spencer Torkelson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | Spencer Torkelson | HR Yes (15¢) | $529.46 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Torkelson has quietly rebuilt his power numbers this season after a rough stretch last year, and he'll see a left-hander making his return from a long injury layoff tonight.
At 15¢, the board gives him better than a 6-to-1 payout, a fair price against a starter who hasn't faced live big-league hitters in two years.
The ticket here bought Yes at an average price of 15¢ on a $100 order, matching the board price.
At 15¢, $100 buys roughly 667 shares, each worth $1 on a home run, which lines up closely with Polymarket's listed $629.46 payout.
- If Torkelson goes deep: the position pays out $629.46, a profit of $529.46 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 6-to-1 against an uncertain starter is a shape worth having exposure to, even if any single at-bat outcome stays a coin flip at best.
Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction
Minnesota (73-83) and San Francisco (64-92) are both long out of the playoff picture, but the home run board still has two live names worth a look.
Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74 ERA) starts for the Twins, opposite Blade Tidwell (1-2, 4.56 ERA) for a Giants team that has struggled to find pitching depth all year.
San Francisco's 64-92 record is the worst on tonight's slate, and it shows up across every line below.
Twins vs Giants Moneyline Odds
Twins (52%, Yes 52¢): Minnesota gained two points as the modest favorite, in line with a Giants offense that has been overmatched for most of September.
Giants (48%, Yes 48¢): San Francisco slipped four points, and a 64-92 record makes it hard to find a strong case against that move.
Twins vs Giants Spread and Total
Minnesota -1.5 (Yes 40¢ | No 60¢): This side dropped nine points, which tracks with a Giants lineup capable of scratching out enough offense to keep games within a run or two.
Over 8.5 Runs (Yes 47¢ | No 54¢): A near-even total fits two bullpens that have both had their share of late-season fatigue.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kody Clemens
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN vs SF (9:45 PM ET) | Kody Clemens | HR Yes (17¢) | $419.98 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Clemens has quietly turned into one of Minnesota's most valuable everyday bats since arriving from Philadelphia, sitting around 26 home runs on the year.
This is the trade we're making tonight against a Giants staff that has allowed home runs at one of the league's higher rates all season.
The ticket shown here bought Yes at an average price of 18.2¢ on a $100 order, above the 17¢ board price.
At 18.2¢, $100 buys roughly 549 shares, each worth $1 on a home run, which lines up with Polymarket's listed $519.98 payout.
- If Clemens connects: the position pays out $519.98, a profit of $419.98 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 4-to-1 on a player having a career year in the power department is a fair risk-reward shape for this spot.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Drew Gilbert
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN vs SF (9:45 PM ET) | Drew Gilbert | HR Yes (10¢) | $841.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Gilbert has had an up-and-down rookie run in San Francisco, and a 10¢ price reflects a hitter who's still finding his power stroke at the big-league level.
This is the longest shot on the board tonight, but the payout multiple more than compensates for the lower hit probability.
The ticket here bought Yes at an average price of 10¢ on a $100 order, matching the board price exactly.
At 10¢, $100 buys exactly 1,000 shares, each worth $1 on a home run, matching Polymarket's listed $941.10 payout almost exactly.
- If Gilbert goes deep: the position pays out $941.10, a profit of $841.10 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly 9-to-1 is a lottery-ticket shape, worth a small stake rather than a core position given how infrequently Gilbert has gone deep this year.
Beyond tonight's three games, Polymarket carries live home run markets across the rest of the MLB slate all season long, so today's six plays aren't the only MLB home run predictions today worth a look.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Runs
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MLB Predictions: Final Thoughts for Today's Slate
Six home run props across three games gives tonight's board plenty of texture, from a rookie phenom in Okamoto to a pure lottery ticket in Gilbert.
The Nationals-Tigers game stands out for reasons beyond the home run market too, with two pitchers making unfamiliar first starts in new uniforms.
Whichever of these MLB predictions you act on, check our full promo codes roundup first to make sure you're getting the best available offer.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.
Who is favored in tonight's three MLB games?
Baltimore and Toronto are dead even, Detroit is favored over Washington at 56%, and Minnesota is a modest favorite over San Francisco at 52%.
What is the most notable home run prop on the board tonight?
Drew Gilbert's Yes contract at 10¢ carries the longest odds and the biggest potential payout of the six picks in today's roundup.
How do these MLB home run predictions today actually work as contracts?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and No if they don't, with shares settling at $1 or $0 based on the outcome.
How accurate are MLB home run predictions today on Polymarket?
Prices reflect the market's real-time view of a player's odds, so they move with lineup news, weather, and recent form right up until first pitch, which generally makes them a sharper read than a fixed sportsbook line.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up through a link like the ones in this article, deposit at least $10, and the $50 trading bonus tied to code ACTION applies automatically.
When do tonight's home run markets resolve?
Each contract resolves shortly after its game ends, once the official box score confirms whether the named player recorded a home run.
Where can I find more MLB predictions after tonight?
Polymarket lists markets for every MLB game on the schedule, so tomorrow's slate will carry its own fresh set of home run, moneyline, spread, and total contracts.
