Best NFL Prop Bets Today | Chiefs vs Colts Prediction: Best NFL Player Props, Anytime TD Scorer (SNF Best Bets)

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in a Week 2 matchup that already looks lopsided on paper.

Kansas City opened its season with a Week 1 win, while Indianapolis was torched for 41 points and over 500 yards of offense in a blowout loss to Baltimore.

Here's the full slate of picks we're trading tonight, ranked from the highest implied probability down to the longest shot on the board:

Best NFL Player Props: Our Top Chiefs vs Colts Prediction Picks

Polymarket has this one priced heavily toward the Chiefs across the board, but Jonathan Taylor and a deep Colts skill-position group still give this Chiefs vs Colts prediction plenty of prop-bet texture.

Every pick below comes straight off a live Polymarket trade ticket, built around real trades our editor made rather than a generic "safe bets" list. These are the best NFL player props and best NFL prop bets today for this specific SNF window.

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Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – Jonathan Taylor

Taylor is the one Colts skill player who profiles as matchup-proof against this Chiefs defense. He led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns last season and remains Indianapolis' clear goal-line option.

Kansas City's defense ranked fifth in points allowed last year, but it still gave up 40 rushing yards and a score on the ground in Week 1. Taylor sees more volume than that in a normal week.

This is the trade we're making tonight: leaning on volume and red-zone role over a specific matchup edge.

Buying Yes at 58¢ with a $100 amount fills at an average price of 58¢, good for roughly 172.41 shares (100 ÷ 0.58). Each share pays $1 if Taylor scores.

The platform's listed To Win figure comes in at $167.51 rather than the full $172.41 in raw share value, a gap that reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error to reconcile.

• If Taylor scores any touchdown: the position resolves Yes, and the trade shows a profit of roughly $167.51 on the $100 stake.
• If Taylor doesn't find the end zone: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At close to even money, this is a lower-variance way to open an NFL player props ticket, less than a 2x payout multiple, but backed by real volume.

Best Fantasy Points (PPR) Prop Today – Kenneth Walker

Walker's Chiefs debut in Week 1 was exactly the workload Kansas City promised when it signed him this offseason, after he ran for 1,340 yards with Seattle last season.

Against a Colts run defense that just allowed 144 yards and a score on six yards a carry to Derrick Henry, 17-plus PPR points looks like a reasonable floor, not a ceiling.

Buying Yes at 58¢ with $100 fills at an average price of 58¢, roughly 172.41 shares (100 ÷ 0.58), each worth $1 if Walker clears the number.

The board lists the To Win figure at $167.51, slightly under the raw 172.41 share count, the usual order book and fee gap.

• If Walker tops 17 fantasy points: the position resolves Yes for a profit of roughly $167.51.
• If he falls short: the $100 stake is gone entirely.

A coin-flip-plus price for a workhorse back stepping into a beat-up Colts front seven.

Best Passing Touchdowns Prop Today – Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes looked fully healthy off the ACL injury in Week 1, running for two touchdowns himself and moving the ball well through the air.

A Colts secondary that just surrendered 324 yards and multiple scores through the air to Baltimore is exactly the kind of matchup that pushes a passing touchdowns prop toward the plus side.

Buying Yes at 52.98¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 188.75 shares (100 ÷ 0.5298).

The board's stated To Win comes in at $182.77, again a touch under the raw share count due to depth and fees.

• If Mahomes throws two or more touchdowns: profit of roughly $182.77 on the $100 stake.
• If he throws one or none: the $100 is lost.

Just over a coin flip, with a Colts pass defense that's given this market every reason to lean toward Kansas City's passing attack.

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Best Longest Reception Prop Today – Travis Kelce

Kelce led the Chiefs in targets last season with 103, and a chunk play of 20-plus yards is well within his range whenever Kansas City needs to move the chains quickly.

A Colts defense playing from behind for most of Week 1 is the kind of script that opens up seam and intermediate throws to the tight end.

Buying Yes at 55¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 181.82 shares (100 ÷ 0.55).

The listed To Win is $176.30, again slightly below the raw share math, the usual depth/fee gap.

• If Kelce's longest catch goes 20-plus yards: profit of roughly $176.30.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is lost.

A near coin-flip price on a target hog who's historically found chunk plays against defenses playing catch-up.

Best Rushing Yards Prop Today – Jonathan Taylor

This is the middle of our slate, and it's the pick we're doubling down on tonight. Taylor topped 20 pounding runs a game in stretches last season, and a Chiefs run defense giving up chunk carries in Week 1 opens the door to a big rushing day.

Even with Indianapolis likely playing from behind for long stretches, Taylor's workload rarely dips far below the volume needed to clear 90 yards, and game script actually pushes more early-down work his way before it flips to garbage-time passing downs.

Buying Yes at 47.99¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 208.38 shares (100 ÷ 0.4799).

The board lists the To Win figure at $201.12, a bit under raw share value, the usual order book/fee gap.

• If Taylor clears 90 rushing yards: profit of roughly $201.12 on the $100 stake.
• If he falls short: the full $100 is lost.

Slightly worse than even money, with just over a 2x payout multiple if Taylor's workload holds up the way it has all last season.

Best Receiving Yards Prop Today – Xavier Worthy

Worthy's speed is the single biggest matchup problem for an Indianapolis secondary that just allowed 150 yards to Baltimore's Zay Flowers, including snaps where he didn't even play the full game.

A downfield shot or two to Worthy against that kind of coverage is enough on its own to clear 40 yards.

Buying Yes at 49.11¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 203.62 shares (100 ÷ 0.4911).

The listed To Win figure is $196.66, a touch under raw share value, again the usual gap.

• If Worthy clears 40 receiving yards: profit of roughly $196.66.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

Right around a coin flip, with a little better than 2x payout if Worthy's speed shows up the way it has against overmatched corners.

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Best Passing Yards Prop Today – Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes threw for 63% completions at 7.1 yards an attempt last season, and this Colts pass defense hasn't shown anything yet to suggest it slows him down.

With Kansas City likely controlling the game script from ahead, 250-plus yards is more attainable than the market's 33% price suggests.

Buying Yes at 33¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 303.03 shares (100 ÷ 0.33).

The board's To Win figure lands at $289.54, a bit under the raw share count, the standard depth/fee gap.

• If Mahomes clears 250 passing yards: profit of roughly $289.54.
• If he falls short: the $100 stake is lost.

Nearly a 3x payout multiple on a number that looks soft against this Colts defense.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes already showed in Week 1 that his legs are back, scoring twice on the ground against Denver.

Against a Colts defense playing from behind, Kansas City has every incentive to let Mahomes pick up short-yardage scores himself rather than force it through the air.

Buying Yes at 23¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 434.78 shares (100 ÷ 0.23).

The listed To Win is $412.73, a bit under the raw share value, the usual gap tied to order book depth and fees.

• If Mahomes scores any touchdown himself: profit of roughly $412.73.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

A better than 4x payout multiple for a quarterback who's already shown a willingness to run it in this season.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – Keenan Allen

Allen's Polymarket receiving yards line sits at 76% to clear just 10 yards, evidence the board expects him to see real volume in the Colts' passing game.

Even without elite explosiveness at this stage of his career, that kind of target share against a defense that's given up chunks through the air is enough to make a touchdown a live outcome.

Buying Yes at 21¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 476.19 shares (100 ÷ 0.21).

The board's To Win figure comes in at $451.47, slightly under the raw share value, the usual gap.

• If Allen scores any touchdown: profit of roughly $451.47.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

A long-shot price with a payout north of 4.5x, leaning on target volume rather than a specific matchup edge.

Best First TD Scorer Prop Today – Rashee Rice

Rice carries the highest anytime touchdown price on the Chiefs' side of the board at 39%, and the first score of the game is naturally a narrower slice of that outcome.

Kansas City's offense has looked comfortable moving the ball early this season, and Rice profiles as one of the first read options in the red zone.

Buying Yes at 16¢ with $100 fills at that average price, roughly 625 shares (100 ÷ 0.16).

The board's To Win figure is $590.50, below the raw 625 share count, the usual order book depth and fee gap on a longer-shot price.

• If Rice scores the game's first touchdown: profit of roughly $590.50.
• If anyone else scores first, or no one scores in the first sequence that resolves the market: the $100 stake is lost.

The longest shot on our board tonight, but a nearly 6x payout multiple makes it a reasonable small-stakes swing to close out the picks.

Chiefs vs Colts Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts

Money Line contracts resolve simply: buy the side you think wins outright, and each share settles at $1 if that team wins, or $0 if it loses.

These contracts settle at the final score, regardless of margin, so a one-point win pays the same as a 30-point blowout.

Kansas City Chiefs (72%, Yes 72¢)

The Chiefs are 1-0 after a Week 1 win and get this game at home, where Mahomes already looked fully over the ACL injury that ended his season early. That's more than enough to justify a heavy favorite price.

Indianapolis Colts (28%, Yes 28¢)

Indianapolis is 0-1 after allowing 41 points and over 500 yards of offense to Baltimore in Week 1, and now travels to face a Chiefs team that just showed it can move the ball at will. The Colts' last win over Kansas City came back in the 2022 season.

SNF Best Bets: Chiefs vs Colts Total and Spread Predictions

Total: Over 46.5 (50%, Yes 50¢)

The total sits almost dead even at 46.5, reflecting a game where Kansas City is expected to score freely but Indianapolis' own offense, led by Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor, still has enough juice to add points of its own even if the Colts trail most of the night.

Spread: KC to win by over 6.5 (51%, Yes 51¢)

A near coin-flip price on the number itself despite the Chiefs' commanding 72% moneyline price shows the market expects this to be a comfortable Kansas City win without necessarily blowing the doors off, similar to the 8-point margin range in most of this matchup's recent history.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions and First TD Scorer Odds

Kansas City's touchdown board is deep and spread across the receiving corps, while Indianapolis leans almost entirely on Jonathan Taylor. Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so only the active side is shown below.

• Kenneth Walker (Anytime TD: Yes 67¢): The clear top target on the entire board, reflecting his early workload lead in the Chiefs backfield.
• Jonathan Taylor (Anytime TD: Yes 58¢): Indianapolis' entire goal-line game plan runs through him regardless of score.
• Tyquan Thornton (Anytime TD: Yes 14¢): A depth option who's carved out a role in the Colts' passing attack.
• Travis Kelce (Anytime TD: Yes 35¢): Still Kansas City's most trusted red-zone target even in a crowded receiving room.
• Rashee Rice (Anytime TD: Yes 39¢): The single highest anytime price on the Chiefs' side of the board.
• Xavier Worthy (Anytime TD: Yes 29¢): His speed alone makes him a threat on any given snap.
• Josh Downs (Anytime TD: Yes 21¢): Indianapolis' most consistent underneath target.
• Keenan Allen (Anytime TD: Yes 20¢): Priced as a real if secondary option in the Colts' passing game.
• Alec Pierce (Anytime TD: Yes 22¢): A boundary receiver who can turn a handful of targets into a score.
• Tyler Warren (Anytime TD: Yes 26¢): The rookie tight end already carving out a red-zone role.

Every other name on the anytime board, from Daniel Jones' scramble equity down to depth pieces like Noah Gray, Mo Alie-Cox, Emmett Johnson, DJ Giddens, and several practice-squad-adjacent names, sits priced in the single digits.

• Jonathan Taylor (First TD: Yes 21¢): The most likely single player to open the scoring for either team.
• Rashee Rice (First TD: Yes 16¢): Our Editor's Pick above, and the top Chiefs name to score first.
• Kenneth Walker (First TD: Yes 11¢): A live longshot given his early-game workload.
• Travis Kelce (First TD: Yes 5¢): Priced as a viable but unlikely first scorer.

Every other name on the first touchdown scorer board, including Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Tyler Warren, and the rest of the field, is bunched at 2-3¢.

Best NFL Player Props: Chiefs vs Colts QB Passing Predictions

Patrick Mahomes and Daniel Jones anchor every quarterback prop category on this board, and the pricing gap between the two reflects the matchups on either side of the ball.

Passing Touchdowns

Mahomes clears the market's threshold at both levels more often than Jones, in line with a Colts pass defense that's leaking touchdowns and a Chiefs defense that's forced Indianapolis to throw from behind.

Passing Yards

The two are nearly identical at the 225-yard floor, but Mahomes separates at the higher thresholds, another sign the market expects Kansas City to keep throwing even after building a lead.

Passing Completions

• Patrick Mahomes (20+ Completions: Yes 57%): A high floor given how often Kansas City is expected to be in rhythm through the air.
• Daniel Jones (22+ Completions: Yes 43%): Priced below a coin flip, reflecting a tougher Colts offensive script overall.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Chiefs vs Colts Receiving Yards Predictions

Both receiving rooms are deep, and this board reflects a genuinely spread-out passing attack on both sidelines rather than a single go-to target.

• Keenan Allen (10+ Receiving Yards: Yes 76%): The highest floor on the entire receiving board, showing the market expects heavy target volume.
• Tyquan Thornton (10+ Receiving Yards: Yes 61%): A solid floor for a Colts depth piece.
• Rashee Rice (50+ Receiving Yards: Yes 56%): Kansas City's top target continues to command a strong price even at a higher threshold.
• Noah Gray (10+ Receiving Yards: Yes 56%): A safe underneath option in the Chiefs' passing game.
• Travis Kelce (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 55%): Still a favorite to clear a meaningful chunk of yardage.
• Kenneth Walker (20+ Receiving Yards: Yes 52%): Extra receiving value on top of his rushing role.
• Josh Downs (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 52%): Indianapolis' most trusted underneath option.
• Jonathan Taylor (20+ Receiving Yards: Yes 37%): A modest receiving floor to pair with his rushing workload.
• Tyler Warren (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 45%): The rookie tight end already a real factor in the passing game.
• Alec Pierce (50+ Receiving Yards: Yes 45%): A boundary receiver who can hit this number on a couple of shot plays.
• Xavier Worthy (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 46%): Our Editor's Pick above, and a live shot at a chunk day against this Colts secondary.

Longest Reception

• Tyler Warren (15+ Yards: Yes 90%): An extremely high floor for a single catch of any real length.
• Josh Downs (15+ Yards: Yes 73%): A near-lock given his route depth in the Colts offense.
• Rashee Rice (20+ Yards: Yes 67%): Kansas City's top target is a safe bet to hit a chunk play at some point.
• Alec Pierce (25+ Yards: Yes 58%): His downfield role makes this a comfortable lean.
• Travis Kelce (20+ Yards: Yes 51%): Our Editor's Pick above, and priced as a true coin flip.

Chiefs vs Colts Rushing Yards Predictions

Kenneth Walker headlines this board in his second start with Kansas City, while Jonathan Taylor remains the engine of the Colts' entire offensive game plan.

• Kenneth Walker (80+ Rushing Yards: Yes 53%): A workload-driven number against a Colts run defense that just allowed 144 yards on the ground to Derrick Henry.
• Jonathan Taylor (90+ Rushing Yards: Yes 47%): Our Editor's Pick above, priced as slightly worse than even money despite his elite volume.
• Patrick Mahomes (20+ Rushing Yards: Yes 45%): His scrambling ability off the ACL injury already showed up in Week 1.

SNF Best Bets: Fantasy Points (PPR) Props for Chiefs vs Colts

This board rolls every category above into one number, and it lines up closely with the volume signals across the rest of the board.

• Kenneth Walker (Over 17: Yes 58%): Our Editor's Pick above, backed by both his rushing and receiving role.
• Keenan Allen (Over 8: Yes 55%): His target volume alone gets him most of the way to this number.
• Jonathan Taylor (Over 18: Yes 52%): A workload-driven price in line with his rushing and receiving props.
• Josh Downs (Over 10: Yes 52%): A steady floor from consistent underneath targets.
• Patrick Mahomes (Over 19: Yes 50%): A true coin flip for a passer who's already shown rushing upside this season.
• Daniel Jones (Over 15: Yes 49%): Priced just under even money given the tougher Colts offensive script.
• Tyler Warren (Over 11: Yes 49%): A fair number for a rookie tight end already seeing real volume.
• Travis Kelce (Over 11: Yes 48%): A touch below coin-flip odds for a target hog in a crowded room.
• Xavier Worthy (Over 10: Yes 48%): In line with his receiving yards prop above.
• Rashee Rice (Over 15: Yes 45%): Slightly below even money for Kansas City's top target.
• Alec Pierce (Over 12: Yes 45%): Consistent with his role as a boundary shot-play threat.

Chiefs vs Colts Prediction: What's Moving the Market

The biggest driver on this board is game script. Indianapolis just got run over defensively in Week 1, which pushes up every Chiefs offensive number while simultaneously keeping the Colts' passing volume alive as they play from behind.

Kenneth Walker's Chiefs debut and Patrick Mahomes' clean bill of health post-ACL are the two swing factors giving Kansas City's props their pricing edge across the board. You can read more about how these contracts are priced in our full Polymarket review.

On the Colts' side, Jonathan Taylor's workload is the one constant that keeps his props competitive even in a game Indianapolis is a heavy underdog to win outright.

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Chiefs vs Colts: Final Thoughts

This Chiefs vs Colts prediction leans heavily toward Kansas City across the main markets, but the best NFL player props on this board come from the Colts' skill players who profile as matchup-proof, especially Jonathan Taylor.

Check out the full prediction markets hub for more coverage like this across today's slate, and browse the supported prediction market apps if you're setting up your account for the first time.

Whichever side of the board you land on, tonight's SNF best bets offer a mix of near-coin-flip pricing and true long-shot value across almost every category.

Chiefs vs Colts FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.

Who is favored in the Chiefs vs Colts prediction?

Kansas City is priced at 72% on the moneyline, making the Chiefs a heavy favorite over Indianapolis in this Sunday Night Football matchup.

What is the best NFL player prop on this board?

Jonathan Taylor's anytime touchdown and 90-plus rushing yards props stand out as the best NFL player props tonight, given his workload against a Chiefs defense that's already shown some cracks against the run.

How accurate are Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Chiefs vs Colts?

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions on Polymarket are priced directly off trading activity, so they move in real time with news, injuries, and game flow rather than sitting fixed like a traditional sportsbook prop.

How do Polymarket contracts work?

Each contract resolves to $1 if the outcome happens or $0 if it doesn't, and the price you see (in cents) reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.

What was the Editor's Pick tonight?

Our Editor's Picks section covers 10 separate trades, led by Jonathan Taylor's anytime touchdown prop at 58%, along with his 90-plus rushing yards prop as the piece's other featured trade.

When does this market resolve?

The market resolves shortly after the final whistle of the Chiefs vs Colts game on Sunday Night Football, once the official box score is confirmed.