Home run props are moving fast across Polymarket's board on this stacked Thursday slate, from Munetaka Murakami's early-afternoon matinee in Chicago to Shohei Ohtani closing the night in Los Angeles.
Eleven games are on tap, and that volume makes this one of the deepest boards yet for MLB Home Run Predictions Today across the site.
Here is a full breakdown of the best home run bets today, built around all 15 individual Polymarket tickets worth trading across the slate.
White Sox vs Royals Prediction
Chicago sends Shane Sandlin (2-2, 6.29 ERA) to the mound against Kansas City's Jordan Dobnak (3-4, 3.08 ERA), a clear edge for the Royals' pitching staff on paper.
That run-prevention gap is exactly why Murakami's price sits where it does, and it makes this one of the best home run bets today for anyone tracking a rookie slugger working through a rough patch.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Munetaka Murakami
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHW vs KC (2:10 PM ET) | Munetaka Murakami | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Murakami's rookie season has been a genuine tale of two halves.
He hit 20 home runs with a .911 OPS over his first 60 games, then cooled to a .709 OPS with just 12 homers since the All-Star break.
The White Sox have reportedly paused extension talks with him over that recent slump, and the market's 19¢ price reflects a rookie who is no longer an automatic bet to leave the yard on a given night.
That's a fair discount against a right-hander in Dobnak who has kept his own ERA respectable, but Murakami is still a left-handed bat capable of turning a mistake pitch into a souvenir.
On the ticket itself, the $100 buy at a 19¢ average price works out to roughly 526 shares, each worth $1 if Murakami connects.
- If Murakami goes deep: profit of $498.26.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's close to a 5-to-1 payout on a player who's still shown flashes of the power that made him a Japanese home run record-holder, even if the last two months argue for caution.
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Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
Miami's Janson Phillips (5-6, 3.45 ERA) squares off with Chicago's Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06 ERA), a lefty who has been homer-prone at points this season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has developed into one of the Cubs' most dangerous middle-of-the-order threats, and a Marlins pitching staff that's given up its share of contact makes this a workable price.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA vs CHC (2:20 PM ET) | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Crow-Armstrong's blend of power and speed has made him a weekly fixture on these boards, and a 16¢ price against a division rival he sees often is squarely in line with his season-long home run rate.
A $100 buy at 16¢ converts to roughly 625 shares, so a winning trade pays out at close to 6-to-1.
- If he connects: profit of $590.50.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Mets vs Rangers Prediction
New York throws Reese Thornton (5-5, 3.40 ERA) while Texas counters with Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.47 ERA), and the Rangers' rotation has been susceptible to the long ball for most of the second half.
Juan Soto is red-hot right now, and Josh Jung is a lower-probability but higher-payout play from the same lineup on the other side.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Juan Soto
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM vs TEX (2:35 PM ET) | Juan Soto | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Soto just hit a two-run homer on Tuesday night against Texas pitching, a 429-foot blast to right-center, and he's carrying real momentum into this rematch.
A 22¢ price against a Rangers rotation that's leaked homers down the stretch looks like fair value on one of the league's most consistent power bats.
A $100 buy at 22¢ works out to roughly 454 shares of upside.
- If Soto goes deep again: profit of $431.18.
- If not: the full stake is lost.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Josh Jung
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM vs TEX (2:35 PM ET) | Josh Jung | HR Yes (10¢) | $941.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Jung is the long-shot flip side of this same game, a third baseman with real raw power but a much lower floor against a Mets pitching staff that's been tougher on righties.
A $100 buy at 10¢ buys roughly 1,000 shares, which is where that nearly 10-to-1 payout comes from.
- If Jung connects: profit of $941.10.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction
Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez (15-7, 2.89 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, while Colorado's Tanner Gordon (1-5, 6.01 ERA) has struggled badly on the mound.
That imbalance shows up directly in these two Diamondbacks prices, with Hunter Goodman and Gabriel Moreno both feasting on a Rockies staff that's allowed contact all season.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Hunter Goodman
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs COL (3:10 PM ET) | Hunter Goodman | HR Yes (21¢) | $451.42 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Goodman has quietly turned into one of Colorado's more reliable power threats, and a 21¢ price on the road against a dominant Diamondbacks lefty is more about park factors and recent form than any real weakness in Rodriguez's stuff.
A $100 buy at 21¢ buys roughly 476 shares.
- If Goodman homers: profit of $451.42.
- If not: the stake is gone.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Gabriel Moreno
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs COL (3:10 PM ET) | Gabriel Moreno | HR Yes (14.25¢) | $662.53 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Moreno doesn't have Goodman's raw power, so the market prices him lower, but he's a quality contact hitter capable of catching one of Gordon's mistakes over a short porch.
A $100 buy at 14.25¢ works out to roughly 702 shares.
- If Moreno homers: profit of $662.53.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely.
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
Milwaukee's starter was still TBD as of this board, while Philadelphia sends out Andrew Painter (3-10, 5.59 ERA), a rough season by his ERA but a talented young arm the Brewers' lineup will still need to solve.
Kyle Schwarber has made a career out of punishing exactly this kind of matchup, and this is one of the best home run bets today for anyone who wants a proven slugger at a reasonable number.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs PHI (6:05 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (22.25¢) | $426.42 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schwarber has been one of the most consistent home run threats in baseball for years, and a 22.25¢ price is right around where his season-long rate would suggest against a Phillies staff still working a young starter into form.
A $100 buy at 22.25¢ buys roughly 449 shares.
- If Schwarber connects: profit of $426.42.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost.
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction
Cleveland turns to Gavin Espino (0-0, 4.73 ERA) in a fresh look, while Boston counters with Ranger Suarez (8-4, 3.27 ERA), a strong lefty the Guardians will need to work around.
Jo Adell has had his ups and downs as a hitter, but he's shown enough raw power this year to make a low-probability price like this worth a look.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE vs BOS (6:45 PM ET) | Jo Adell | HR Yes (12¢) | $785.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell's 12¢ price reflects a tough lefty-on-lefty look against Suarez, but his bat speed gives him a puncher's chance even in an unfavorable matchup.
A $100 buy at 12¢ buys roughly 833 shares.
- If Adell homers: profit of $785.33.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction
Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.38 ERA) draws a brutal assignment against Cam Schlittler, who has been outstanding for New York at 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA.
Ben Rice has developed real thump against right-handed pitching, and even in a tough spot for the offense as a whole, his individual price stands out.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (7:05 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schlittler's sub-2.00 ERA makes this a tough night for the Rays lineup, so we're going with Ben Rice on the Yanks to leave the yard against a much easier adversary.
A $100 buy at 16¢ buys roughly 625 shares.
- If Rice connects: profit of $590.50.
- If not: the full stake is lost.
Reds vs Braves Prediction
Cincinnati's Brady Singer (6-15, 5.67 ERA) has had a difficult season, and Atlanta's Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.81 ERA) has been the steadier arm, which lines up with the pricing gap between these two Braves and Reds home run props, one of the best home run bets today for backing the better lineup spot.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Matt Olson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs ATL (7:15 PM ET) | Matt Olson | HR Yes (23¢) | $412.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Olson gets a favorable look against a Reds starter who's allowed a 5.67 ERA this season, and a 23¢ price is squarely in line with a first baseman who does damage against exactly that kind of pitching.
A $100 buy at 23¢ buys roughly 435 shares.
- If Olson homers: profit of $412.69.
- If not: the stake is gone.
Best Home Run Prop Today ��� Elly De La Cruz
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs ATL (7:15 PM ET) | Elly De La Cruz | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
De La Cruz brings elite bat speed to every at-bat, and while Mahle has been effective this year, one mistake pitch is all it takes for a hitter with this kind of ceiling.
A $100 buy at 18¢ buys roughly 556 shares.
- If De La Cruz connects: profit of $525.61.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely.
Astros vs Athletics Prediction
Houston's Phillip Lambert (8-10, 3.70 ERA) has been reliable, while the Athletics' Cole Barnett (1-4, 7.16 ERA) has struggled all year, and that gap is exactly why Yordan Alvarez is the highest-priced home run prop on the entire slate.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs ATH (9:40 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (30¢) | $317.86 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alvarez has been one of the most productive power hitters in the sport all year, and a 7.16 ERA from Barnett gives him exactly the kind of matchup his profile is built to exploit.
This is the highest implied probability on the whole board tonight, and it's priced that way for good reason given how often Alvarez has punished shaky right-handed pitching.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at 30¢ works out to roughly 333 shares, each worth $1 if Alvarez connects.
- If Alvarez homers: profit of $317.86.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's closer to a 3-to-1 payout, the lowest multiple on the slate, but also the surest thing on the board tonight against a struggling Athletics arm.
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Best Home Run Prop Today – Shea Langeliers
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs ATH (9:40 PM ET) | Shea Langeliers | HR Yes (24.3¢) | $391.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Langeliers has developed into a genuine power threat behind the plate for Oakland's transitional roster, and this price is more about the Astros' strong pitching staff than any weakness in his bat.
A $100 buy at 24.3¢ buys roughly 412 shares.
- If Langeliers homers: profit of $391.00.
- If not: the stake is lost entirely.
Angels vs Mariners Prediction
Los Angeles sends Gerardo Rodriguez (4-8, 5.96 ERA) up against Seattle's Bryan Woo (12-9, 3.92 ERA), a tough assignment for the Angels' lineup as a whole, though that doesn't stop Cal Raleigh from being a threat on any given swing.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Cal Raleigh
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAA vs SEA (9:40 PM ET) | Cal Raleigh | HR Yes (21¢) | $451.42 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Raleigh has been one of baseball's premier power-hitting catchers all season, and a 21¢ price against a struggling Angels right-hander in Rodriguez looks like real value given his season-long home run rate.
A $100 buy at 21¢ buys roughly 476 shares.
- If Raleigh homers: profit of $451.42.
- If not: the stake is gone.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
San Diego's Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.30 ERA) closes out the night against Los Angeles' Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.46 ERA), and Shohei Ohtani headlines the final home run prop on the board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD vs LAD (10:10 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (23¢) | $412.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ohtani's home run total is down from his 2025 peak, but he's been in the middle of an excellent stretch at the plate since mid-May, and a 23¢ price against a Padres bullpen game late at night is a reasonable number for a hitter of his caliber.
A $100 buy at 23¢ buys roughly 435 shares.
- If Ohtani homers: profit of $412.69.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.
Beyond this slate, more games and more home run props are live on Polymarket every night of the season.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Runs
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MLB Home Runs: Final Thoughts
This is one of the deeper slates of MLB Home Run Predictions Today the board has offered all month, with 11 games and 15 individually priced tickets spanning everything from Yordan Alvarez's 30¢ favorite to Josh Jung's long-shot 10¢ flier.
The through-line across the board tonight is pitching quality: the best home run bets today all line up with pitchers carrying ERAs north of 4.50, while the shorter prices tend to sit against the slate's stronger arms.
For more context on how these markets work compared to a traditional sportsbook, the prediction markets hub and the prediction market apps guide are both useful starting points.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus! for new traders.
What are the best home run bets today on Polymarket?
Yordan Alvarez (30¢) carries the highest implied probability on the board, while Josh Jung (10¢) and Munetaka Murakami (19¢) offer the largest payout multiples among the best home run bets today.
Who are the biggest home run favorites on today's MLB slate?
Yordan Alvarez, Shea Langeliers, and Matt Olson carry the three highest prices on the board, each tied to a favorable pitching matchup on paper.
What are the best MLB Home Run Predictions Today on Polymarket?
Across all 11 games, the strongest MLB Home Run Predictions Today favor hitters facing pitchers with ERAs above 4.50, led by Yordan Alvarez against Oakland's Cole Barnett.
Where can I find reliable MLB Predictions for tonight's full slate?
This roundup covers MLB Predictions for every home run prop live on Polymarket tonight, sourced directly from the live order book rather than a fixed sportsbook line.
How accurate are MLB Predictions built from Polymarket pricing?
Polymarket prices reflect real money changing hands in real time, so MLB Predictions built from this board tend to move quickly with lineup news, weather, and bullpen usage.
How do Polymarket home run contracts resolve?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and No otherwise; shares settle at $1 or $0 with no partial outcomes.
When do today's MLB games start?
Tonight's slate spans an early-afternoon window through a late West Coast finale, with games staggered from the early games through the night's late window.
Which Editor's Pick carries the best risk/reward tonight?
Munetaka Murakami's 19¢ ticket offers close to a 5-to-1 payout, while Yordan Alvarez's 30¢ ticket is the safer, lower-multiple play of the two flagship picks.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code ACTION?
Enter promo code ACTION when creating a new Polymarket account through the linked offer to unlock the $50 trading bonus before placing any of tonight's home run tickets.
