Kalshi TD Scorer Predictions: Best Anytime TD, First TD Props for TNF Falcons-Packers

Thursday Night Football sends the 0-2 Atlanta Falcons to Lambeau Field to face the 1-1 Green Bay Packers at 8:15 p.m. ET, and Kalshi has both touchdown scorer boards open for the game: anytime touchdown and first touchdown of the game. Twenty-plus players carry a tradeable price on each.

The hooks here are unusual. Christian Watson has three touchdown catches in Green Bay's first two games, and he is priced at just 38¢. Atlanta, meanwhile, has yet to run a single play inside an opponent's 20-yard line, making the Falcons the first team since the 2008 Rams to go two full games without a red zone snap. That has not stopped the market from making Bijan Robinson the shortest contract on the board at 55¢. And Michael Penix Jr. is cleared to start, his first game since November, which is the single biggest variable on the Atlanta side of both markets.

Below is the full board with the anytime and first touchdown prices side by side, ranked by anytime price, followed by a player-by-player breakdown of where the numbers look light, where they look rich, and what the gap between the two markets is telling you.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

This is a game between two offenses that cannot finish drives, which is exactly why the whole board sits lower than you might expect for a primetime matchup. Atlanta carries an NFL-worst team passer rating of 38.2 through two weeks, and its wide receivers and tight ends have combined for 17 catches, 173 receiving yards and zero touchdowns, the fewest among every WR and TE group in the league.

Green Bay has the opposite problem. The Packers managed just 63 rushing yards as a team against the Jets, with both Kaleb Johnson and MarShawn Lloyd fumbling, yet Matt LaFleur still called a run on the first play of a drive 67% of the time in that game. A stalled early-down run game and a first touchdown market are not natural partners.

One note before the individual reads: Kalshi's anytime board is labeled for touchdowns excluding passing, so a quarterback only cashes on a rushing score. The first touchdown board covers the opening touchdown by either team, and Kalshi lists separate team-specific first touchdown markets alongside it.

Top Kalshi TD Prop Today – Christian Watson

Watson is the Editor's Pick, and the case is simple. He is the only player in this game who has actually been scoring, and both of the numbers next to his name treat him as though he has not. At 38% (38¢) on anytime and 10% (10¢) on first, the board is asking for a discount on the hottest scorer on the field.

The matchup reinforces it. Atlanta's secondary is limping, with cornerback A.J. Terrell placed on injured reserve, and Bryce Young carved that group up for 287 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2, going 8-of-11 for 197 yards on throws of 10-plus yards. Watson's scores this year have come on short throws inside the 5, which is the profile that plays on an opening drive, not just a garbage-time one.

A $100 buy at 38¢ gets you roughly 263 shares, each worth $1.00 if he finds the end zone. The same $100 at 10¢ on the first touchdown market buys about 1,000 shares. Kalshi charges a per-trade fee that scales with contract price, and order book depth on a primetime prop can move your average fill, so treat both headline figures as a ceiling rather than a quote.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If Watson finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $163.16 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

First TD resolution:

• If Watson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $900.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Watson scores three times later in the game.

That is roughly a 2.6x multiple on the anytime side and a 10x multiple on the first, and of the two, the first touchdown price is the one doing less work to justify itself.

Today's Almost Certain Touchdown Prop – Bijan Robinson

Robinson is the clear favorite at 55% (55¢), and for the usual reasons: he is the centerpiece of a run-heavy Kevin Stefanski offense and he opened the year with 173 yards of total offense and the Falcons' only touchdown in Week 1. He has 37 carries for 155 yards and no rushing touchdown through two games.

Here is the problem with 55¢. An anytime touchdown contract is a red zone prop, and Atlanta has not had a red zone snap all season. Green Bay's front has been stingy, and the Falcons are walking into a defense that has held opponents to a fifth-best mark in yards allowed per game. Penix should raise Atlanta's floor, but asking a quarterback in his first game in 10 months to solve a top-five defense at Lambeau is a lot to build into a price above even money. This reads rich.

The first touchdown number is the more interesting of the pair. A $100 position at 16¢ buys roughly 625 shares, and if Atlanta scripts its opening drive around its one reliable player, Robinson is the likeliest name on it. Net of fees, the realized figure lands a little under the headline.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If Robinson finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $81.82 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

First TD resolution:

• If Robinson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $525.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

Roughly 1.8x on the anytime and 6.25x on the first: the shortest price on the board is also the one carrying the most matchup risk, and the longer of his two contracts is the better-shaped position.

Best Green Bay Touchdown Prop Today – Tucker Kraft

Fair is the verdict on Kraft at 32% (32¢), with a mild lean toward light. He is one of only three tight ends since 2000 to post 100-plus catches, 1,500-plus yards and 15-plus receiving touchdowns in his first three seasons, alongside Mark Andrews and Rob Gronkowski, and he signed an extension last week.

The caution is recent form and target competition. Kraft caught two of three targets for 15 yards against the Jets and has finished under four receptions in both games, and Jonnu Smith has been drawing targets in the same tight end packages. If Green Bay finally leans into the rhythm passing game its personnel calls for, Kraft is the beneficiary close to the goal line.

A $100 buy at 32¢ is about 313 shares on anytime; at 9¢ on the first touchdown market you get roughly 1,111. Fees and fill quality shave the net on both.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If Kraft finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $212.50 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

First TD resolution:

• If Kraft scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

3.1x anytime, 11.1x first. The tight end is the natural answer when a team keeps stalling at the 25, and this is the cheapest way to express that.

Best First Touchdown Prop Today – Drake London

London at 32% (32¢) is the purest Penix prop on the board. He caught two passes in the opener and four in Week 2 and was visibly frustrated on the sideline, and in Penix's most recent full game he was targeted eight times. The quarterback upgrade is real and it points almost entirely at him.

Whether it converts into a touchdown is another matter, given Atlanta has not run a play inside the 20 yet. The 8¢ first touchdown price is also the lowest ratio to an anytime number on the whole board, which says the market sees London as a volume scorer rather than an opening-drive one.

Roughly 313 shares at 32¢, or 1,250 shares at 8¢, with fees and depth taking a bite out of each.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If London finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $212.50 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

First TD resolution:

• If London scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,150.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

The anytime contract at 3.1x is the one worth holding; the 12.5x on the first touchdown asks a receiver whose offense has not seen the red zone to be the man who breaks the seal.

Best Kalhi Touchdown Prop for Green Bay WRs – Matthew Golden

Golden at 31% (31¢) is the volume play in this passing game. He out-targeted Watson in the Week 1 loss to Minnesota despite Watson's two-touchdown night, and he led Green Bay's pass catchers against the Jets. With Jayden Reed ruled out for Thursday with a neck injury, the target tree gets shorter still.

The reason he is not higher is that the targets have not been scores. Golden's work has come between the 20s, and this price is effectively asking you to trade that the first one arrives tonight against a defense missing its top cornerback.

About 323 shares at 31¢, or roughly 1,250 at 8¢. As always, the fee schedule and available liquidity determine what you actually net.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If Golden finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $222.58 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

First TD resolution:

• If Golden scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,150.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

Call it 3.2x and 12.5x respectively, a reasonable risk/reward shape on the anytime side for the most-targeted receiver in the building.

Top Kalshi TD Prop for Green Bay Running Backs – Kaleb Johnson

This is the most genuinely uncertain price on the board, and 30% (30¢) is a fair reflection of that. Johnson arrived by trade from Pittsburgh the same day Jacobs went on the commissioner's exempt list, played no offensive snaps in Week 1, then logged eight carries for 32 yards in Week 2. He showed flashes against the Jets before fumbling.

Three backs are splitting this work. Lloyd played 44% of snaps in Week 1 and just 27% in Week 2, and Chris Brooks, long a blocking specialist, has actually been on the field most among the group this season. Nobody in Green Bay has claimed the goal line, which is why Johnson, Lloyd and the 21¢ on Brooks are all priced like coin flips within a three-man rotation.

Roughly 333 shares at 30¢ and 1,250 at 8¢, before fees and fill.

Anytime TD resolution:

• If Johnson finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $233.33 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

First TD resolution:

• If Johnson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,150.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost.

A 3.3x multiple on a back who may or may not be the guy at the 2-yard line: that is a small-stake position, not a conviction one.

Elsewhere on the board, Kyle Pitts Sr. sits at 19¢ anytime and 5¢ first, Brian Robinson Jr. at 16¢ and 4¢, Jordan Love at 12¢ and 3¢ on rushing scores only, and Jonnu Smith and Jahan Dotson both at 11¢ and 3¢. The defenses are live too, with each D/ST around 11¢ anytime and 4¢ to open the scoring, and the No Touchdown contract on the first TD board is priced under 1%. Kalshi also has 2-plus and 3-plus touchdown markets open for most of these players, plus separate first Atlanta and first Green Bay touchdown boards.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions with Kalshi Code ACTION2000

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the Player Props tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

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NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme is compression. Outside Robinson at 55¢, nothing on the anytime board clears 38¢, and that is what a total in the low 40s between two teams that cannot finish drives looks like when it gets priced into individual scorers.

The prices that look soft relative to actual production are Watson at 38¢ and Kraft at 32¢, both against a secondary that just surrendered three touchdown passes and has since lost its top cornerback. The price that reflects real uncertainty rather than a mispricing is the Green Bay backfield, where Johnson, Lloyd and Brooks sit at 30¢, 30¢ and 21¢ because no one has taken the short-yardage job.

The most useful thing in comparing the two boards is the ratio. Nearly every skill-position player's first touchdown price lands between 25% and 29% of his anytime price, a band tight enough to suggest the first touchdown market is being derived largely off the anytime one rather than modeled separately. The exceptions are informative: London and Brian Robinson Jr. sit at the bottom of that range, while both D/ST contracts sit well above it, at roughly 36% of their anytime prices. That is a read on how the board is built, not a certainty, and the honest version is that a defensive or return score is genuinely more likely to be a one-off early strike than a late one.

One mechanical note worth knowing: on a few rows the displayed probability and the Yes ask differ by a cent, because the percentage reflects the last traded level while the ask is what the order book will actually sell you. The ask is the number you pay. Lineup and injury news can reprice this whole board in minutes before an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, so it is worth watching through the prediction market apps.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This is a cheap board, and that is the character of it. The anytime market runs from 55¢ down to a penny, and the first touchdown market tops out at Robinson's 16¢, which means almost every contract on the first TD side is a longshot paying 10x or better.

Treat them accordingly. A 12.5x payout is a function of a low probability, not free money, and the first touchdown board in particular is a small-stake board rather than a slate to spread evenly at full size. Each contract is an independent all-or-nothing position, not a parlay, and a player can score three times and still resolve your first touchdown trade at zero.

If you want one number to carry into kickoff, it is Watson's 38¢ on the anytime market and the 10¢ that sits beside it. Three touchdowns in two games against a depleted secondary is the clearest gap between price and production on this board.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Props: Kalshi Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Kalshi promo code and offer?

The current Kalshi offer is rendered live on this page. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000to claim it and Trade $25, Get up to $2000!

What are the best touchdown props on the Falcons vs Packers board today?

Christian Watson at 38¢ on anytime touchdown is the standout, with Tucker Kraft at 32¢ the secondary look. On the first touchdown board, Watson at 10¢ and Kraft at 9¢ carry the same logic at much longer prices.

Which player carries the highest implied probability?

Bijan Robinson, at 55% (55¢) to score at any point and 16% (16¢) to score the game's opening touchdown. Both are the highest on their respective boards.

How do Kalshi anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

You buy Yes or No shares priced in cents from 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and each contract settles all-or-nothing at $1.00 or $0. Kalshi's board here covers touchdowns excluding passing, so a quarterback resolves Yes only on a rushing score.

Does a first touchdown contract pay if my player scores later in the game?

No. A first touchdown contract resolves Yes only if that player scores the first touchdown of the game by either team. A player who scores three times but not the opening one resolves No, and the full stake is lost. This is the single most common misunderstanding on these markets.

Why are first touchdown prices so much lower than anytime prices?

Because the path is far narrower. Anytime asks whether a player scores at all across four quarters; first touchdown asks whether he is the one specific player, out of roughly two dozen candidates plus both defenses, who scores before anyone else. On this board most players' first touchdown prices land near a quarter of their anytime price, which is why the payout multiples run three to four times larger.

How do I claim the promo and start trading?

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When do these contracts settle?

Both boards settle after the game concludes and results are official. First touchdown contracts are determined by the opening score, and anytime contracts by whether the player scored at any point.

What is the Editor's Pick and why?

Christian Watson, on both boards. He has three touchdown catches in Green Bay's first two games, his scores have come from inside the 5, and Atlanta's secondary allowed three touchdown passes in Week 2 before losing A.J. Terrell to injured reserve. At 38¢ anytime and 10¢ on the first touchdown, neither price reflects that.

Are more markets available beyond anytime and first touchdown?

Yes. Kalshi also lists 2-plus and 3-plus touchdown markets for most of these players, separate first Atlanta and first Green Bay touchdown boards, plus passing, receiving, rushing and fantasy points props for this game. Trading is 21+ and is not available in every state, and eligibility rules vary.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.