Falcons vs Packers Novig TD Props: Top TNF Anytime TD and First TD Props

Week 3 of the NFL Season opens at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football, where the 0-2 Atlanta Falcons visit the 1-1 Green Bay Packers at 8:15 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video. Novig has two touchdown scorer markets live on the game, and both are busy: roughly $114,000 traded on the Anytime TDs Scored board and about $121,000 on First Touchdown Scorer.

Bijan Robinson sits at the top of both boards after handling 48 touches in two weeks. Christian Watson has scored in each of Green Bay's first two games. Tucker Kraft draws an Atlanta defense that has already surrendered three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start in 10 months for a Falcons offense that has not run a single snap in the red zone this season.

Below is the full board ranked by anytime price, with the matching first touchdown contract beside it, the payout on a $100 position, and a read on which numbers look light. Note that the first TD payouts run far higher than the anytime figures, because those contracts require the opening score of the game by either team.

Sign up with Novig promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get $25 in Trade Credits!

Bijan Robinson Touchdown Prediction

Robinson has been the only functioning part of Atlanta's offense. He piled up 173 yards on 29 touches in the Week 1 loss at Pittsburgh, including the receiving score that accounted for the Falcons' only trip to the end zone, then added 16 carries for 72 yards and three catches in Week 2 while playing just 51% of the snaps in a game Carolina put away early.

Green Bay has conceded 56 points in two weeks and is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. Penix's return should at least keep the ball in Robinson's hands late this time.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – Bijan Robinson

At 57% (57¢) he is the shortest price on either board, and that is a fair read on volume rather than a soft number. The complication is that Brian Robinson Jr. was reported to have Atlanta's primary goal-line role this season, and the Falcons have not taken a single snap inside an opponent's 20 through two games, so the cleanest scoring path for the starter still runs through a long run or a catch.

A $100 position at 57¢ buys roughly 175 shares, each worth $1.00 on a Yes resolution, for $75.44 in profit. The 16¢ first touchdown contract buys about 625 shares and returns $525.00, though order book depth and fees can shave a little off both figures.

• Anytime: If Robinson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $75.44 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Robinson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $525.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Robinson scores later in the game.

That shapes up as roughly a 1.8x payout multiple on the anytime side and 6.3x on the opener, and the first TD number is the more interesting of the two given he is the only player on that board above 11%.

Christian Watson Touchdown Prediction

Watson has three touchdowns in two games and played nearly 90% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 2. He has drawn 19 targets from Jordan Love and is averaging 2.98 yards per route run, and with Jayden Reed ruled out on a neck injury that has no timeline, the passing game narrows to Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft.

Atlanta arrives without cornerback A.J. Terrell, who is on injured reserve, and has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Tetairoa McMillan went for 101 yards on this secondary last week.

Best GB WR Touchdown Prop Today – Christian Watson

Thirty-seven percent (37¢) reads light for a receiver who has scored in every game this season and just inherited a larger share of a thinner target tree. The counterweight is Love's accuracy, since Watson has caught only 10 of those 19 targets, so this profile scores in bunches rather than reliably.

A $100 position at 37¢ works out to about 270 shares and $170.27 in profit, while the 11¢ opener buys roughly 909 shares for $809.09.

• Anytime: If Watson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $170.27 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Watson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $809.09 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Watson scores later in the game.

Roughly 2.7x on the anytime contract is the best risk and reward shape among the Green Bay pass catchers, and the 9.1x opener is a defensible small-stake add given how he has been used in the first quarter.

Drake London Touchdown Prediction

London has six catches for 80 yards on 10 targets and no touchdowns, which says more about Cooper Rush and Jack Strand than about the receiver. His target share has been stuck at 18% in the league's worst offense by EPA per play.

Penix changes the math. Across 14 career games together, London has averaged 6.5 catches and 92 yards with eight or more targets in 12 of them, and Green Bay drops into zone on close to 80% of its snaps against a receiver who ranks inside the top 10 against zone coverage this season.

Best ATL WR Touchdown Prop Today – Drake London

The gap between his two prices is the most instructive thing on the board. London is level with Kraft at 33% (33¢) on anytime but a full cent below him at 8% (8¢) on the opener, which is the market saying it expects Atlanta to need a while to get there. Given the quarterback upgrade and his size advantage in the end zone, the anytime number looks like the one that is light.

A $100 buy at 33¢ is roughly 303 shares for $203.03 in profit, while the 8¢ contract buys about 1,250 shares and returns $1,150.00.

• Anytime: If London finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $203.03 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If London scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,150.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if London scores later in the game.

Call it 3.0x on the anytime side, which is the number worth taking here, with the 12.5x opener a genuinely narrow path for an offense still looking for its first red zone snap.

Tucker Kraft Touchdown Prediction (Editor's Pick)

Kraft scored six times in eight games last season before an injury ended his year, and he has 13 touchdowns across his last 26 games dating back to 2024. His snap rate has climbed from 66% in Week 1 to 98.3% in Week 2, and Love has already looked his way nine times.

The matchup is the part the price does not respect. Atlanta gave up a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth in Week 1 and two more to Darren Waller in Week 2, and with Reed out, Kraft is arguably the second most important piece of this passing game.

Best TE Touchdown Prop Today – Tucker Kraft

This is the Editor's Pick, and 33% (33¢) is the softest number on the anytime board relative to the matchup in front of it. A tight end playing essentially every snap, scoring once every two games, against a defense that has allowed three touchdowns to the position in two weeks should not be priced level with a receiver who has yet to score.

The $100 position buys about 303 shares at 33¢ for $203.03 in profit, and roughly 1,111 shares at 9¢ for $1,011.11 on the opener, less a small haircut if the book thins out near kickoff.

• Anytime: If Kraft finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $203.03 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Kraft scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Kraft scores later in the game.

Roughly 3.0x anytime on the best matchup on the board is the cleanest position of the night, with the 11.1x opener a reasonable small-stake companion for a red zone target in a scripted passing game.

Sign up with Novig promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get $25 in Trade Credits!

Matthew Golden Touchdown Prediction

Golden has cleared 55 receiving yards in both games while commanding a 25.4% target share, which is the largest on the team, and he sits one target behind Watson overall. Reed's absence pushes more of that volume his way at Lambeau.

What he has not done yet is score, and that is the story of his price. Green Bay's problem has not been moving the ball, it has been finishing, and Golden is not the player this offense looks for inside the 10.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – Matthew Golden

Five cents behind Watson on anytime and level with him on the opener is a coherent read: Golden gets the routes, Watson gets the end zone looks. At 32% (32¢) the number is fair rather than soft.

Roughly 313 shares come back on a $100 buy at 32¢, worth $212.50 in profit, with about 1,111 shares and $1,011.11 available on the 9¢ opener.

• Anytime: If Golden finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $212.50 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Golden scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Golden scores later in the game.

About 3.1x anytime is fair value rather than an edge, and the 11.1x opener carries more appeal than the anytime contract if you believe Green Bay scripts an early shot play.

MarShawn Lloyd Touchdown Prediction

Lloyd is listed as the starter and scored through the air against the Jets, but the usage is not that of a lead back. He has 19 carries on the season, his snap rate fell from 44% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 2, and he did not touch the ball again after a fourth-quarter fumble in New York.

With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, this is a genuine three-way split: Chris Brooks leads the group in snap share as the blocking back, and Kaleb Johnson, acquired from Pittsburgh, logged eight carries in his first appearance. Atlanta is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the league at 63.0.

Best RB Touchdown Prop Today – MarShawn Lloyd

Thirty percent (30¢) is the price that looks rich. It asks a back with a 27% snap rate, two committee-mates and the NFL's stingiest run defense in front of him to finish a drive, and the 9% (9¢) opener is level with Kraft and Golden despite a far less certain role on the opening possession.

A $100 position at 30¢ buys about 333 shares for $233.33 in profit, and roughly 1,111 shares at 9¢ for $1,011.11. If you want Green Bay's run game at all, Kaleb Johnson at 8% on the opener is the version of this idea with a longer price.

• Anytime: If Lloyd finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $233.33 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Lloyd scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Lloyd scores later in the game.

The 3.3x anytime multiple is not enough compensation for that usage profile, making this the clearest pass on the board rather than a price to chase.

Kyle Pitts Touchdown Prediction

Pitts managed one catch for 15 yards in Week 2 in an offense with no functioning quarterback. The Penix reunion is not automatically a gift either: across the nine games Penix started for him last season, Pitts produced 38 catches for 375 yards and one touchdown, against four scores in 10 games with Kirk Cousins.

Green Bay is a poor matchup for the position, having allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season and held the Jets and Vikings TE1s under 40 yards apiece, though T.J. Hockenson did score in Week 1.

Best ATL Touchdown Prop Today – Kyle Pitts

Twenty percent (20¢) is close to fair, and arguably generous to a player who scored once in nine games with this quarterback. The 5% (5¢) opener is the more honest number, because Pitts has been a seam and intermediate target rather than the player Atlanta calls at the goal line.

A $100 buy at 20¢ returns 500 shares and $400.00 in profit, while the same stake at 5¢ picks up about 2,000 shares for $1,900.00.

• Anytime: If Pitts finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $400.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Pitts scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,900.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Pitts scores later in the game.

Five times your money anytime and 20x on the opener is the shape of a talent trade rather than a usage trade, and it should be sized as the lottery ticket it is.

Brian Robinson Jr. Touchdown Prediction

Robinson Jr. replaced Tyler Allgeier, who turned that complementary role into eight touchdowns last season, and reports out of Atlanta this summer had him inheriting the primary goal-line work. He carried an ankle issue into the week but was not given a game status and is expected to play.

The obvious problem is that a goal-line role is worth nothing if the offense never reaches the goal line, and Atlanta became just the fourth team since 1978 to play two full games without a red zone drive. Penix's return is precisely the variable that could change that tonight.

Best Dark Horse Touchdown Prop Today – Brian Robinson Jr.

Of every price on the two boards, this is the one I would call light. Nineteen percent (19¢) anytime and 4% (4¢) on the opener treat the designated short-yardage back as a bit player, and he is priced below Skyy Moore's anytime number while holding the role that historically converts Atlanta's only guaranteed scoring chances.

A $100 position at 19¢ buys roughly 526 shares for $426.32 in profit, and about 2,500 shares at 4¢ returns $2,400.00. Depth is thinner this far down the board, so the fill matters more here than at the top.

• Anytime: If Robinson Jr. finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $426.32 in profit on the $100 stake.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.
• First TD: If Robinson Jr. scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $2,400.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, even if Robinson Jr. scores later in the game.

Roughly 5.3x anytime and 25x on the opener is a real payout multiple attached to a real role, but the path still depends on an offense that has not sniffed the red zone, so treat it as a small-stake swing.

Novig has touchdown scorer contracts live on more than two dozen players in this game, well beyond the names covered above, plus anytime and first TD boards across the rest of the Week 3 slate.

Use Novig Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions Today

Ready to take a position on today's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Novig review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Novig to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get $25 in Trade Credits!

Disclaimer: Restrictions & requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions; void where prohibited. Must be 21+ to participate. Limit of one offer per user. Event contract trading involves risk & is not appropriate for all. Consider if it's appropriate for you in light of financial circumstances. See novig.com/terms for information.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme is scarcity. Novig has Green Bay around 70% to win a game with a total in the low 40s, and two offenses ranked 28th and 32nd in EPA per play are not projected to hand out many touchdowns, which is why only one player on either board clears 57% and the opener board tops out at 16%.

Tight end is where the prices look softest. Atlanta has allowed three touchdowns to the position in two games and yet Kraft is priced level with a receiver who has not scored, while Jonnu Smith at 14% offers a second bite at the same idea.

Where the board reflects real uncertainty rather than error is the Green Bay backfield. Lloyd at 30%, Kaleb Johnson at 31% and Chris Brooks at 23% is the market admitting it has no idea who finishes a drive without Josh Jacobs, and Atlanta's league-best run defense makes all three prices defensible.

Both boards will move on availability. Penix's first start in 10 months, the status of Green Bay's patched-together offensive line and any late change to the Falcons' backfield can reprice these contracts quickly, so check the live numbers on the prediction market apps before taking a position.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This is a board defined by one short price and a long tail. Bijan Robinson at 57% is the only anytime contract the market is confident about, the next seven names sit between 19% and 37%, and the first touchdown board runs from 16% all the way down to 1%.

Because of that shape, the first TD market here is small-stake territory rather than a slate to spread evenly at full size. Double-digit payout multiples exist because the paths are narrow, and a 25x return on Brian Robinson Jr. is a reflection of probability, not a discount.

Every contract on both boards settles all-or-nothing and should be treated as an independent position rather than a parlay leg. Size each one on its own merits, and remember the full stake is at risk on every trade.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Props: Novig Promo Code FAQs

What is the Novig promo code today and how do I claim the offer?

The current Novig promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with the code and deposit $10 receive $25 in Trade Credits, issued as five separate $5 credits. Registration takes a few minutes, and once your account is funded you can pull up the Falcons vs Packers game page and trade any of the touchdown contracts above.

What are the best touchdown props today for Falcons vs Packers?

Tucker Kraft at 33¢ anytime is the standout, with Atlanta having allowed three touchdowns to tight ends in two weeks. Brian Robinson Jr. at 19¢ anytime is the best value further down the board given his reported goal-line role, and Christian Watson at 37¢ is the strongest of the Green Bay receivers after scoring in both games.

What is the Editor's Pick for Falcons vs Packers touchdown scorers?

The Editor's Pick is Tucker Kraft Anytime TD Yes at 33¢, for a profit of $203.03 on a $100 position. He played 98.3% of snaps in Week 2, has 13 touchdowns in his last 26 games, and faces a defense that just allowed two scores to Darren Waller. The price is level with Drake London despite a far better matchup for the position.

Which player carries the highest implied probability to score?

Bijan Robinson, at 57% on the anytime board and 16% on the first touchdown board. He is the only player above 40% on anytime and the only one above 11% on the opener, which reflects his 48 touches through two games in an offense with no other reliable option.

How do Novig anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

Each contract is priced in cents from 1 to 99, and that price maps directly to implied probability. An anytime touchdown contract resolves Yes if the named player scores at least one touchdown at any point in the game, paying $1.00 per share, and resolves No if he does not, in which case the position is worth $0. You trade against other users on the exchange rather than against a house.

How does a Novig first touchdown contract resolve?

A first touchdown contract resolves Yes only if the named player scores the first touchdown of the game by either team. A player who scores three touchdowns but not the opening one still resolves No, which is the most common misunderstanding on this market and the reason the prices are so much lower.

Why are first touchdown prices so much lower than anytime prices?

An anytime contract has four quarters and every drive to hit, while a first touchdown contract has exactly one qualifying event in the entire game, shared across every player on both rosters. Kraft is 33¢ to score at any point but only 9¢ to score first, and that gap is the market pricing a single outcome rather than a whole game of chances.

When do these contracts settle?

Novig grades touchdown scorer markets on official league data and settles them shortly after the game concludes. Winning shares pay $1.00 each and losing positions go to zero.

Are more touchdown markets available beyond the players listed?

Yes. Novig lists anytime and first touchdown contracts on more than two dozen players in this game alone, including deep options such as Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Bo Melton, Austin Hooper and both starting quarterbacks, plus full boards on every other Week 3 matchup. Trading is not available in every state.