Dancing With the Stars Season 35 kicks off tonight with a twist the ballroom hasn't seen since 2018: a gender-split premiere that sends the eight men out first, with one of them eliminated before the women even take the floor on night two. Prediction markets like Kalshi have already staked out a clear favorite and a tight pack behind him, with the market shifting meaningfully in the hours before Tuesday's live show.
DWTS Season 35: The Premiere-Week Stakes
No one has been eliminated yet this season, but the format guarantees two exits before the men and women have even shared a stage. Night one, airing tonight, belongs entirely to the eight male couples, with the results decided by judges' scores and same-night fan voting. Night two hands the ballroom to the eight women, with the same rules applied separately to their field. It's the first time since the show's shortened all-athletes season that a premiere has produced a double elimination, and the men's contracts below reflect only tonight's group.
Read more about the Most Eliminated Dance Styles on Dancing with the Stars.
DWTS Episode 1 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's elimination market works like any event contract exchange: each contestant has a "Yes" and "No" contract priced between 1 cent and 99 cents, and that price doubles as the market's implied probability of them going home. A "Yes" contract on a given couple pays out $1 if that couple is eliminated when the results are announced, and settles at zero otherwise. Because only the men are competing and voting tonight, their eight contracts should roughly sum to 100%, one full slice of who's going home.
Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart
Hanson opens as the biggest favorite to go home, even after his number ticked down four points ahead of the show. He and Stewart are dancing a quickstep to Billy Joel's "Tell Her About It," a technical style that can expose less experienced movers in week one. As a musician rather than a trained performer, Hanson fits the profile voters have sent home early in past seasons, though the recent price dip suggests some traders see him drawing sympathy votes as a recognizable name.
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess
Cameron is the week's biggest mover, up eight points as traders reassess his chances. He and Burgess take on a tango to Lenny Kravitz's "Are You Gonna Go My Way," a demanding style for a debut night. His reality TV profile gives him a built-in fan base, but the sharp rise suggests the market is pricing in real doubt about whether that translates into first-week dance scores.
Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman
Leavitt sits in the middle of the pack, dancing a salsa to Tag Team's "Whoomp! (There It Is)" with rookie pro Zaikman, who just won DWTS: The Next Pro. As the husband of a recent finalist, Leavitt brings ballroom familiarity into the season, and his flat price this week suggests the market sees him as neither a runaway safe bet nor an early elimination risk.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson
Rodriguez has quietly become one of the more respected dancers in this cast before a single score has been posted. Fellow contestant Ezra Frech and his partner Daniella Karagach have publicly called Rodriguez the most daunting competitor in the field, and Carson has compared his potential run to Andy Richter's strong Season 34 showing. Dancing a cha-cha to "Mr. Big Stuff," his single-digit price reflects that buzz, and the slight downward move suggests traders see even less risk than they did a day ago.
Also in the Field
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold: Wood's cha-cha to Tim McGraw's "I Like It, I Love It" hasn't moved the needle either way, leaving him comfortably in the safe tier ahead of the show.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater: The Savannah Bananas player takes on a cha-cha to the Spice Girls' "Wannabe," and his steady price suggests traders expect his athleticism to translate reasonably well to the floor.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach: The two-time Paralympic gold medalist dances a tango to Kelly Clarkson's "Since U Been Gone," and his price ticked down slightly as pre-show buzz around his story and preparation builds.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson: Shum's prior dance training made him an early buzz name, and while his price nudged up marginally, he remains among the market's safest bets to survive night one.
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DWTS Episode 1 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Tyler Cameron's eight-point climb is the standout move on the board, a sign traders are actively rethinking a contestant many assumed would be safe on name recognition alone. Taylor Hanson's smaller four-point drop moves in the opposite direction, hinting at some last-minute confidence in his ability to connect with voters despite a technically tough dance assignment.
Beyond the top two, the board looks less like a genuine toss-up and more like a favorite-versus-the-field situation. Hanson and Cameron combine for roughly 70% of the implied probability, while the bottom four men are all priced at 4% or below, suggesting the market sees this largely as a two-man race for the exit with everyone else fighting over the scraps.
Because tonight's show airs live before judges' scores or vote totals exist, the board could move fast once dances actually happen. A rough tango from Cameron, a surprisingly composed quickstep from Hanson, or a standout moment from Rodriguez could all reprice the field before America's votes are tallied and the results are read at the end of the broadcast.
How to Trade DWTS Episode 1 on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Dancing With The Stars Cast FAQs
How do Kalshi's Dancing With The Stars winner contracts work?
Each celebrity has a "Yes" and "No" contract priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price reflects the market's implied probability that the celebrity wins, and a "Yes" contract pays out $1.00 if they do.
Has Dancing With The Stars season 35 started airing yet?
No. The two-night premiere is scheduled for September 15 and 16, 2026, so every price on this board is still based on pre-season factors rather than judged performances.
How can I start trading Dancing With The Stars odds on Kalshi?
Create a Kalshi account, complete verification, and fund it to begin buying "Yes" or "No" contracts on any celebrity in the field.
