Home run props are lit up across the board tonight, with sluggers ranging from bona fide MVP candidates to reclamation projects and rookies drawing real trading interest on Polymarket.
We pulled the best home run bets today from across the entire slate, and every single one of them is a live Polymarket contract with a real price attached, not a hypothetical line.
Here is a full breakdown of today's MLB home run predictions today, built around 15 Polymarket tickets worth trading tonight.
Tuesday's MLB schedule is stacked with games spanning the entire spectrum of where teams sit right now, from the Rays and Dodgers locking up top playoff seeds to the last-place Rockies and Athletics just playing out the string.
Let's get into it!
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction
Toronto (77-80) and Baltimore (76-81) are both playing spoiler at this point, but the Orioles' lineup still has real thump in the middle of it.
Max Scherzer takes the ball for the Blue Jays carrying a rough 6.07 ERA, while Baltimore counters with Chase Bassitt, who has been steadier at 4.64.
Tonight's slate also comes with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Alonso
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR vs BAL (6:35 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (20¢) | $473.65 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alonso signed with Baltimore as a free agent this past offseason after seven seasons anchoring the Mets' lineup, and he has remained one of the most reliable power threats in the sport in the process.
A 20¢ price against a struggling Scherzer, who is walking batters and getting hit hard all season at 6.07, is a fair number for a hitter with Alonso's track record of punishing shaky velocity.
A $100 order at this 20¢ average price buys roughly 500 shares, each worth $1 if Alonso goes deep.
- If Alonso hits a home run: profit of $473.65.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is nearly a 5-to-1 payout on a hitter who has real thump behind him, a solid risk/reward shape for a single-game home run swing.
Nationals vs Tigers Prediction
Washington (73-84) and Detroit (74-83) are both out of the race, but James Wood remains one of the most exciting power bats in the league regardless of the standings.
Jarlin Kent takes the mound for the Nationals at a rough 6.40 ERA, while Detroit hands the ball to Dietrich Anderson, who has been sharp at 3.62.
Best Home Run Bets Today – James Wood
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | James Wood | HR Yes (15.51¢) | $609.12 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Wood has grown into one of the most dangerous left-handed bats in the National League since his 2024 debut, and Anderson's tidy 3.62 ERA is the main reason this price sits closer to 15% instead of 20-plus.
A $100 stake at 15.51¢ buys roughly 645 shares, each worth $1 if Wood connects.
A hit would return a profit of $609.12, while a miss costs the full stake, and that near 6-to-1 multiple reflects a talented hitter facing a genuinely tough right-hander.
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction
St. Louis (76-80) and Pittsburgh (79-77) are jockeying for pride more than playoff position at this point in September.
Michael Pallante has quietly put together a strong season on the mound for St. Louis at 3.70, while Pittsburgh's Bailey Jones sits at a more middling 4.17.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Alec Burleson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL vs PIT (6:40 PM ET) | Alec Burleson | HR Yes (13.44¢) | $701.83 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Burleson is more of a line-drive doubles hitter than a true power bat, which explains why the board has him as the biggest longshot of the early games at 12% implied probability.
A $100 order at the 13.44¢ average price buys roughly 744 shares, worth $1 apiece on a home run.
That works out to a profit of $701.83 if he connects against Jones tonight, a big multiple for a hitter capable of the occasional long ball even without elite exit velocity.
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
Milwaukee (98-58) has already clinched the NL Central and one of the top seeds in the National League, while Philadelphia (86-70) is locked into the thick of the NL playoff picture.
Brewers right-hander Trevor May has scuffled to a 4.61 ERA, and that's the matchup Kyle Schwarber draws tonight in Philadelphia's lineup.
Zack Wheeler takes the ball for the Phillies at a sharp 2.99 ERA, working the other side of this one against Milwaukee's bats.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs PHI (6:40 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schwarber has been one of the most consistent 40-homer threats in baseball for years, and a shaky 4.61 ERA from May gives him a real look tonight.
A $100 stake at 22¢ buys roughly 455 shares, each worth $1 if he goes deep.
A home run pays out $431.18 in profit, while a miss costs the stake entirely, a reasonable multiple for one of the sport's premier sluggers in a favorable spot.
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction
Cleveland (81-75) picked up real thump at the trade deadline when it acquired Jo Adell from the Angels, and he has continued to hit for power since the move.
Boston (84-72) counters tonight with left-hander Connor Tolle, who has been sharp at 3.02, while Cleveland sends out fellow lefty Logan Messick at an even better 2.57.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE vs BOS (6:45 PM ET) | Jo Adell | HR Yes (13.57¢) | $695.28 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
The lefty-on-lefty matchup against Tolle is the main reason Adell's price sits under 14% here, even with the power he has shown since joining the Guardians.
A $100 order at 13.57¢ buys roughly 737 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
That's a profit of $695.28 if he connects, against a total loss of the stake if he doesn't, a big multiple for a hitter who has genuine raw power even in a tough platoon spot.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction
This is the nightcap of Tampa Bay's doubleheader with New York, and the Rays (95-60) have already locked up one of the American League's top playoff seeds.
Drew Rasmussen has quietly turned in a Cy Young-caliber season for Tampa Bay at 15-5 with a 2.72 ERA, a tough assignment for New York's lineup.
The Yankees counter with Max Fried, who is sharp in his own right at 2.63, giving Ben Rice a shot against Rasmussen's stuff tonight.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Ben Rice
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (7:05 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (22.67¢) | $418.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Rice has emerged as a real power threat in the Yankees' lineup this season, and a 22.67¢ price against a top-of-the-rotation arm like Rasmussen reflects genuine two-way risk here.
A $100 stake at that average price buys roughly 441 shares, each worth $1 if Rice connects.
A home run returns a profit of $418.69, while a miss costs the full stake, a reasonable multiple against one of the American League's toughest arms.
Reds vs Braves Prediction
Cincinnati (72-84) is playing out the string, but Elly De La Cruz remains one of the most electric talents in the sport regardless of the standings.
Atlanta (92-64) counters with JR Ritchie, who has struggled to a 5.03 ERA and has been hittable for the long ball, while Cincinnati's Brandon Williamson sits at 5.56.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Elly De La Cruz
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs ATL (7:15 PM ET) | Elly De La Cruz | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
De La Cruz combines elite exit velocity with rare speed, and an 18¢ price against a struggling Ritchie is a fair number given how hard he's hit the ball off shaky right-handers all season.
A $100 order at 18¢ buys roughly 556 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
A hit pays out $525.61 in profit, while a miss costs the full stake, a solid multiple for one of the game's most explosive bats in a favorable spot.
White Sox vs Royals Prediction
Kansas City (67-89) is well out of the race, but Jac Caglianone has been the one consistent bright spot in an otherwise rough season, and this is the trade we're making tonight.
Chicago sends left-hander Sean Kay to the mound carrying a 4.41 ERA, while Kansas City counters with Daniel Lynch IV at a sharper 3.29.
Caglianone entered his 2026 breakout as the sixth overall pick from 2024, and he backed it up with a huge August that included a 447-foot blast and a four-extra-base-hit game on August 8.
He has cooled off in September, going hitless in home runs across his last several games while managing a left flexor strain, and that recent cold stretch is almost certainly why the market has him as the longest shot on the entire slate at just 11%.
We like fading that recency bias against a lefty in Kay who has allowed his share of hard contact all season, especially given Caglianone's raw power ceiling, which includes exit velocities north of 110 mph and home runs traveling well over 440 feet.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Jac Caglianone
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS vs KC (7:40 PM ET) | Jac Caglianone | HR Yes (11¢) | $856.17 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
A $100 order at Polymarket's listed 11¢ average price buys roughly 909 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution.
- If Caglianone hits a home run: profit of $856.17.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's nearly an 8.5-to-1 payout multiple, a genuinely high-variance swing, but one that's priced for a cold streak rather than a lack of talent.
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Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
Chicago (87-69) is in the thick of the NL playoff race, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has developed into one of the game's best all-around center fielders in the process.
Miami's Janson Junk carries a below-average 4.50 ERA into this one, with the Cubs' starter still to be announced.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA vs CHC (7:40 PM ET) | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR Yes (15.96¢) | $592.09 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Crow-Armstrong's blend of plus power and plus speed has made him a breakout star in 2026, and Junk's 4.50 ERA gives him a real look tonight.
A $100 stake at 15.96¢ buys roughly 626 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
That works out to a profit of $592.09 if he connects, a strong multiple for a hitter trending in the right direction all season.
Mets vs Rangers Prediction
Texas (78-78) has hung around .500 most of the year, and Josh Jung's power bat in the middle of that lineup is a big reason why.
New York's Sean Manaea has been shaky at 4.74, while Texas counters with Mike Gore at an even rougher 4.67.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Josh Jung
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM vs TEX (8:05 PM ET) | Josh Jung | HR Yes (14.35¢) | $657.81 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Jung has plus raw power from the right side, and a struggling Manaea on the mound gives him a real look at extending Texas's lead in this one.
A $100 order at 14.35¢ buys roughly 697 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
A hit returns a profit of $657.81, while a miss costs the full stake, a strong multiple against a pitcher who has struggled with the long ball all season.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction
Colorado (57-99) has been one of the worst teams in modern MLB history, and that includes a pitching staff that gets hit hard at altitude.
Arizona's Michael Soroka has been steady at 3.45, while Colorado's Kyle Freeland has been torched to the tune of a 6.38 ERA at Coors Field.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Gabriel Moreno
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs COL (8:40 PM ET) | Gabriel Moreno | HR Yes (15.51¢) | $609.06 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Moreno isn't known as a big power hitter, but Coors Field's thin air inflates home run odds for every hitter in that lineup, and Freeland's 6.38 ERA there makes this a soft matchup.
A $100 stake at 15.51¢ buys roughly 645 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
That's a profit of $609.06 if he connects, a strong multiple for a hitter getting a real park-and-pitcher boost tonight.
Angels vs Athletics Prediction
Los Angeles (60-96) and Oakland's transplanted Athletics (61-95) are both well out of the race, but Shea Langeliers has quietly put together real power numbers behind the plate for a rebuilding club.
Yusei Kikuchi has been one of the league's most hittable lefties this year at 5.02, while Oakland's Joey Basso sits at a better 4.50.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Shea Langeliers
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAA vs ATH (9:40 PM ET) | Shea Langeliers | HR Yes (23¢) | $412.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Kikuchi's 5.02 ERA is one of the softer matchups on the board tonight, and it's a big reason Langeliers is priced as one of the two highest-probability home run bets in this entire roundup.
A $100 order at 23¢ buys roughly 435 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
A hit pays out a profit of $412.69, while a miss costs the full stake, a fair multiple for a hitter with legitimate pop against a struggling lefty.
Astros vs Mariners Prediction
Yordan Alvarez has been on an MVP-caliber tear since returning healthy in 2026, already setting a career high with over 40 home runs and pushing for the American League Triple Crown down the stretch.
Seattle's Logan Gilbert has been excellent all season at 3.69 with a 12-10 record, making this the toughest individual matchup on the entire slate.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs SEA (9:40 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (23¢) | $412.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alvarez has gone 6-for-19 with multiple home runs over his last six games entering tonight, and a 23¢ price against Gilbert reflects real respect for one of the game's toughest right-handers.
A $100 stake at that price buys roughly 435 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
A hit returns a profit of $412.69, while a miss costs the full stake, a fair multiple given how good Gilbert has been all season.
Twins vs Giants Prediction
San Francisco (65-92) is well out of the race, and Minnesota's Royce Lewis, when healthy, remains one of the more talented raw power bats in that lineup.
Minnesota's Taj Bradley has been solid at 3.81, while San Francisco's Ryan Molina sits at a shakier 4.18.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Royce Lewis
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN vs SF (9:45 PM ET) | Royce Lewis | HR Yes (15.18¢) | $622.06 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Lewis has flashed plus raw power whenever he's stayed on the field, and Molina's 4.18 ERA is a soft enough matchup to make this a live longshot.
A $100 order at 15.18¢ buys roughly 659 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
That's a profit of $622.06 if he connects, a strong multiple for a talented hitter in a favorable spot.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
Los Angeles (96-60) has one of the National League's top playoff seeds locked up, and San Diego (87-69) is still fighting to nail down its own postseason spot behind Fernando Tatis Jr.
San Diego's Michael King has been excellent at 3.03, while the Dodgers' starter was still to be announced as of these screenshots.
Tatis has been the story of the second half of the Padres' season, homering off the Marlins just three days ago and sitting on five home runs of 450-plus feet this year, the most in baseball.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Fernando Tatis Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD vs LAD (10:10 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (19.38¢) | $488.54 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Tatis took months to hit his first home run of the season but has been one of the hottest power bats in baseball ever since, and a 19.38¢ price closes out this slate with one of its more compelling stories.
A $100 stake at that average price buys roughly 516 shares, each worth $1 on a home run.
A hit returns a profit of $488.54, while a miss costs the full stake, a solid multiple to close out the night against a Dodgers staff still finalizing its starter.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market
The two highest-priced home run bets today both sit at 23¢: Shea Langeliers against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi, and Yordan Alvarez, who is chasing a career year against one of the American League's best arms in Logan Gilbert.
On the other end, Jac Caglianone's recent cold stretch has pushed him all the way down to 11¢, the longest shot and biggest potential payout of the entire slate.
Coors Field continues to do what Coors Field does, with Gabriel Moreno getting a real price boost purely from ballpark factors against a home run-prone Kyle Freeland.
Across the board, these are some of the best home run bets today precisely because the pitching matchups are so lopsided, from Scherzer's 6.07 ERA to Freeland's 6.38.
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
This slate is about as wide as it gets, from Jac Caglianone's 11¢ longshot price to Yordan Alvarez and Shea Langeliers sitting at 23¢ on the other end.
Whether you're chasing a big multiple or leaning on a favorite, there are real Polymarket prediction market apps making these best home run bets today easy to track and trade from a phone.
For a broader look at how these contracts stack up against traditional sportsbooks, the prediction markets hub is a good starting point before tonight's first pitch.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.
What is the best home run bet today on Polymarket?
Jac Caglianone's home run prop against the White Sox stands out as the biggest value play tonight at 11¢, offering an $856.17 profit on a $100 stake despite his recent cold stretch.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Shea Langeliers and Yordan Alvarez carry the highest implied probability on tonight's board, each priced at 23¢.
What is the biggest potential payout on tonight's home run props?
Jac Caglianone's 11¢ contract carries the biggest potential payout on the slate at $856.17 in profit on a $100 stake.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a specific player will hit at least one home run in that game. A winning share resolves to $1, while a losing share resolves to $0.
When do these Polymarket home run markets resolve?
Each market resolves once the official box score for that specific game is finalized, typically within a few hours of the final out.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code ACTION?
Sign up for a Polymarket account, enter promo code ACTION during registration, and deposit at least $10 to unlock the $50 trading bonus.
Why is Jac Caglianone the featured pick despite his recent cold streak?
His September slump has pushed the market price down to 11%, but his underlying power, exit velocity, and matchup against a hittable lefty in Sean Kay make this a buy-low spot rather than a sign his talent has faded.
