Yankees vs Rays Prediction | Best MLB Player Props Today for NYY vs TB Double Header Game 1

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are set for the opener of Tuesday's day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, a makeup of their rained-out May 23 meeting.

• Tampa Bay was the first team in baseball to punch its playoff ticket, clinching a berth on September 11, and the Rays enter this twin bill leading the season series over New York, 6-3.
• The Yankees clinched their own playoff spot a few days later but will be without Aaron Judge, who landed on the injured list with a right calf strain.

Here is a full breakdown of the best MLB player props today, built around five Polymarket tickets worth trading tonight.

Best MLB Player Props for Rays vs Yankees

Nick Martinez takes the ball for Tampa Bay against Carlos Rodón, and Polymarket has a full board of moneyline, spread, total, and player prop contracts open for Game 1.

Each of these five tickets comes straight off a live Polymarket board, not a hypothetical line.

Below is the full rundown of the best MLB player props for today's doubleheader opener, ranked from most to least likely.

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Best Strikeouts Pick Today – Nick Martinez

Martinez has been one of the American League's steadiest arms all year, carrying a 15-4 record and a 2.94 ERA into this start.

The Yankees have already lost their most dangerous bat for this series with Judge sidelined, and a lineup missing that kind of thump tends to chase and expand the zone more against a pitcher who commands the strike zone as well as Martinez does.

A $100 buy at an average price of 56.8¢ works out to roughly 176 shares (100 ÷ 0.568 ≈ 176 shares).

The gap between that raw share value and the $170.93 payout reflects order book depth and fees, not an error.

• Yes outcome (Martinez clears 4+ strikeouts): profit of $170.93.
• No outcome (Martinez falls short of four strikeouts): full loss of the $100 stake.

It is a modest payout multiple for a near coin-flip-plus proposition, the kind of trade built more on a real edge than on chasing a long shot.

Best Moneyline Pick Today – Rays

Tampa Bay has already clinched a playoff spot and is playing with house money, while New York is trying to hold a getaway-day matinee together before the second game of the twin bill.

The Rays have controlled this season series 6-3, and Martinez gives them a legitimate front-line arm to lean on in a getaway-day spot like this one.

A $100 buy at an average price of 47.5¢ gets us roughly 211 shares (100 ÷ 0.475 ≈ 211 shares).

• Yes outcome (Rays win Game 1): profit of $203.11.
• No outcome (Yankees win instead): full loss of the $100 stake.

Just over 2x on essentially a coin-flip moneyline is a fair price for backing the better-rested, hotter club on paper.

Best Total Bases Prop Today – Yandy Diaz

Diaz sits in the middle of a Rays lineup that ranks near the top of the league in batting average, and Rodón, while excellent overall, is a fly-ball-prone lefty who has had his rougher outings against contact-first right-handed hitters.

Two total bases only needs a double, a home run, or a pair of singles, a low bar for a hitter of Diaz's caliber in a get-away day lineup spot near the top of the order.

A $100 buy at an average price of 45.49¢ works out to roughly 220 shares (100 ÷ 0.4549 ≈ 220 shares).

• Yes outcome (Diaz reaches two or more total bases): profit of $211.81.
• No outcome (Diaz falls short): full loss of the $100 stake.

Just over 2x on a contact hitter clearing a modest bar is a reasonable risk-reward shape for a middle-of-the-lineup prop like this one.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice

Rice has settled into a middle-of-the-order role for New York with Judge out, and he's shown real power all season against right-handed pitching.

Martinez isn't a hard thrower, and hitters who can turn on velocity in the 90-92 mph range have had success finding the short porch in right field against pitchers of that profile at Yankee Stadium.

A $100 buy at an average price of 21¢ gets us roughly 476 shares (100 ÷ 0.21 ≈ 476 shares).

• Yes outcome (Rice homers): profit of $451.42.
• No outcome (Rice does not homer): full loss of the $100 stake.

This one's a true longshot play, more than 4.5x the stake back, and it should be sized accordingly rather than treated like the safer plays above it.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero

Caminero has been the engine of Tampa Bay's playoff push all year, and his walk-off home run against Houston is what actually clinched the Rays' postseason berth earlier this month.

Rodón is a swing-and-miss lefty, but he can leave pitches up in the zone, and Caminero has done real damage on mistakes left over the plate.

A $100 buy at an average price of 20.5¢ gets us roughly 488 shares (100 ÷ 0.205 ≈ 488 shares).

• Yes outcome (Caminero homers): profit of $462.18.
• No outcome (Caminero does not homer): full loss of the $100 stake.

Like the Rice play above it, this is a longshot trade near 4.6x the stake, best treated as a smaller, speculative position rather than a core play.

Rays vs Yankees Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts

Moneyline contracts on Polymarket resolve based simply on which team wins Game 1 outright, with no run line attached.

Each contract settles at $1 per share if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so the price you pay is effectively the market's implied win probability.

Rays (47%, Yes 47¢)

Tampa Bay is priced as a slight moneyline underdog on the road, even while holding a 6-3 edge in the season series and a playoff spot already locked up. The Yes 47% price ticked up 4 points as the board moved toward Game 1.

Yankees (54%, Yes 54¢)

New York is favored at home behind Rodón, but the price has slipped 4 points recently, likely tied to the lineup's depth concerns with Judge sidelined. The Yes 54% side still makes the Yankees the favorite, with No 46% on the Rays side of that same contract.

Rays vs Yankees Spread and Total Predictions

The spread contract asks whether the Yankees win by more than 1.5 runs, while the total asks whether combined scoring clears 7.5 runs.

Yankees -1.5 Spread

The board has the Yankees covering a 1.5-run win margin at just 34%, down a sharp 12 points, which suggests the market expects this one to stay close either way. That leaves No 66% as the market's preferred side on the spread, against Yes 34% for a multi-run Yankees win.

Over 7.5 Runs

The total has fallen hard, with the Over now priced at just 46% after a steep drop, pointing toward two sharp, well-rested starters keeping this one under control. The No 55% Under side is now the market's lean, with Yes 46% still very much live given how quickly a doubleheader opener can turn into a track meet.

Rays vs Yankees Home Run Props

Every home run prop below is a 1+ home run contract, priced on whether that player goes deep at least once in Game 1.

• Junior Caminero (1+ Home Runs):Yes 20% (No 81%). The Rays' breakout slugger and the man whose walk-off shot clinched Tampa Bay's playoff spot, he's the highest-priced Ray on this board.
• Cody Bellinger (1+ Home Runs):Yes 16% (No 85%). Bellinger has been a steady middle-of-the-order presence for New York, though he sits behind several Yankees teammates on this particular board.
• Ben Rice (1+ Home Runs):Yes 21% (No 80%). Rice carries the highest price of any hitter here, and it's the play we broke down above in the Editor's Pick section.
• Chandler Simpson (1+ Home Runs):Yes 3% (No 99%). Simpson's game is built around speed and contact rather than power, and the board reflects that with the lowest home run price on either roster.
• Yandy Diaz (1+ Home Runs):Yes 12% (No 89%). Diaz is more of a doubles-and-average hitter, which is why we leaned toward his total bases prop instead of the long ball here.
• Jonny DeLuca (1+ Home Runs):Yes 8% (No 93%). DeLuca's price sits toward the bottom of the Rays' side of the board, consistent with a lighter-power role in the lineup.
• Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ Home Runs):Yes 19% (No 82%). Garcia's price is close behind Caminero's, making him one of the more live longshot pieces on the Yankees' side of the board.
• Spencer Jones (1+ Home Runs):Yes 17% (No 84%). Jones has real raw power, and the board's mid-teens price reflects a hitter capable of a big swing on any given at-bat.
• Heliot Ramos (1+ Home Runs):Yes 14% (No 87%). Ramos slots into the lower-middle of this board, a reasonable price for a hitter without elite home run pop.
• Ryan Vilade (1+ Home Runs):Yes 9% (No 92%). Vilade rounds out the board near the bottom, in line with a more contact-oriented p

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Rays vs Yankees Hit Props

Most of these contracts are priced on 1+ hits, with Yandy Diaz's listed at the tougher 2+ hits threshold; both are noted below.

• Ben Rice (1+ Hits):Yes 69% (No 36%). Rice's 69% price is the highest hit probability on the board, backing a hitter in the middle of an active Yankees lineup slot.
• Cody Bellinger (1+ Hits):Yes 63% (No 38%). Bellinger's price dropped 6 points recently, still comfortably favored to reach base with a hit against Martinez.
• Chandler Simpson (1+ Hits):Yes 63% (No 38%). Simpson's contact-first game keeps his hit probability well ahead of his home run number from the section above.
• Junior Caminero (1+ Hits):Yes 65% (No 36%). Caminero's all-around production shows up here too, with a solid two-in-three shot at a hit.
• Yandy Diaz (2+ Hits):Yes 33% (No 68%). This is the tougher 2+ hits threshold rather than the standard 1+ line, which explains why Diaz's number here reads lower than the rest of this section.
• Spencer Jones (1+ Hits):Yes 60% (No 41%). Jones sits in the middle of this board, a fair price for a power-first hitter who won't always find soft contact.
• Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ Hits):Yes 68% (No 34%). Garcia's price is right there with the board's top names on the hit prop.
• Ryan Vilade (1+ Hits):Yes 57% (No 47%). Vilade's number sits closer to a coin flip than most of the names above him.
• Heliot Ramos (1+ Hits):Yes 65% (No 38%). Ramos matches Caminero's price here, a solid two-in-three read on reaching base with a hit.
• Jonny DeLuca (1+ Hits):Yes 50% (No 51%). DeLuca's price fell 12 points and now sits at a true coin flip, the largest swing anywhere in this section.

Rays vs Yankees Total Bases Props

Every contract in this section is priced on 2+ total bases, meaning a double, a home run, or a pair of singles all clear the bar.

• Ben Rice (2+ Total Bases):Yes 46% (No 62%). Rice tops this board, consistent with his strong hit and home run numbers elsewhere on the page.
• Junior Caminero (2+ Total Bases):Yes 44% (No 57%). Caminero's price actually ticked up 2 points, one of the few risers on this board.
• Cody Bellinger (2+ Total Bases):Yes 40% (No 63%). Bellinger's number sits just under the 44-46% range at the top of this section.
• Heliot Ramos (2+ Total Bases):Yes 34% (No 73%). Ramos's price dropped 5 points, matching the broader softening across most of this board.
• Yandy Diaz (2+ Total Bases):Yes 42% (No 62%). Diaz's contact-heavy profile is exactly why we singled this one out above as our Editor's Pick.
• Spencer Jones (2+ Total Bases):Yes 37% (No 73%). Jones's power gives him a real path to a double or homer, even if his overall hit rate is more middling.
• Luis Garcia Jr. (2+ Total Bases):Yes 41% (No 60%). Garcia's number here tracks closely with his strong hit prop price from the section above.
• Ryan Vilade (2+ Total Bases):Yes 28% (No 80%). Vilade's price dropped 5 points, sitting toward the lower half of this section.
• Jonny DeLuca (2+ Total Bases):Yes 28% (No 79%). DeLuca's total bases price fell 7 points, echoing the coin-flip drop on his hit prop above.
• Chandler Simpson (2+ Total Bases):Yes 36% (No 68%). Simpson's price swung the hardest of anyone on this board, dropping 25 points as the market recalibrated his extra-base upside.

Starting Pitcher Strikeout Props

• Nick Martinez (4+ Strikeouts):Yes 56% (No 45%). Martinez's 15-4 record and 2.94 ERA back up the board's lean toward him clearing this number, and it's the pick we detailed above.
• Carlos Rodón (4+ Strikeouts):Yes 56% (No 45%). Rodón carries a near-identical 2.95 ERA into this one, and the board prices both starters at exactly the same 56% to reach four strikeouts.

Starting Pitcher Outs Recorded Props

• Carlos Rodón (16+ Outs):Yes 71% (No 30%). At 16 outs, or a little short of six full innings, the board is confident Rodón works deep into this one for New York.
• Nick Martinez (15+ Outs):Yes 61% (No 55%). Martinez's line dropped a steep 29 points recently, though the board still leans toward him reaching five innings of work.

Starting Pitcher Earned Runs Allowed Props

• Carlos Rodón (2+ Earned Runs Allowed):Yes 56% (No 48%). Rodón's price fell 34 points, a notable shift on whether he gives up multiple earned runs against a Rays lineup that's hitting well as a group.
• Nick Martinez (2+ Earned Runs Allowed):Yes 57% (No 44%). Martinez saw the same 34-point drop, and the board now leans slightly toward him allowing multiple earned runs to a Yankees lineup still dangerous even without Judge.

Rays vs Yankees Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market

The biggest swing on the whole board belongs to Chandler Simpson's total bases number, which dropped 25 points as the market reassessed his extra-base upside against a lefty.

Both starting pitchers' earned-runs-allowed contracts moved a full 34 points, a sign the market is still working out exactly how deep each arm can go on a getaway-day doubleheader.

The moneyline and total have both drifted toward New York and the Under, respectively, but Tampa Bay's 6-3 edge in the season series and a full head of steam into October keep the Rays squarely live on this board.

For readers newer to this format, this prediction market app breakdown is a useful primer on how Polymarket compares to a traditional sportsbook.

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Rays vs Yankees: Final Thoughts

Game 1 of this doubleheader pits two clubs with nothing left to prove in the standings but plenty on the line for playoff seeding.

Martinez and Rodón give this board two of the sharper strikeout and innings props of the week, while the lineup props spread real value across both rosters.

Anyone still exploring how these markets compare to a traditional book should check out this prediction markets hub for more coverage like this.

Rays vs Yankees FAQs

What is the Polymarket promo code for the Rays vs Yankees doubleheader?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.

Who is favored in the Rays vs Yankees Game 1 moneyline market?

The Yankees are the moneyline favorite at 54%, with the Rays priced as a 47% underdog on the road.

What is the Polymarket price on the Rays vs Yankees run total?

The Over 7.5 runs contract is priced at 46%, with the Under priced at 55% after a recent drop in the Over's number.

What is the best home run prop for Game 1 of the Rays-Yankees doubleheader?

Ben Rice carries the highest home run price on the board at 21%, followed closely by Junior Caminero at 20%.

What is Action Network's Editor's Pick for this game?

Our top play is Nick Martinez clearing 4+ strikeouts at 56%, with Yandy Diaz's 2+ total bases prop at 42% as our next-favorite trade.

How do Polymarket contracts work?

Each contract resolves at $1 per share if the outcome hits and $0 if it doesn't, so the price paid reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code ACTION?

Sign up through the link on this page, enter ACTION during registration, and deposit at least $10 to unlock the $50 trading bonus.

When does this Polymarket market resolve?

All Game 1 contracts resolve based on the final result of that individual game once it's official, independent of what happens in the nightcap.