Dancing with the Stars returns Tuesday, September 22 for Viral Hits Night, the first normal episode of Season 35 after a two-night premiere that sent two couples home before the season was 48 hours old. Fourteen couples are left, and both major prediction markets have already converged on the same name at the top of the elimination board.
Kalshi lists the market as Episode 3 Elimination and Polymarket calls it Week 2, but the field and the resolution are identical: the contract pays out on whichever couple the live results show sends home.
Here is the Kalshi board, ranked by elimination probability, with the point move since the market opened and each couple's premiere score for context.
| 💃 Couple | 🏷️ Kalshi Yes | Price | 📉 Move | 📊 Week 1 Score | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Yes 51¢ (51%) | +4 | 12/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten | Yes 34¢ (34%) | +1 | 16/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Yes 18¢ (17%) | +1 | 10/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | Yes 13¢ (13%) | +1 | 15/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | Yes 8¢ (7%) | -2 | 16/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Yes 6¢ (6%) | No change | 17/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Yes 5¢ (4%) | No change | 15/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Yes 3¢ (3%) | +1 | 18/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Yes 4¢ (3%) | No change | 16/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Yes 3¢ (3%) | No change | 19/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Yes 3¢ (3%) | No change | 18/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Yes 2¢ (2%) | No change | 20/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Yes 2¢ (2%) | No change | 21/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Yes 2¢ (2%) | No change | 21/30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
Season 35 opened with 16 couples, the largest cast in show history, and ABC cut one on each night of the premiere.
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman: eliminated first on September 15 after a 12/30 salsa on the men's night.
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills: eliminated second on September 16, despite a 14/30 jive that was not the lowest score of the evening.
Nader's exit is the most important data point on this board. She outscored Tatyana Ali by two points and still went home, which told traders that the judges' leaderboard is a soft signal this season and the fan vote is carrying the result.
DWTS Episode 3 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi runs this as an event contract market. Every couple gets a "Yes" and a "No" side priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the market's implied probability of that couple being eliminated on Tuesday night.
Buy "Yes" at 51¢ and you collect $1 if that couple goes home, nothing if they survive. The market resolves to the live results announced during the episode. Week 2 judges' scores do not exist yet, so every price below is built on premiere-week scores, the assigned styles and songs for Viral Hits Night, and fan-base math.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik
Ali is the only couple on the board priced as a coin flip, and she got there by scoring 12/30 for her premiere jive to "Knock on Wood," the lowest mark of the women's night. Carrie Ann Inaba called it a rough start, and Derek Hough openly framed his comments as wanting to see her again in Week 2.
She draws a foxtrot to Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" on Tuesday, which is the ballroom style Hough asked for and her clearest path to a score jump. The market is not waiting for it: that +4 move is the largest on the board.
Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten
A 16/30 tango does not look like elimination territory, which makes 34¢ the most interesting number here. The reason is the premiere results show, where De Laurentiis landed in the bottom three alongside Ali and Nader.
That is the tell traders are pricing. Her Week 2 assignment is a salsa to Becky G's "Bella Ciao," a high-energy Latin number that rewards hip action and punishes hesitation.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson
Rodriguez posted a 10/30 cha-cha, the worst score in the entire cast, and the market still has him at barely a sixth of Ali's price. That gap is the Jimmy Kimmel Live! audience being priced in as a vote floor.
He has a paso doble to Rihanna's "Where Have You Been" this week, a brutally technical style for a first-time dancer. If the judges' scores matter at all on Tuesday, this is the contract that reprices fastest.
Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong
Miller scored 15/30 for her foxtrot and sits in the lower third of the leaderboard without the broadcast platform that protects Rodriguez. Summer House delivers a real audience, just a smaller one than late-night television.
She dances a tango to "No Broke Boys" by Disco Lines and Tinashe, one of the most recognizable songs on a Viral Hits Night card, which should help her on the vote side.
Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart
Hanson is the only couple on the Kalshi board moving the right direction, down two points since the market opened. A 16/30 quickstep was solid rather than special, but three decades of Hanson fandom is exactly the kind of built-in voting bloc that keeps a mid-table score safe.
His cha-cha to DNCE's "Cake by the Ocean" is a crowd-pleaser assignment.
The rest of the Kalshi board
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess: a 17/30 tango plus a Bachelor Nation voting base makes his salsa to "Girls" low risk.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater: tied at 15/30 with Miller, but the Savannah Bananas fan network is a genuine asset in a vote-driven week.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov: 18/30 in the premiere, and an Olympic skater's body awareness travels well to a tango.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold: 16/30 and 1.3 million followers who will vote, dancing a tango to Sombr's "12 to 12."
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy: 19/30 and a dance background, with a jive to Katseye's "Animal" up next.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa: 18/30 for her quickstep and a Save the Last Dance narrative the show will keep leaning on.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach: 20/30 was the best score of the men's night outside Shum.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson: co-leader at 21/30 and the season's early frontrunner.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas: the other 21/30, dancing a cha-cha to "September."
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DWTS Week 2 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices the same event in percentage terms, where a 49% "Yes" share costs about 49 cents and settles at $1 if that couple is eliminated. The board is listed under Dancing with the Stars S35: Week 2 Elimination.
Note the ordering difference: Polymarket has Connor Wood ahead of Harry Shum Jr. and pins five couples at a 2% floor.
| 💃 Couple | 🏷️ Polymarket Yes | 🛡️ Polymarket No | 📊 Week 1 Score | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Yes 49% | No 52% | 12/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten | Yes 37% | No 64% | 16/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Yes 20% | No 81% | 10/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | Yes 15% | No 86% | 15/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | Yes 9% | No 92% | 16/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Yes 7% | No 94% | 17/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Yes 6% | No 95% | 15/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Yes 5% | No 96% | 16/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Yes 3% | No 98% | 21/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Yes 2% | No 99% | 18/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Yes 2% | No 99% | 20/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Yes 2% | No 99% | 19/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Yes 2% | No 99% | 18/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Yes 2% | No 99% | 21/30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Tatyana Ali
Polymarket has Ali just short of a true coin flip, two points cheaper than Kalshi's 51¢. Same reasoning, slightly more doubt: the crowd here is giving marginally more weight to the possibility that a Week 2 foxtrot rescues her.
Giada De Laurentiis
This is Polymarket's most aggressive number relative to Kalshi, three points higher on the same contract. Traders here are treating the premiere bottom-three appearance as a stickier signal than her 16/30 score suggests.
Guillermo Rodriguez
Rodriguez is also priced higher on Polymarket, up at one in five. That is a small but consistent pattern: this board discounts the late-night vote shield a little less than Kalshi does.
Ciara Miller
Miller rounds out the top four at 15%, two points above her Kalshi price. Below her, Taylor Hanson sits at 9% and Tyler Cameron at 7%.
The rest of the Polymarket board
- Jackson Olson and Connor Wood are both a point or two above their Kalshi equivalents.
- Harry Shum Jr. is the oddity here, priced above four couples who outscored nobody on the leaderboard but him.
- Amber Glenn, Ezra Frech, Jenna Dewan, Julia Stiles and Maura Higgins all sit at the 2% floor.
How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Episode 3
The two exchanges agree on the shape of this market completely. Same favorite, same top four, same order, and both have the field split into one near-even contract, one live longshot in the 30s, and a long tail of couples priced as unelectable.
The divergence is in the middle. Polymarket is fatter across the board, with De Laurentiis, Rodriguez, Miller and Hanson each priced a few points higher than on Kalshi, while Ali herself is two points cheaper.
Read together, Kalshi's crowd is more consolidated behind a single outcome and Polymarket's is spreading risk across the bottom of the leaderboard. If you think Tuesday produces another Sarah Jane Nader style surprise, Polymarket's mid-board is where that view gets paid.
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DWTS Episode 3 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Ali's +4 point move on Kalshi is the only meaningful swing on either board, and it is a pure leaderboard trade. She is the lowest-scoring woman left, she was in the premiere bottom three, and she has no reality-TV or late-night constituency to backstop her.
The counterweight is Guillermo Rodriguez, whose 10/30 is the worst score of the season and who is still priced under 20% on both exchanges. Traders have decided the Kimmel audience is worth roughly 30 points of implied probability, which is a real bet on votes over technique.
The premiere also handed the market a warning. Nader went home with the eighth-best score of her night, and a voting glitch on Night 1 forced the show to throw out online ballots and count text votes only. Neither of those events fits a clean leaderboard model, which is exactly why the tail of this board is priced at 2% and 3% rather than 1%.
What reprices it before Tuesday's results: the Viral Hits Night scores themselves, particularly whether De Laurentiis takes a step forward on her salsa and whether Rodriguez survives a paso doble. A strong foxtrot from Ali would collapse a 51¢ contract in a hurry, and a bottom-two reveal that does not include her would end the market entirely.
How to Trade DWTS Episode 3 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code when signing up to
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
