All four Division Series Game 1s are on the board today, and the home run props across the slate are some of the most interesting tickets in the sport right now.
From Munetaka Murakami's rookie power binge in Chicago to Shohei Ohtani hunting home runs behind a freshly reloaded Dodgers rotation, there's no shortage of thunder in the box score tonight.
Here is a full breakdown of the best home run bets today, built around seven Polymarket tickets worth trading across the Division Series slate.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHW vs CLE (1:00 PM ET) | Munetaka Murakami | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CHW vs CLE (1:00 PM ET) | Jo Adell | HR Yes (14¢) | $674.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATL vs LAD (4:00 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATL vs LAD (4:00 PM ET) | Ozzie Albies | HR Yes (11.27¢) | $835.76 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NYY vs TB (6:30 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NYY vs TB (6:30 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (19.39¢) | $488.45 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SD vs MIL (8:30 PM ET) | Jackson Chourio | HR Yes (16.01¢) | $590.08 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the Division Series
Each of these seven tickets comes straight off a live Polymarket board, not a hypothetical line, and every one of them is tied to a real storyline from today's Division Series openers.
These MLB odds move fast once lineups are official, so we're building this around the numbers as they stand right now.
Each of these tickets comes straight off a live Polymarket board, built around the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
The White Sox are the feel-good story of this postseason, punching their ticket with a stunning run that most projection systems never saw coming, and they advanced out of the Wild Card Series to get here.
The Guardians banked a week of rest with a first-round bye, and now get the White Sox at full strength in Game 1 of this AL Central rematch.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Munetaka Murakami
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHW vs CLE (1:00 PM ET) | Munetaka Murakami | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Murakami's rookie season has been one of the stories of the year in the American League, and the market is giving the Japanese slugger an 18% chance to leave the yard in Game 1.
He's been a middle-of-the-order fixture for a White Sox lineup that scored 54 runs over its last eight games of the regular season, and his raw power translates against any arm Cleveland rolls out.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at an 18¢ average price works out to roughly 555 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Murakami goes deep: this ticket nets a profit of $525.61.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longer-shot swing, but the payout multiple on this one is more than 5-to-1, which is the kind of risk/reward that makes a single-game prop worth a look.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHW vs CLE (1:00 PM ET) | Jo Adell | HR Yes (14¢) | $674.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell arrived in Cleveland at the trade deadline after spending his entire career with the Angels, and he's slotted right into the middle of a Guardians lineup pushing for its first real October run in years.
He's shown plus raw power dating back to a career-high home run season before the trade, and the 14% price here reflects a true power threat even in a tougher pitching environment.
A $100 buy at a 14¢ average price is good for roughly 714 shares on this ticket.
- If Adell connects: this ticket nets a profit of $674.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Nearly 7-to-1 on the payout multiple, this is the deepest longshot of the slate, priced accordingly for a true power bat who doesn't homer every night.
Braves vs Dodgers Prediction
Atlanta grinded through the Wild Card Series to get here, and the Braves still hadn't named a Game 1 starter as of this market's posting, a real sign of how much their rotation got taxed just to reach the Division Series.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, enter fully rested off a first-round bye and now have the single best starting staff in the sport after the blockbuster trade-deadline addition of two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who joins Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in a loaded rotation chasing a third straight World Series.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs LAD (4:00 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the trade we're making for Game 1 of this series.
Ohtani sits at the top of this whole slate's implied probability alongside Ben Rice, and the Dodgers now have the deepest roster in baseball around him after adding Skubal at the deadline.
He's as complete a power threat as exists in the sport, and an Atlanta pitching staff that just burned extra arms in the Wild Card round is not an ideal matchup for a club trying to protect its best bullpen pieces for length.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at a 22¢ average price is roughly 455 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Ohtani homers: this ticket nets a profit of $431.18.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Just under a 4.3-to-1 payout multiple here, and it's the highest-probability trade on the board tonight without overstating how unpredictable a single home run swing can be.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ozzie Albies
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs LAD (4:00 PM ET) | Ozzie Albies | HR Yes (11.27¢) | $835.76 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Albies is the long-shot flip side of this same lineup, priced at just an 11% implied chance after a Braves offense that had to scratch and claw its way through the Wild Card round.
He's never been the same raw-power bat as some of his teammates, which is exactly why this ticket pays out at nearly 8-to-1.
A $100 buy at an 11.27¢ average price comes out to roughly 887 shares on this one.
- If Albies goes deep: this ticket nets a profit of $835.76.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
This is the longest shot in the Braves-Dodgers game, built for a trader who wants max leverage on a single swing rather than the safer, shorter-priced side.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
The Yankees needed to get through Boston in the Wild Card Series first, and they did it with Aaron Judge unavailable, which has pushed the rest of this lineup to carry more of the power-hitting load than usual.
The Rays banked the American League's top overall seed and a full week off, and now get a Yankees club that's still finding its October rhythm without its best hitter.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY vs TB (6:30 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the other trade we like most on today's board.
With Judge sidelined, Rice has taken on a bigger share of the Yankees' middle-of-the-order power, and the market has him priced identically to Ohtani at 22%, the shortest price anywhere on this slate.
He's a left-handed bat who's shown he can punish mistakes against a Rays staff that, like every other team today, is working with a short week of true preparation time.
A $100 buy at a 22¢ average price is roughly 455 shares here too, each worth $1 if the contract hits.
- If Rice homers: this ticket nets a profit of $431.18.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Same risk/reward shape as the Ohtani ticket, just under 4.3-to-1, and it's the pick we'd point to first in the Yankees-Rays opener.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY vs TB (6:30 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (19.39¢) | $488.45 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero is the Rays' answer on the other side of this same game, and at just 24 years old he's already established himself as one of the better young power bats in the American League.
The 19.39¢ average price puts him just behind Rice on this board, a fair gap given the Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole on the mound.
A $100 buy at a 19.39¢ average price works out to roughly 516 shares on this ticket.
- If Caminero connects: this ticket nets a profit of $488.45.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Right around 4.9-to-1 on the payout, this one splits the difference between the slate's safest and longest-shot tickets.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
The Padres beat their way through the Wild Card round to get here and now hand the ball to deadline addition Robbie Ray, who came over from the Giants to shore up a rotation that had been one of the shakiest among contenders all year.
The Brewers earned the top overall seed in the National League, and Game 1 belongs to Jacob Misiorowski, who has been as close to unhittable at home as any starter in baseball this season.
That's exactly why there's no San Diego hitter on this board: Misiorowski has posted a 1.62 ERA at home in 2026 and held opponents to a .158 average in front of his own fans, and we're not backing a Padres bat against that kind of home-field dominance tonight.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jackson Chourio
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD vs MIL (8:30 PM ET) | Jackson Chourio | HR Yes (16.01¢) | $590.08 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Chourio is the lone pick on this board for the Milwaukee half of tonight's nightcap, and it's not close for who the market likes most in this specific matchup.
He's been the engine of a Brewers lineup built to support an elite pitching staff, and even with Robbie Ray on the mound for San Diego, the 16% price reflects a real power threat rather than a throwaway long shot.
A $100 buy at a 16.01¢ average price is roughly 625 shares on this ticket, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Chourio homers: this ticket nets a profit of $590.08.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A little under 6-to-1 on the payout multiple, and with Misiorowski on the mound making the Padres' side of this market a pass tonight, Chourio is the only home run trade we're making in this game.
Beyond these seven home run tickets, every other Division Series Game 1 market is live on Polymarket right now too, from moneylines to full prop boards for each series, so it's worth a scan of the full slate before first pitch.
Today's MLB Odds: What's Moving the Home Run Market
The two shortest prices on the board, Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice at 22% apiece, both come from lineups that leaned on their supporting casts to survive the Wild Card round, which tends to push more power-hitting responsibility onto the hitters left standing.
On the other end, Ozzie Albies at 11% is the longest price of the slate, a reflection of a contact-oriented profile rather than any real injury or role concern.
The Padres-Brewers game stands apart from the rest of these MLB odds today: Jacob Misiorowski's home numbers are strong enough that the smarter home run trade in that game runs through Milwaukee's lineup, not San Diego's, which is why Chourio is the only pick from that matchup.
Across the board, these MLB home run predictions today line up with each hitter's actual role and recent form rather than any single storyline driving the whole slate.
That mix of short favorites and real long shots is what makes today's board some of the best home run bets today across the full Division Series slate.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Runs
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Four Division Series openers in one day is a rare slate, and the home run board reflects just how differently each series is shaping up early.
Ohtani and Rice sit at the top of the board for good reason, each backed by a lineup that's had to lean harder on its best bats just to survive the Wild Card round, while longer shots like Adell and Albies offer real leverage for traders chasing a bigger multiple.
The clearest read of the day, though, is Milwaukee: Misiorowski's home dominance is the reason there's no Padres pick here, and it's exactly the kind of context that should shape where you put money on the best home run bets today. For more on how these markets work, Action Network's beginner's guide to Polymarket is a good starting point, and the full prediction markets hub covers every other sport in season right now.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code for today's MLB home run props?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with it can deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus to use on any of today's Division Series markets.
What are today's best MLB Odds for Division Series home runs?
Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice headline the MLB home run predictions today, both tied for the board's shortest price at 22%. Ozzie Albies, at 11%, carries the longest odds of the slate.
Who is favored to hit a home run in tonight's games?
Ohtani in the Braves-Dodgers game and Rice in the Yankees-Rays game are both priced at 22%, the shortest implied probability of any player covered here.
What is the best home run prop today?
Our top picks are Ohtani and Rice, the two shortest-priced tickets on the board and the only two picks that carry the full Polymarket promo code pairing in this piece.
Why isn't there a Padres home run pick in this piece?
Jacob Misiorowski has been dominant at home all season, posting a 1.62 ERA and limiting opponents to a .158 average in Milwaukee. Given that split, we're not backing a San Diego hitter to go deep against him tonight.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and No if they don't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
When do today's home run markets resolve?
Each contract resolves once its specific game is final, based on official MLB box score data for that matchup.
Are there more MLB prediction markets to trade today?
Yes. Beyond these home run props, Polymarket has moneyline, spread, and additional prop markets live for all four Division Series Game 1s, plus markets across other sports, so these MLB odds are just one slice of what's tradeable right now.
