The Maine senate race 2026 is one of the tightest contests of the midterms, and the latest Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls show Democrat Troy Jackson clinging to a narrow edge over five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Those Maine senate race 2026 polls have bounced between a slim Jackson lead and a virtual tie since he entered the race in late July, and Polymarket and Kalshi are now pricing the Maine senate race as close to a coin flip with a slight lean toward Jackson.
With two debates already behind them and two more on the calendar this month, every new survey and market swing matters for the Maine senate race heading into the Nov. 3 election.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (56¢) | $178.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $222.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $175.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (44¢) | $227.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Maine senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Maine Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price doubling as the market's implied probability of that outcome happening.
A "Yes" contract on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that person wins Maine's Senate seat and $0 if they lose, and traders can buy or sell their position at any point before the race is called.
This market resolves once a winner is declared in the Nov. 3, 2026 Maine Senate election between Jackson and Collins.
Troy Jackson (YES 56¢ / NO 45¢)
Jackson has led nearly every public poll since becoming the Democratic nominee in late July, and Polymarket traders are pricing that momentum in at a modest 56¢.
A Washington Post/George Mason University poll released Oct. 9 put Jackson up four points, 50% to 46%, and a Marist poll from the same week showed an identical four-point edge.
Bernie Sanders also campaigned alongside Jackson in Bangor, Lewiston and Biddeford earlier this month, a sign Democrats see Maine as a legitimate flip opportunity.
Susan Collins (YES 45¢ / NO 56¢, -1 pt)
Collins slipped a point on Polymarket after a ProPublica report alleging a pay-for-play scheme, which she has denied, dogged her into the first debate on Oct. 6.
She's leaning on her seniority as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her record of outrunning other Maine Republicans, having won by double digits in both 2014 and 2020.
Still, the five-term incumbent has had to answer for her decades-old Kavanaugh confirmation vote on the debate stage, and a pro-Collins super PAC even admitted to running ads attacking Jackson in the wrong state.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's event contracts work the same way, pricing from 1¢ to 99¢ based on the market's implied probability of a given outcome.
A "Yes" position on Jackson pays out $1.00 per contract if he wins the seat and $0 if Collins wins, with traders free to exit their position any time before resolution.
Kalshi's "Maine Senate winner?" market settles the same way, once the race is officially called following the Nov. 3 election.
Troy Jackson (YES 57¢ / NO 44¢)
Kalshi traders have Jackson a point higher than Polymarket does, reflecting the same run of favorable polling that's defined the Maine senate race since midsummer.
An Abacus Data poll in September had Jackson up as much as nine points among likely voters, and while the race has tightened since, he hasn't trailed in an independent poll since a single late-September outlier.
Forecasters at the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the seat a pure toss-up, which keeps this contract from drifting much higher.
Susan Collins (YES 44¢ / NO 57¢)
Collins trades a cent cheaper on Kalshi than on Polymarket, a small gap but one that's held fairly steady through the first two debates.
Her campaign is counting on Maine's independent streak and her own history of running ahead of the national environment, much like she did against Sara Gideon in 2020 despite trailing in September polling that year.
Two more debates, on Oct. 13 and Oct. 15, give her additional chances to close the gap before ballots are finalized.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Maine Senate Race
Both exchanges agree on the basic shape of the race: Jackson is the favorite, but nowhere near a lock.
Jackson trades at YES 56¢ on Polymarket versus YES 57¢ on Kalshi, while Collins sits at YES 45¢ on Polymarket and YES 44¢ on Kalshi.
The one-cent gap on each side is small enough to chalk up to differences in each platform's trader base and order-book liquidity rather than any real disagreement about the underlying race.
Neither board has moved dramatically since the first debate, suggesting traders are waiting on the remaining two debates and any fresh polling before repricing either candidate.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Polls: Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Jackson entered the race in late July after Graham Platner dropped out, and he's led in nearly every independent poll since, with margins ranging from a statistical tie to the nine-point Abacus Data outlier.
The Washington Post/George Mason University and Marist polls released in the first week of October both showed Jackson up four points, reinforcing his position as the modest favorite on both exchanges.
A late-September ProPublica investigation into Collins' alleged involvement in a pay-for-play arrangement, which she denies, became a flashpoint heading into the first debate and has kept her odds from climbing back toward even money.
Collins is leaning on her Appropriations Committee chairmanship and her history of outperforming the national environment, the same case she made successfully against Sara Gideon in 2020 after trailing in that cycle's September polling too.
Two debates remain this month, and these Maine senate race 2026 polls will keep moving both boards right up until Election Day, with forecasters at Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still calling the seat a genuine toss-up.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (56¢) | $178.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $222.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $175.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (44¢) | $227.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Maine Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Maine Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
Both exchanges currently agree: Jackson is a modest favorite, Collins is very much alive, and nothing about this race is settled.
With two debates left and a steady stream of Maine senate race 2026 polls still landing, expect the Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls narrative, and these odds, to keep shifting into November.
Maine Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What do the latest Maine Senate race 2026 polls say in the Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls matchup?
Most public polling since late July has shown Troy Jackson with a narrow lead over Susan Collins, typically in the two- to four-point range, though an independent New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll in late September briefly showed Collins ahead.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Maine Senate race?
Polymarket has Jackson at 56¢ and Collins at 45¢, while Kalshi has Jackson at 57¢ and Collins at 44¢, putting both exchanges within a cent of each other on both candidates.
When does the Maine Senate 2026 election take place and when do these markets resolve?
Maine voters head to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026, and both the Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve once a winner is officially declared.
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Democrat Troy Jackson is the favorite on both platforms, trading in the high 50¢ range, but Susan Collins remains priced competitively enough that traders view the race as a genuine toss-up.
What's driving the one-cent gap between Polymarket and Kalshi on this race?
Small pricing gaps like this usually come down to each platform's own trader base and order-book depth rather than any real disagreement, since both exchanges are reacting to the same polls and debate coverage.
How can I trade Maine Senate race odds on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on either platform, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" contract on the candidate you expect to win; check out the trading guides above for a full walkthrough.
