NBA Playoff Trends: Cavaliers Face Uphill Battle in Boston After Game 7

The Cleveland Cavaliers are facing an uphill battle entering their series against the Boston Celtics in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs.

The Cavaliers just played a grueling seven-game series against the Orlando Magic in the opening round of the playoffs, and they had to come back from an 18-point first-half deficit to win Game 7 Sunday afternoon.

Now the Cavs are in Boston for Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinals series after just one day of rest since playing in Game 7. What does history say about teams in that spot?

The trends don't look great for the Cavaliers against the Celtics to open the series. Using 36 years of past playoff data, teams coming off a Game 7 win are 33-55 straight up in Game 1 of the following (h/t Raheem Palmer).

The most recent team to win a Game 7 and win the first game of the following series was the Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals. Teams in this spot haven't had much success in the series either, going 37-51 in the next round after playing in a Game 7.

Oddsmakers have the Celtics listed as high haas -2200 favorites to win the series at Caesars Sportsbook, and the Celtics enter Game 1 of this series as 12.5-point favorites across the board. If lines close at that number, it would be tied for the fifth-highest spread for a game in the second round of the playoffs or later.

Bettors appear to be on the Celtics train despite the lofty number. As of this writing, 52% of tickets and 54% of money bet on the spread is landing on the Celtics, who opened as 11-point favorites.