The New Jersey gubernatorial race is entering its home stretch, with Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill looking like the heavy favorite over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the winner, with Sherrill in front.
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NJ Governor's Race Odds
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NJ Governor's Race Timeline
Current New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has hit his term limit and will be succeeded by a newcomer as a result of this election. Murphy, a Democrat, has been in power throughout a drastic rightward shift not only in the United States, but his state specifically. His 2021 margin of victory was just 3.2 points, compared to his 14.1 point victory for his first term win in 2017.
The year-by-year increase in the popularity of the Republican Party in New Jersey, typically a blue state, raises the question of whether or not the Democrats will be able to hold onto the Governor's office. The Democratic nominee, Sherrill, still has a sizable lead in the polls, though that lead has come down in recent months.
Candidates and Primaries
Both primary elections were held on June 10, 2025. Mikie Sherrill, a U.S. representative from the 11th district, took the Democratic nomination with 34% of the vote.
The other Democrats who received a share of the vote included:
- Ras Baraka, Mayor of Newark (21%)
- Steven Fulop, Mayor of Jersey City (16%)
- Josh Gottheimer, U.S. representative for the 5th district (12%)
- Sean Spiller, former Mayor of Montclair (11%)
- Stephen Sweeney, former president of New Jersey Senate (7%)
On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli won the nomination in a landslide. The former state assemblyman from the 13th district raked in nearly 68% of the primary vote.
The other Republicans who received a share of the vote included:
- Bill Spadea, radio talk show host (22%)
- Jon Bramnick, state senator from the 21st district (6%)
- Mario Kranjac, former Mayor of Englewood Cliffs (3%)
- Justin Barbera, contractor (1%)
Debates
Two debates have taken place between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, the first of which occurred on September 21, 2025 from Rider University, and the second of which occured on October 8, 2025 from Rutgers University.
One of the most contentious moments of the campaign came in that second debate, when Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of profiting off of the opioid process via past business dealings. This issue had also come up in the 2021 gubernatorial race, which Ciattarelli lost to Phil Murphy.
Key Issues
The biggest issue of this election has been cost of life in the state, which both candidates have addressed in some form or another. New Jersey consistently has some of the highest taxes in the country, and Sherrill and Ciattarelli have made various promises to lower them.
To counter high cost of living, Sherrill has talked about her plan to increase the availability of affordable housing, as well as potentially freezing energy bills. Ciattarelli has also promised to address rising costs.
The state budget has perhaps been the biggest point of disagreement between the two sides. Ciattarelli wants to slash the budget and state spending to become more efficient, while Sherrill believes that spending on housing and reforming regulatory processes will make New Jersey more affordable.
But as many political races do, this one has come with plenty of personal attacks. Sherrill had attacked Ciattarelli during the second debate concerning his past business dealings, while Ciattarelli calling into question Sherrill's navy service.
