Tuesday's MLB slate offers two matchups to trade across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig: an AL East series opener between the Yankees and Orioles at Camden Yards, and an NL Central clash between the Cardinals and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Both games carry tight moneylines and some of the best MLB player props today for home runs, strikeouts, and more.
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Orioles vs Yankees – Best MLB Player Props Today
The Yankees (69-55, second in the AL East) head to Camden Yards holding a 5-2 edge in the season series, but they've been cold at the plate, scoring just two runs across their previous three games before a 10th-inning win over Toronto on Sunday.
Baltimore (61-64, fourth in the AL East) arrives off a walk-off 7-6 loss to Tampa Bay on Monday. Carlos Rodón (4-2, 3.30 ERA, 52 strikeouts) starts for New York against Shane Baz (4-12, 4.00 ERA, 122 strikeouts) for the Orioles, first pitch 6:35 PM ET.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi's Orioles vs Yankees board prices each side as a Yes/No contract in cents, where the price roughly mirrors the implied probability. New York sits at 50% (Yes 52¢ / No 49¢) and Baltimore is also at 50% (Yes 50¢ / No 52¢), reflecting a true coin-flip line before factoring home-field value.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- New York Y (50%, Yes 52¢ / No 49¢): Priced as a pure coin flip despite New York's better overall record, a sign the market is weighting Rodón's health questions after his recent elbow issue.
- Baltimore (50%, Yes 50¢ / No 52¢): The Orioles get full value at home off a walk-off win over Tampa, with Shane Baz's strikeout upside (122 on the season) offsetting his inflated ERA.
- New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs (38%, Yes 39¢ / No 62¢): The market isn't confident in a comfortable Yankees win, pricing the alternate run line well below a coin flip.
- Over 8.5 runs scored (50%, Yes 51¢ / No 50¢): A dead-even total that matches both offenses' recent cold stretches.
- Baltimore over 3.5 runs scored (56%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): The Orioles are favored to clear their own team total, a mild lean toward their bats bouncing back at home.
- New York Y over 4.5 runs scored (47%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢): Slightly below a coin flip, consistent with the Yankees' recent offensive slump.
Home Run Props
- Gunnar Henderson (1+ home run: Yes 13¢ / No 88¢): A modest 13% chance reflects Henderson's quieter recent stretch relative to his season-long power numbers.
- Pete Alonso (1+ home run: Yes 18¢ / No 83¢): Alonso is 18 for his last 38 with five home runs over his last 10 games, and this price captures that hot streak.
Strikeout Props
- Shane Baz (6+ strikeouts: Yes 57¢ / No 44¢): Baz has racked up 122 strikeouts this season, and the market gives him better than even odds to clear six against a Yankees lineup that's been cooling off.
- Carlos Rodón (5+ strikeouts: Yes 57¢ / No 44¢): A near-identical price to Baz's line, with Rodón's own strikeout stuff still intact even amid his health questions.
Kalshi's board only lists these two home run and two strikeout contracts for this matchup, a noticeably smaller prop menu than Polymarket or Novig carry for the same game.
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Orioles vs Yankees Odds on Polymarket
Polymarket's Yankees vs Orioles market shows New York at 52¢ (52% implied probability) and Baltimore at 49¢, essentially in line with Kalshi's numbers.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- New York Yankees (52¢, 52% implied): A slight favorite, consistent with the Yankees' better rotation depth on paper despite recent offensive struggles.
- Baltimore Orioles (49¢, 49% implied): Getting near pick'em treatment at home off Monday's walk-off win.
- NYY -1.5 (39¢) / BAL +1.5 (62¢): The market leans toward Baltimore covering the run line, mirroring Kalshi's alternate-line pricing.
- Over 8.5 (51¢) / Under 8.5 (50¢): A near coin-flip total that lines up with both offenses' recent cold spells.
Home Run Props
- Trent Grisham (Over 0.5: 20¢, Under 0.5: 81¢): Grisham has flashed pop over his last 10 games (four home runs), and this price captures modest but real upside.
- Coby Mayo (Over 0.5: 17¢, Under 0.5: 84¢): Mayo's .553 xwOBA against lefties like Rodón stands out as a real weapon in Baltimore's lineup.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Over 0.5: 17.1¢, Under 0.5: 99.9¢): Both sides are actively priced here, with the market still leaning heavily toward no home run.
- Ben Rice (Over 0.5: 20¢): Rice's contract only shows an active Over price on this board.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Over 0.5: 15¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Gunnar Henderson (Over 0.5: 14¢): Only the Over side is actively priced, tracking with Kalshi's similarly modest number.
- Heliot Ramos (Over 0.5: 15¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Luis García Jr. (Over 0.5: 15¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Pete Alonso (Over 0.5: 19¢): Only the Over side is actively priced, and it's Alonso's highest-priced contract across all three platforms given his recent hot streak.
- Spencer Jones (Over 0.5: 14¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Tyler O'Neill (Over 0.5: 17¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
Several contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so those entries above show a single figure rather than both an Over and Under quote.
Strikeout Props
- Carlos Rodón (Over 4.5: 56¢, Under 4.5: 47¢): The market favors Rodón clearing four and a half strikeouts even with his elbow concerns.
- Shane Baz (Over 5.5: 58¢, Under 5.5: 45¢): A slightly more confident lean than Rodón's line, backed by Baz's 122 strikeouts this season.
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Orioles vs Yankees Odds on Novig
Novig frames its Orioles vs Yankees board purely in percentages with no cents figure attached, positioning itself as a peer-to-peer exchange rather than a traditional sportsbook.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- New York Y (51.5% implied): A touch higher than Kalshi and Polymarket's numbers, but still inside a razor-thin range across all three platforms.
- Baltimore (49.0% implied): Trading within a point of the other two books.
- NYY -1.5 (39.5% implied) / BAL +1.5 (61.5% implied): Nearly identical to Polymarket's spread pricing.
- Over 8.5 (50.5% implied) / Under 8.5 (50.5% implied): A dead-even total across the board.
Home Run Props
- Ben Rice (Over 0.5: 21.0%, Under 0.5: 82.5%): Novig actively prices both sides here, unlike Polymarket's one-sided quote for the same player.
- Trent Grisham (Over 0.5: 21.0%, Under 0.5: 81.3%): Close to Polymarket's 20¢ price on the same contract.
- Pete Alonso (Over 0.5: 19.5%, Under 0.5: 81.5%): Alonso's recent power surge is showing up consistently across all three platforms.
- Coby Mayo (Over 0.5: 19.0%, Under 0.5: 88.0%): Slightly higher than Polymarket's 17¢ quote on the same matchup edge against a lefty.
- Tyler O'Neill (Over 0.5: 19.0%, Under 0.5: 84.0%): A fully two-sided market here, versus Polymarket's Over-only quote.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Over 0.5: 18.5%, Under 0.5: 87.0%): In line with the modest power expectations set on the other two platforms.
- Luis García Jr. (Over 0.5: 17.5%, Under 0.5: 84.5%): Tracks closely with Polymarket's number for the same player.
- Heliot Ramos (Over 0.5: 17.0%, Under 0.5: 87.0%): The most conservative home run price on Novig's board for this game.
Strikeout Props
- Shane Baz (Over 5.5: 56.0%, Under 5.5: 44.5%): Nearly identical to Kalshi's strikeout pricing on the same threshold.
- Carlos Rodón (Over 4.5: 57.5%, Under 4.5: 44.0%): A slightly more confident lean than what's showing on Kalshi or Polymarket.
For traders comparing books before placing a position, the full prediction markets hub tracks how these lines move throughout the day.
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Cardinals vs Reds – Best MLB Player Props Today
The Cardinals (64-62, third in the NL Central) travel to Cincinnati holding the better record against the Reds (60-65, fifth in the NL Central), and enter Tuesday fresh off a split doubleheader on Monday, winning Game 1 behind five perfect relief innings before Cincinnati walked off Game 2 on an Elly De La Cruz deflected single.
Kyle Leahy (9-4, 3.38 ERA, 105 strikeouts) starts for St. Louis against Andrew Abbott (6-7, 4.13 ERA, 102 strikeouts) for Cincinnati at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, first pitch 6:40 PM ET.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi's Cardinals vs Reds market has St. Louis trading at 52% (Yes 53¢ / No 48¢) and Cincinnati at 48% (Yes 48¢ / No 53¢), giving the Cardinals a modest edge on the road.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- St. Louis (52%, Yes 53¢ / No 48¢): The Cardinals' healthier roster and Monday's bullpen performance back this modest favorite status.
- Cincinnati (48%, Yes 48¢ / No 53¢): The Reds get a reasonable chance at home despite a thin rotation that's dealt with multiple injured-list moves this season.
- St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs (39%, Yes 40¢ / No 61¢): The market isn't pricing in a blowout, keeping this alternate line well under even money.
- Over 8.5 runs scored (53%, Yes 54¢ / No 47¢): A slight lean to the over fits Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly reputation.
- Cincinnati over 3.5 runs scored (56%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): The Reds' 163 home runs this season support this team total clearing.
- St. Louis over 4.5 runs scored (47%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢): Slightly below even money, tracking with both lineups ranking near the bottom of the NL in OPS.
Home Run Props
- Elly De La Cruz (1+ home run: Yes 17¢ / No 84¢): De La Cruz is fresh off Monday's walk-off hit, and this 17% price reflects his real but modest power upside on any given night.
This is the only home run contract Kalshi has listed for tonight's game, a smaller board than what Polymarket or Novig carry for the same matchup.
Strikeout Props
- Andrew Abbott (5+ strikeouts: Yes 49¢ / No 52¢): Abbott's 64 walks in 133 innings create traffic that could cap his strikeout upside against a patient Cardinals lineup.
- Kyle Leahy (6+ strikeouts: Yes 46¢ / No 55¢): Leahy's steadier 3.38 ERA hasn't translated into a swing-and-miss profile that clears this threshold with confidence.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds on Polymarket
Polymarket has St. Louis at 53¢ (53% implied) and Cincinnati at 48¢, matching Kalshi's lean toward the Cardinals almost exactly.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- St. Louis Cardinals (53¢, 53% implied): Consistent with Kalshi's number and the market's broader lean toward St. Louis's healthier roster.
- Cincinnati Reds (48¢, 48% implied): The Reds' pitching injuries continue to weigh on their moneyline price across every platform.
- STL -1.5 (41¢) / CIN +1.5 (60¢): A slightly better price for the Cardinals covering than Kalshi's spread line.
- Over 8.5 (55¢) / Under 8.5 (46¢): A firmer lean to the over here than on Kalshi, again pointing to the hitter-friendly park factor.
Home Run Props
- Jordan Walker (Over 0.5: 21¢): Walker's price is the highest of the batch, reflecting his recent power output for St. Louis.
- Alec Burleson (Over 0.5: 18¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Sal Stewart (Over 0.5: 18¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Elly De La Cruz (Over 0.5: 18¢): A nearly identical price to Kalshi's 17¢ line on the same player.
- JJ Bleday (Over 0.5: 17¢): Bleday's 20 home runs this season keep this contract in play despite his low .223 average.
- Joshua Baez (Over 0.5: 17¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- JJ Wetherholt (Over 0.5: 16¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Masyn Winn (Over 0.5: 12¢): The lowest-priced contract in this batch.
- Iván Herrera (Over 0.5: 15¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
- Noelvi Marte (Over 0.5: 11¢): Only the Over side is actively priced.
Every home run contract on this board only has an active Over price, so the Under side is omitted rather than shown as a placeholder.
Strikeout Props
- Andrew Abbott (Over 4.5: 49¢, Under 4.5: 99¢): Both sides are actively priced, with the market leaning heavily toward Abbott clearing this modest strikeout threshold.
- Kyle Leahy (Over 5.5: 46¢, Under 5.5: 99¢): A similarly lopsided lean toward the Over given Leahy's swing-and-miss stuff this season.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds on Novig
Novig's Cardinals vs Reds board again runs on straight percentages, with St. Louis trading at 52.5% implied and Cincinnati at 48.0%.
Moneyline, Spread & Total
- St. Louis (52.5% implied): The tightest of the three moneyline numbers on St. Louis, but still favoring the Cardinals.
- Cincinnati (48.0% implied): Consistent with both Kalshi's and Polymarket's pricing.
- STL -1.5 (40.0% implied) / CIN +1.5 (60.5% implied): Nearly identical to Kalshi's spread pricing for this matchup.
- Over 8.5 (55.5% implied) / Under 8.5 (45.5% implied): Matches Polymarket's lean toward the over almost exactly.
Home Run Props
- Jordan Walker (Over 0.5: 23.0%, Under 0.5: 80.5%): The highest home run price on this board, tracking with Polymarket's similarly elevated number for Walker.
- Sal Stewart (Over 0.5: 21.0%, Under 0.5: 86.0%): Novig prices both sides here, unlike Polymarket's Over-only quote.
- Alec Burleson (Over 0.5: 20.0%, Under 0.5: 83.5%): A fully two-sided market for a player Polymarket only quotes on the Over.
- Elly De La Cruz (Over 0.5: 20.0%, Under 0.5: 83.0%): Close to both Kalshi's and Polymarket's numbers for the same contract.
- JJ Bleday (Over 0.5: 19.5%, Under 0.5: 83.5%): In line with his power production this season.
- Joshua Baez (Over 0.5: 19.5%, Under 0.5: 84.0%): A modest but real price reflecting Baez's occasional pop.
- Everson Pereira (Over 0.5: 18.5%, Under 0.5: 87.5%): A contract not listed on either Kalshi or Polymarket's boards for this game.
- Eugenio Suárez (Over 0.5: 18.5%, Under 0.5: 86.0%): Another Novig-exclusive listing for tonight's slate.
Strikeout Props
- Kyle Leahy (Over 5.5: 44.0%, Under 5.5: 56.0%): Novig actually leans toward the Under here, a notable split from Polymarket's heavy Over lean on the same threshold.
- Andrew Abbott (Over 4.5: 49.5%, Under 4.5: 52.0%): A near coin-flip price, again diverging from Polymarket's lopsided number for the same pitcher.
Both platforms' trading apps let you set alerts for these props as lines move closer to first pitch. Beyond these two matchups, all three platforms carry active markets on the rest of tonight's MLB slate for traders looking to build out a full card.
Use Kalshi, Polymarket & Novig Promo Code "ACTION" to Trade Today's MLB Slate
Ready to take a position on either game? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Read a comprehensive Novig review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the relevant tab on each platform to stay ahead of live order book movements as first pitch approaches for both games.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Orioles vs Yankees, Cardinals vs Reds: Final Thoughts
Both games are shaping up close on paper: Orioles vs Yankees is essentially a coin flip across all three platforms, while Cardinals vs Reds shows a consistent, modest lean toward St. Louis.
The best MLB player props today come down to a handful of standout names, Pete Alonso's home run price and Elly De La Cruz's recent walk-off heroics chief among them, with Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly reputation giving the Reds' team total extra weight.
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Best MLB Player Props Today FAQs
What is the current Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig promo code?
The current promo code across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig is ACTION. Enter it during sign-up on any of the three platforms to unlock each platform's welcome offer before trading tonight's MLB slate.
What are the current odds for Orioles vs Yankees?
New York is trading between 50% and 52% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig, with Baltimore in the 48% to 50% range, making this one of the tightest moneylines on tonight's board.
What are the current odds for Cardinals vs Reds?
St. Louis is priced between 52% and 53% across all three platforms, with Cincinnati trading in the 48% range, giving the Cardinals a consistent but modest edge heading into first pitch.
Who is favored in tonight's Orioles vs Yankees game?
The Yankees hold a razor-thin edge on most boards, though Kalshi actually shows a dead-even 50/50 split. Baltimore's home-field advantage and Monday's walk-off win are keeping the Orioles competitive in the pricing.
What is a notable player prop for Cardinals vs Reds tonight?
Elly De La Cruz's home run prop stands out after his walk-off hit in Monday's doubleheader, priced between 17% and 20% across the three platforms to go deep again.
Why do some player props only show one side priced?
Several home run contracts on Polymarket in particular only have an active price on the Over side, with the Under left unpriced rather than shown as a placeholder. This happens when there isn't enough trading interest to establish a two-sided market for that specific contract.
How do Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig contracts work?
Each platform lets traders buy shares in a specific outcome, such as a team winning or a player recording a stat. Correctly resolved shares pay out at a fixed value, while incorrect shares pay nothing. Kalshi and Polymarket display these prices in cents, while Novig shows straight percentages as a peer-to-peer exchange.
When do tonight's Orioles vs Yankees and Cardinals vs Reds markets resolve?
Both markets resolve shortly after their respective games conclude, based on the official final box score. Player prop contracts resolve based on that player's final in-game statistics.
