Steelers vs Browns Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Kalshi NFL TD Props Today (TNF Best Bets)

Thursday Night Football has real teeth this week. Pittsburgh (2-1) and Cleveland (2-1) meet at Huntington Bank Field with the early AFC North lead on the line, and Kalshi has a full touchdown scorer slate up for it, anytime TD and first TD, plus a wrinkle most boards don't carry: priced contracts on each team's defense/special teams unit to score.

Jaylen Warren enters as the chalk on both boards after shouldering a heavy workload in last week's win over Cincinnati, and he gets a Cleveland run defense that's quietly been leaking yardage to opposing backs. Rookie Denzel Boston already has a 46-yard touchdown catch to his name this season, and Browns center Elgton Jenkins has been ruled out with a concussion, which thins out Cleveland's offensive line right as Pittsburgh's pass rush arrives in town.

Below is the full board, 20 priced entries across both markets, ranked by anytime TD price, followed by a closer look at the plays worth trading tonight.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction

Both teams arrive 2-1, and every club in the AFC North currently has a winning record, so Thursday's winner leads the division heading into Week 5. Pittsburgh's offense finally clicked in a 30-27 win over Cincinnati last week, with Warren carrying a heavy workload. Cleveland is riding its own two-game streak after upsetting Carolina at home, but it enters banged up: starting center Elgton Jenkins is out with a concussion, and the run defense has allowed 80-plus rushing yards to opposing backs in each of the last two weeks.

On resolution: Kalshi's anytime markets pay out on possession-and-control touchdowns, rushing or receiving, with passing touchdowns excluded. If a priced player is active but never takes a single snap, that contract settles at the last fair market price before kickoff rather than voiding; once he takes even one snap, even one erased by penalty, it settles strictly on touchdowns scored. The first TD market only pays if that name scores the game's opening touchdown, by either team; anyone else getting there first resolves the position No, regardless of what happens later in the game. If nobody scores at all, the separate No Touchdown Scored contract resolves Yes and every player and D/ST contract resolves No.

Best Touchdown Scorer – Jaylen Warren

Warren was the focal point of Pittsburgh's offense last week and gets rewarded for it here with the shortest price on the entire board. The matchup only helps his case: Cleveland has given up 80-plus rushing yards to opposing backs in back-to-back weeks.

At 49% (49¢) anytime, that reads fair given the workload and the matchup, not rich. The 17% (17¢) first TD number is a different question: it leads the board, but a near coin-flip anytime price paired with a 17% share of opening the scoring suggests the market still expects this one to be a back-and-forth game rather than a Warren-scripted opener.

A $100 buy is roughly 204 shares at 49¢ on anytime, or roughly 588 shares at 17¢ on first TD. Fees and order book depth mean the realized return on either lands a touch under the headline math.

Anytime TD: a Warren score of any kind resolves Yes for $104.08 in profit on $100; no score and the position is a total loss. First TD: pays $488.24 in profit only if Warren specifically opens the game's scoring; anyone else getting there first, Cleveland included, resolves it No.

Roughly a 2.0x payout on anytime and a 5.9x payout on first TD, a gap that's really a question of whether Pittsburgh scripts the opening drive to him or gets there later in the game.

Best CLE Running Back Touchdown Scorer – Quinshon Judkins

Judkins remains Cleveland's clear lead back ahead of Dylan Sampson and Raheim Sanders, and the running game may need to carry more of the offensive load Thursday with Jenkins out at center.

The 40% (40¢) anytime price prices him as a true workhorse option, which tracks with his snap share. His 14% (14¢) first TD number is the second-best on the board, fitting a Browns coaching staff that has leaned on him in short-yardage situations.

A $100 position buys roughly 250 shares at 40¢ anytime, or roughly 714 shares at 14¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: resolves Yes for $150.00 in profit on a Judkins score; a scoreless night loses the full $100. First TD: pays $614.29 in profit only on the game's opening touchdown.

That's roughly a 2.5x anytime payout and a 7.1x first TD payout, the two best non-Warren numbers on either board.

Best Wide Receiver Touchdown Scorer – DK Metcalf

Metcalf remains Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 target and is priced in a flat tie with Michael Pittman Jr. on anytime, though his first TD number separates the two.

At 28% (28¢) anytime, that's a fair top-receiver price against a Cleveland secondary that's had its issues. His 9% (9¢) first TD price is the highest among this board's non-running backs, reflecting that Pittsburgh does occasionally go to him early.

A $100 buy is roughly 357 shares at 28¢ anytime, or roughly 1,111 shares at 9¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Metcalf score pays $257.14 in profit; no score is a total loss. First TD: pays $1,011.11 in profit, but only on the game's opening touchdown.

Roughly a 3.6x anytime payout and an 11.1x first TD payout, a fair number for Pittsburgh's clearest outside receiving threat.

Best Value Touchdown Scorer – Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman is priced exactly even with Metcalf on the anytime board despite playing the complementary role in this passing game, which is the most interesting gap on the sheet.

That 28% (28¢) anytime price looks like genuine value for a true No. 2 who commands the same implied probability as the team's alpha receiver. The 5% (5¢) first TD price, well below Metcalf's, is the market's way of saying Pittman is a volume-and-matchup score, not an opening-drive design.

A $100 position buys roughly 357 shares at 28¢ anytime, or roughly 2,000 shares at 5¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: pays $257.14 in profit on a Pittman score; nothing and the $100 is gone. First TD: pays $1,900.00 in profit, only if he's the one who opens the scoring.

That's a 3.6x anytime payout, identical to Metcalf's, on a player getting fewer first-read looks, the clearest value argument on this board.

Best Tight End Touchdown Scorer – Harold Fannin Jr.

Fannin remains the engine of Cleveland's passing game even with two rookie receivers now drawing targets, and he's priced above every wideout on either roster.

At 24% (24¢) anytime, that fits a tight end who commands the kind of short-area volume that tends to translate into scores. The 7% (7¢) first TD price undersells him slightly given how often he's schemed the ball early in drives.

A $100 buy is roughly 417 shares at 24¢ anytime, or roughly 1,429 shares at 7¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Fannin score resolves Yes for $316.67 in profit; no score and the $100 is lost. First TD: pays $1,328.57 in profit only on the opening touchdown of the game.

Roughly a 4.2x anytime payout and a 14.3x first TD payout, with the longer number compensating fairly for a genuinely narrow path.

Best Breakout Touchdown Scorer – Denzel Boston

Boston already has a touchdown on his rookie ledger, a 46-yard catch against Jacksonville in Week 1, and at 6-foot-4 he's built to win the contested, red-zone-style targets that turn into scores.

The 22% (22¢) anytime price reflects a rookie who's drawing real volume alongside fellow first-year wideout KC Concepcion. The 6% (6¢) first TD price looks light given his size and role, since a jump-ball threat is exactly the profile that can finish a scripted opener, not just a mid-game drive.

A $100 position is roughly 455 shares at 22¢ anytime, or roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: pays $354.55 in profit on a Boston score; no score and it's a total loss. First TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit, only if he opens the game's scoring.

Roughly a 4.5x anytime payout and a 16.7x first TD payout, the latter a real longshot number on a rookie who has already shown he can finish a big play.

Best Quarterback Touchdown Scorer – Deshaun Watson

This price is about rushing touchdowns only, since Kalshi's anytime markets exclude passing scores entirely. Watson has had goal-line carries called for him in the past and remains a mobile threat even with Cleveland's offensive line banged up at center.

At 17% (17¢) anytime, the board is treating him as a real short-yardage runner, which fits his history. The 6% (6¢) first TD price is a fair reflection of how rarely a quarterback sneak opens the scoring, even when it's live.

A $100 buy is roughly 588 shares at 17¢ anytime, or roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Watson rushing score pays $488.24 in profit; no rushing score loses the full $100, regardless of how he throws the ball. First TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit only on the game's opening touchdown.

That's roughly a 5.9x anytime payout and a 16.7x first TD payout, live numbers for a quarterback who has scored with his legs before.

Best Longshot Touchdown Scorer – Aaron Rodgers

At 42, Rodgers isn't the scrambling threat he once was, and this price is tied with two Steelers special-teamers for the widest point on the anytime board.

The 6% (6¢) anytime price prices in an occasional sneak or scramble, nothing more. The 2% (2¢) first TD number is as far out on the longshot spectrum as this board gets.

A $100 position buys roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ anytime, or a striking 5,000 shares at 2¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit on the rare occasion Rodgers scores himself. First TD: pays $4,900.00 in profit, but only if Rodgers somehow opens the entire game's scoring.

Roughly a 16.7x anytime payout and a 50x first TD payout, a true lottery-ticket price worth a token position at most.

Kalshi has additional Steelers-Browns markets live beyond these touchdown scorer boards, including game lines and other player props, for anyone looking to build a bigger position on tonight's game.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Kalshi

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the touchdown scorer tabs on Kalshi to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

Warren's price jump to the top of both boards traces directly to his workload last week and a Cleveland run defense that has now allowed 80-plus rushing yards to opposing backs in consecutive games.

The two Steelers and Browns D/ST contracts both pricing in the 15-16% range on anytime is a notable wrinkle unique to this board: it implies real respect for each defense's ability to score off a turnover or special teams return, not just a round-number filler price.

Pittman and Metcalf pricing dead even on anytime, despite clearly different roles in this passing game, is the single most interesting number on the sheet, and it's worth watching whether that gap closes or widens as more money comes in before kickoff.

Lineup news, especially anything further on Cleveland's offensive line with Jenkins out, can move this board quickly. Keep an eye on the relevant tabs through the prediction market apps as kickoff approaches.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This board runs from a 49¢ favorite down to a 2¢ true longshot, and the first TD contracts in particular are all genuine longshots, nothing on that sheet clears 17%. Treat these as small-stake swings rather than a slate to spread evenly across at full size.

Every contract here is independent and all-or-nothing. A Warren anytime position and a Boston first TD position don't combine into anything; each lives or dies on its own criteria, and sizing either like a parlay leg is the fastest way to misjudge the risk.

Warren and Judkins remain the two plays that look like fair value against what's actually happening on the field tonight. The D/ST contracts and the deep rookie longshots are upside bets, not probability bets.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Bets: Kalshi Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Kalshi promo code and offer for tonight's game?

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What are the best touchdown bets on tonight's Steelers-Browns board?

Jaylen Warren and Quinshon Judkins carry the two shortest anytime prices on the board and reflect the clearest real-world roles, Warren with a heavy workload against a leaky Cleveland run defense, Judkins as the Browns' clear lead back. Both are the closest thing this board has to fair value.

Which player carries the highest implied probability to score?

Jaylen Warren, at 49% to score anytime, is the shortest price on the entire board in either market.

How do Kalshi anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

A player scores when he possesses and controls the ball while breaking the plane of the goal line. Passing touchdowns never count. If a priced player is active but never takes a snap, the contract settles at the last fair market price before kickoff; once he takes even one snap, even one wiped out by penalty, it settles strictly on touchdowns scored.

How does the first touchdown scorer market differ from anytime TD?

A first TD contract only pays out if the named player, or named defense, scores the very first touchdown of the game. Scoring two or three touchdowns later in the game does nothing for that specific contract if someone else got there first, which is why first TD prices run so much lower than anytime prices for the same player.

What happens if neither team scores a touchdown?

The separate No Touchdown Scored contract resolves Yes, and every player and D/ST touchdown contract on the board resolves No.

How do I claim the promo and start trading?

Sign up through the links in this article, enter the promo code where prompted, and fund your account to start buying Yes or No contracts on tonight's board.

When do these contracts settle?

Both anytime and first TD contracts settle based on the official result of the Steelers-Browns game, shortly after the final whistle, once the box score is confirmed.

Why is Jaylen Warren the Editor's Pick, and what's the risk?

Warren leads both markets off a heavy workload last week and a Cleveland run defense that's allowed 80-plus rushing yards to opposing backs in each of its last two games. The risk is that these are still all-or-nothing contracts; a quiet night for Pittsburgh's offense, or a short-yardage score going to someone else in the backfield, resolves the position No regardless of how the price looked beforehand.

Are there more touchdown markets available beyond this game?

Yes. Kalshi carries anytime and first TD markets, along with other player props, across every game on the Week 4 slate, not just Steelers-Browns.