Steelers vs Browns Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Best NFL TD Props Today on Polymarket (TNF Best Bets)

Thursday Night Football brings an AFC North grudge match to Huntington Bank Field, and Polymarket has two full touchdown scorer boards up for it: anytime TD and first TD. This piece covers both for the Steelers-Browns matchup, with 17 players priced across the two markets.

The headline story is at running back. Steelers rusher Jaylen Warren sits atop both boards after Rico Dowdle was ruled out for a second straight week, and Cleveland counters with Quinshon Judkins as the only player within shouting distance of him. Behind that, the Browns' retooled receiver room, rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, plus Harold Fannin Jr., gives this board more texture than a typical divisional matchup.

Below is the full board ranked by anytime TD price, followed by a closer look at the plays worth trading tonight.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction

Pittsburgh travels to Cleveland for the Browns' only national TV window of 2026, and this one carries real stakes for a Steelers offense that just lost its lead back and a Browns offense built around a quarterback who won the job by default. Cleveland's run defense has a reputation for making life hard on opposing backs, which makes Pittsburgh's backfield situation the swing factor on this board.

On the resolution side: both anytime markets here pay out on any rushing or receiving touchdown by the named player, with passing touchdowns excluded in both cases. The first TD market only pays if that player scores the game's opening touchdown, by either team; scoring two touchdowns later in the game does nothing for that contract if someone else got there first.

Best Touchdown Scorer – Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh ruled out Rico Dowdle for the second straight week with a toe injury, and Steelers coach Mike McCarthy didn't hide how big a workload Warren carried last week in his absence, calling him the offense's focal point. The market has responded accordingly, pricing Warren as the clear chalk on both boards.

At 48% (48¢) for anytime, the board is essentially treating this as a workhorse-back price, and given the Dowdle news, that reads fair rather than rich. The first TD number at 17% (17¢) is more interesting: Warren leads the board there too, but a 48% anytime score with only a 17% share of opening the game suggests the market expects Cleveland and Pittsburgh to trade scores rather than hand Warren the very first one.

A $100 buy on the anytime line works out to roughly 208 shares at 48¢, each worth $1 on a Yes. On the first TD line, that same $100 buys roughly 588 shares at 17¢. Order book depth and fees mean the realized return on either lands a touch under the headline math.

Anytime TD: if Warren finds the end zone at any point, the trade resolves Yes for $108.33 in profit on $100; if he doesn't, the $100 is gone. First TD: if Warren specifically scores the game's opening touchdown, that separate position pays $488.24 in profit; if anyone else scores first, including a Warren score later in the game, it resolves No.

Roughly a 2.1x payout on anytime and a 5.9x payout on first TD, and the gap between those two numbers is really a bet on whether Pittsburgh scripts an opening drive around him.

Best Running Back Touchdown Scorer – Quinshon Judkins

Judkins sits ahead of backup Dylan Sampson and veteran Raheim Sanders on Cleveland's depth chart and is the clear early-down and goal-line option in Todd Monken's offense. He's the only player on either board within shouting distance of Warren.

At 41% (41¢) anytime, the board has him priced as a near-equal to Pittsburgh's lead back, which tracks with his workload. His 14% (14¢) first TD price actually edges Warren's share of opening-drive touchdowns once you account for the overall gap between the two, which fits a Browns offense that has leaned on him in short-yardage situations.

A $100 position buys roughly 244 shares at 41¢ on anytime, or roughly 714 shares at 14¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Judkins score resolves Yes for $143.90 in profit; no score and the $100 is lost. First TD: only the opening score counts, paying $614.29 in profit if he gets there first, nothing if anyone else does.

Call it a 2.4x anytime payout and a 7.1x first TD payout, both of which price him as this board's second-best bet to score, full stop.

Best Wide Receiver Touchdown Scorer – DK Metcalf

Metcalf is Aaron Rodgers' clear top target after Pittsburgh paired him with Michael Pittman Jr. in the offseason, and he's priced well clear of every other receiver on this board.

At 28% (28¢), that reads about right for a true No. 1 receiver facing a Cleveland secondary that has had its hands full with bigger-bodied outside threats this year. His 8% (8¢) first TD price makes sense too: the Steelers tend to establish the run before they test downfield, so an opening-drive score through the air is a tougher ask.

A $100 buy gets roughly 357 shares at 28¢ anytime, or roughly 1,250 shares at 8¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Metcalf score pays $257.14 in profit on the $100 position; nothing and it's a total loss. First TD: only counts if he's the opening scorer, paying $1,150.00 in profit if so.

That's roughly a 3.6x payout on anytime and a 12.5x payout on first TD, a wide gap that reflects how rarely this Pittsburgh offense opens with a deep shot to its No. 1 receiver.

Best Tight End Touchdown Scorer – Harold Fannin Jr.

Fannin was Cleveland's leading target earner a year ago and remains the focal point of the Browns' passing game even with two rookie receivers now in the building. He's priced above every receiver on either roster.

At 24% (24¢) anytime, that's a fair reflection of a tight end who commands the kind of volume that usually translates into red zone work, even in an offense that has struggled to finish drives. The 7% (7¢) first TD number undersells him a little relative to his volume, since a short-area target like Fannin is exactly the type of player who can finish a scripted opener.

A $100 position buys roughly 417 shares at 24¢ anytime, or roughly 1,429 shares at 7¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Fannin score resolves Yes for $316.67 in profit; no score and the full $100 is lost. First TD: pays $1,328.57 in profit only if he scores the game's opening touchdown.

Roughly a 4.2x payout on anytime and a 14.3x payout on first TD, with the first TD price doing the better job of compensating for the genuinely narrow path.

Best Breakout Touchdown Scorer – KC Concepcion

The first-round rookie has been deployed all over Cleveland's formation this season, including jet sweeps and designed touches that get the ball in his hands outside the standard route tree. That versatility is exactly why he's priced ahead of veteran Jerry Jeudy on this board despite splitting the room with fellow rookie Denzel Boston.

At 23% (23¢), the market is pricing Concepcion as a legitimate second scoring option in this passing game, which lines up with how often Cleveland has schemed him the ball. The 6% (6¢) first TD price is light relative to that volume, since designed touches are exactly the kind of play a team scripts into an opening drive.

A $100 buy is roughly 435 shares at 23¢ anytime, or roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: resolves Yes for $334.78 in profit if Concepcion scores; the full $100 is lost otherwise. First TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit only on the game's opening score.

That's roughly a 4.3x anytime payout and a 16.7x first TD payout, a longshot price on a rookie who already looks live in the touches that matter.

Best Red Zone Target Touchdown Scorer – Denzel Boston

At 6-foot-4, Boston is built differently than Concepcion, and Cleveland has used him exactly that way: as a boundary, contested-catch target who can win jump balls in the red zone. That profile is the most direct path to a touchdown on this entire roster.

His 22% (22¢) anytime price sits almost identical to Concepcion's, which reflects two rookies getting comparable early-season volume through very different roles. The 6% (6¢) first TD price undersells the red-zone argument a little, since Boston's game is built for scoring, not for opening a drive.

A $100 position is roughly 455 shares at 22¢ anytime, or roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Boston score pays $354.55 in profit on the $100 trade; no score and it's a total loss. First TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit only if he's the one who opens the game's scoring.

Roughly a 4.5x anytime payout and a 16.7x first TD payout, the latter a long shot even by this market's standards, but not an unreasonable one given the role.

Best Quarterback Touchdown Scorer – Deshaun Watson

Watson's price here reflects rushing touchdowns only, since passing scores never count on these contracts. He won a close summer competition over Shedeur Sanders and has started every game, but the seat is widely reported as warm if Cleveland struggles in this one.

At 17% (17¢), the board is pricing him as a real goal-line running threat, which fits his history as a mobile quarterback even coming off multiple injuries. The 6% (6¢) first TD price looks about right for a quarterback sneak or scramble opening the game's scoring, which does happen but isn't the way most teams prefer to start.

A $100 buy is roughly 588 shares at 17¢ anytime, or roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: a Watson rushing score pays $488.24 in profit; no rushing score and the $100 is lost regardless of how he throws. First TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit only on the opening score of the game.

That's roughly a 5.9x anytime payout and a 16.7x first TD payout, a sneaky-live number for a quarterback who has had goal-line carries called for him before.

Best Longshot Touchdown Scorer – Aaron Rodgers

At 42, Rodgers isn't tucking the ball and running much anymore, and the board reflects that reality. This is the single widest price on the anytime board and the widest on the first TD board.

At 6% (6¢) anytime, the market is basically pricing in a once-in-a-blue-moon sneak or scramble, not a rushing threat. The 2% (2¢) first TD price is about as far out on the longshot spectrum as this board gets.

A $100 position buys roughly 1,667 shares at 6¢ anytime, or a striking 5,000 shares at 2¢ on first TD.

Anytime TD: pays $1,566.67 in profit on the rare occasion Rodgers punches one in himself. First TD: pays $4,900.00 in profit, but only if Rodgers somehow scores the very first touchdown of the entire game.

Roughly a 16.7x anytime payout and a 50x first TD payout, a lottery-ticket price that's only worth a token position, not a core one.

Polymarket has additional Steelers-Browns markets live beyond the touchdown scorer boards, including game lines and other player props, for anyone who wants to build out a bigger position on this one.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Polymarket

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this beginner's guide to Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the touchdown scorer tabs on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The Dowdle injury is the single biggest driver on this board. Warren's anytime price jumping to the top of the sheet, and his first TD number climbing with it, both trace back to Pittsburgh's backfield being down to one healthy lead option.

Cleveland's two rookie receivers pricing so close together, Concepcion at 23% and Boston at 22% on anytime, says the market sees real separation between the Browns' passing-game weapons and the rest of their depth chart, Jerry Jeudy included at just 8%.

The 2% price on the no-touchdown-scorer contract on the first TD board is worth noting too: it implies the market sees it as all but certain someone finds the end zone at some point Thursday night, even in a game that features two offenses still finding their footing.

Lineup news, especially anything on Pat Freiermuth, Michael Pittman Jr., or the Browns' tight end rotation, can move this board quickly before kickoff. Keep an eye on the relevant tabs through the prediction market apps as the afternoon progresses.

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NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This board runs from a 48¢ favorite down to a 2¢ longshot, and that range matters. The first TD contracts in particular are genuine longshots across the board, nobody on this sheet is priced above 17%, so treat these as small-stake swings rather than a slate to spread evenly across at full size.

Every contract here is an independent all-or-nothing position. A Warren anytime trade and a Concepcion first TD trade don't combine into anything; each lives or dies on its own criteria, and sizing a position like a parlay is the fastest way to misjudge the risk.

Warren and Judkins are the two plays that actually look like fair value relative to what's happening on the field tonight. Everything after that is a bet on upside, not a bet on probability.

NFL Predictions and Anytime Touchdown Props: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code and offer for tonight's game?

Sign up using the promo code ACTION to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!

What are the best touchdown bets on tonight's Steelers-Browns board?

Jaylen Warren and Quinshon Judkins carry the two shortest anytime prices on the board and reflect the clearest real-world roles, Warren with Rico Dowdle out and Judkins as Cleveland's lead back. Both are the closest thing this board has to fair value.

Which player carries the highest implied probability to score?

Jaylen Warren, at 48% to score anytime, is the shortest price on the entire board in either market.

How do Polymarket anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

Anytime TD contracts resolve Yes if the named player scores one or more rushing or receiving touchdowns. Passing touchdowns never count toward these contracts, which matters for quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers on this board.

How does the first touchdown scorer market differ from anytime TD?

A first TD contract only pays out if the named player scores the very first touchdown of the game, by either team. A player who scores three touchdowns later in the game but not the opening one still resolves No on that specific contract, which is why first TD prices run so much lower than anytime prices for the same player.

How do I claim the promo and start trading?

Sign up through the links in this article, enter the promo code where prompted, and fund your account to start buying Yes or No contracts on tonight's board.

When do these contracts settle?

Both anytime and first TD contracts settle based on the official result of the Steelers-Browns game, shortly after the final whistle, once the box score is confirmed.

Why is Jaylen Warren the Editor's Pick, and what's the risk?

Warren leads both markets because Pittsburgh is without its presumed lead back, Rico Dowdle, for a second straight week. The risk is that these are still all-or-nothing contracts; a quiet night from the Steelers' offense, or a short-yardage score going to Kenneth Gainwell instead, would resolve the position No regardless of how the price looked beforehand.

Are there more touchdown markets available beyond this game?

Yes. Polymarket carries anytime and first TD markets, along with other player props, across every game on the Week 4 slate, not just Steelers-Browns.