The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) and Cleveland Browns (2-1) face off in the Week 4 edition of NFL Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Steelers are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 38.5 total points. Pittsburgh is a -148 favorite on the moneyline, while Cleveland is a +126 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs Browns predictions in my Thursday Night Football preview.
Steelers vs Browns Prediction
- Steelers vs Browns pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 20.5 Completions (-108; FanDuel)
My Steelers vs Browns best bet is a prop: Aaron Rodgers under 20.5 pass completions. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Browns Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
Steelers vs Browns Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Aaron Rodgers led the Steelers to a 30-27 win over the Bengals last week, which has left us with all four AFC North teams sitting at 2-1. From that perspective, we get a pretty fun one tonight with the winner taking sole possession of first place in the division.
The Steelers have leaned heavily on Rodgers through three games — with a +6% pass rate over expected — so they have legitimately been a pass-heavy offense even after adjusting for game situation. But their actual passing volume has been cranked up even further because they’ve trailed on 64% of their snaps and somehow played with the lead on just 5%.
I don’t expect that to continue.
Some of it has just been dumb luck. Against Cincinnati, Rodgers’ only interception came on a pass that Roman Wilson’s hands and ricocheted straight to Jordan Battle. The week before, Rodgers threw a screen pass to rookie Germie Bernard that popped into the air when Bernard got hit and turned into another pick.
We actually have interception luck included in my colleague Nick Giffen’s new Luck Dashboard, and Rodgers has definitely been on the wrong side of it so far. Even just getting normal interception luck going forward should help Pittsburgh avoid some of these trailing scripts.
And tonight feels like a good spot for the Steelers to finally get back to their roots a little bit and lean on the run.
Last week was actually the first game of Jaylen Warren’s 5+ year career where his main backfield partner missed a game due to injury, which is kind of wild.
Najee Harris played all 17 games in each of Warren’s first three seasons, Kenneth Gainwell played all 17 last year, and Rico Dowdle (ruled out tonight) had been essentially splitting the backfield with Warren over the first two games before missing Week 3 with a toe injury.
Warren played a career-high 90% of the snaps without Dowdle last week and went for 17/127/0 rushing + 3/49/0 receiving. I expect his playing time and usage to be just as dominant again tonight.
Pittsburgh also shuffled its offensive line last week, with Brock Hoffman moving to RG and first-round pick Max Iheanachor taking over at RT. Both played well — Iheanachor especially looked great as a run blocker.
Now the Steelers get a Cleveland defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run and has already allowed the second-most explosive runs (13).
I think there’s a very real chance we finally get the version of the Steelers offense people probably expected coming into the year: Rodgers still making the important throws, but not being asked to throw the ball 35+ times because Pittsburgh is chasing points all game.
When the Browns Have the Ball
Meanwhile, the Browns are somehow 2-1 and Deshaun Watson has now engineered a go-ahead or game-winning TD in back-to-back games. I don’t think many people had on their 2026 bingo card.
Watson entered the season with pretty low expectations and many assumed we'd be talking about Shedeur Sanders taking over at this point in the season. But when you’re above .500 and Watson is helping you win games, obviously you can’t just bench him because everyone assumed you eventually would.
And to be fair, he’s been better.
Watson ranks 20th out of 32 qualified QBs in EPA/dropback. He’s gotten some of the rushing juice back that we remember from his days with the Texans, and his supporting cast this season is much improved.
Rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have basically become his top WRs, pushing Jerry Jeudy down to No. 3. That’s a massive upgrade from what Cleveland was working with last year.
Now, do I think Watson is suddenly good again and we can all forget the last few years? Probably not.
He has just one interception despite six turnover-worthy plays, so he’s gotten away with quite a bit already. At some point I expect him to fold like a cheap suit again, and the Browns obviously know putting too much of the offense on his shoulders probably isn’t the ideal plan either.
The problem is the Browns' run game hasn’t given them another option.
Quinshon Judkins is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, and while the offensive line deserves plenty of blame, he’s averaging only 2.5 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks 35th out of 44 qualified backs.
Now he gets a Steelers defense with a 22% stuff rate, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
I think Cleveland has to keep trying to run it. You can’t just let Pittsburgh know Watson is dropping back every snap and allow that pass rush to tee off on him.
But we could get a lot of 2-3 yard Judkins runs that leave Cleveland in second-and-long or third-and-long, and those are exactly the situations where this offense can start getting itself into trouble.
Steelers vs Browns Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m basically in line with the market on this game. I have Pittsburgh around -2.5 and the total around 38.5. I can make a case for either side, and 38.5 certainly feels low, but ultimately both markets feel pretty close to coin flips for me.
So this is where I’d rather get into my specialty and attack the prop market.
I always try to stress that even though I specialize in props (juggling player projections for every team/player/stat seen in our prop tool, DFS models, and my fantasy projections takes a ton of my time), you still have to handicap the actual game first. It’s impossible to project player volume correctly without having some idea of what the game itself is going to look like.
Assuming -2.5 is roughly right, I have Pittsburgh projected to play with the lead on around 44% of its snaps tonight.
The Steelers have led on just 5% of their snaps this season. That’s nearly a 40-percentage-point increase in expected lead rate, which is an absolutely massive change in environment. It’s a big reason why I’m projecting Aaron Rodgers for around eight fewer pass attempts than his season average tonight.
And considering everything I laid out above with Jaylen Warren having the backfield essentially to himself, the offensive line looking better and Cleveland being vulnerable to explosive runs, I think the Steelers have a pretty good chance to actually let the run game do some damage here.
I knew I wanted to fade Rodgers’ passing volume. The question was whether I wanted his attempts or completions under, and that’s where Cleveland’s defensive style made the decision pretty easy.
The Browns are playing man coverage at the highest rate in the league and rank second in pressure rate.
Rodgers has completed 67% of his passes against zone this year compared to just 50% against man — a big reason for the drop is that he’s much more willing to push the ball downfield against man.
Same thing when he gets pressured.
From a clean pocket, Rodgers has completed 63% of his passes with a 6.9-yard aDOT. Under pressure, he’s completing just 47% while his aDOT jumps to 12.0 yards.
That’s the exact profile I want for a completions under.
Obviously, if he’s throwing farther downfield, those passes are naturally going to be completed at a lower rate. But the sneaky part is that when he does complete them, that can be just as helpful.
A 25-yard completion is one completion that moves Pittsburgh a quarter of the field. That’s way better for us than three separate 7-yard completions that accomplish roughly the same thing. It shortens the drive, creates scoring chances faster and potentially helps Pittsburgh build the exact lead that allows them to run the ball more.
So no, betting Rodgers Under 20.5 completions doesn’t mean I’m going to sit there tonight desperately hoping he goes 0-for-35. Sure, if he wants to go 0-for-35 I’m not going to complain — we can cash this thing before halftime and move on with our lives.
But realistically, we want his completions to count.
Rodgers opens the game with a 70-yard TD to DK Metcalf? Beautiful. One completion, drive over, Steelers up 7-0. Jaylen Warren rips off a 70-yard TD? Even better. Rodgers gets zero completions and now Pittsburgh has a lead.
Watson throws a pick-six? Incredible.
That’s why I always laugh a little when people say unders are boring because you’re “rooting for nothing to happen.” You’re not. You just have to know what you’re actually rooting for.
Tonight, we want Pittsburgh playing from ahead, Warren and the run game doing damage, Rodgers taking his shots downfield when he does throw, and Cleveland’s man-heavy defense/pass rush making him work for the underneath completions that can pile up quickly.
The obvious nightmare is Cleveland jumping out to a 10-0 lead and forcing Pittsburgh right back into the same trailing, pass-heavy environment it has lived in for most of the season. That can absolutely happen. But I think the chances of that game script are much lower tonight than what Rodgers has dealt with through three games.
I have him closer to 19.3 pass completions, with a 60% chance of staying under 20.5.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 20.5 Completions (-108; FanDuel)
