Steelers vs Browns Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Novig NFL TD Props Today (TNF Best Bets)

The Steelers and Browns meet for Thursday Night Football at Huntington Bank Field, and Novig has a touchdown scorer board loaded with value on both sides of this AFC North rivalry. Both teams enter at 2-1, and this is Cleveland's only prime-time appearance of the 2026 season, so the building will be loud for a game that already has a short week working against both rosters.

Jaylen Warren profiles as the clearest workhorse on the board with Rico Dowdle banged up, while Quinshon Judkins looks to build on a breakout Year 2 role for Cleveland. Harold Fannin Jr. is coming off a two-touchdown outing against Carolina, and DK Metcalf anchors a Pittsburgh passing game that has otherwise struggled to find the end zone through three weeks.

Below is a scannable board covering the 10 best-priced touchdown scorers for tonight's game on Novig, covering both the Anytime TD Yes market and the much longer First TD Yes market, followed by a full breakdown of each trade.

Sign up with Novig promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get $25 in Trade Credits!

A quick note on how these two Thursday Night Football prediction markets resolve differently. An Anytime TD Yes contract pays out if the named player scores at any point in the game, on any drive, in any quarter. A First TD Yes contract only pays out if that player scores the very first touchdown of the game, by either team. A player can score three touchdowns and still resolve No on his First TD contract if someone else got there first, which is exactly why the First TD prices below run so much lower than the Anytime prices for the same names.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction

Best Touchdown Prop Today – Jaylen Warren

Warren had the Steelers' backfield to himself in Week 3, rushing 17 times for 127 yards against Cincinnati while Rico Dowdle sat out with a toe injury that has lingered for two weeks. Dowdle doesn't appear on tonight's board at all, which is the clearest signal Novig's market is giving that Warren is in for another full workload on a short week.

The board has him at 49% (49¢), comfortably the shortest price on the entire slate, which reads fair for a back who is the only established option in a backfield that leans on him in the passing game as well as between the tackles.

A $100 buy at 49¢ works out to roughly 204 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution. That lines up closely with the $104.08 profit figure above, with any small gap down to order book depth and fees.

• If Warren finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $104.08 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.04x payout multiple on the board's clear favorite, a reasonable anchor position rather than a longshot swing.

Best Touchdown Bets Today – Quinshon Judkins

Judkins ran for 827 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie before a broken fibula ended his season early, and with Jerome Ford gone, Cleveland's backfield now runs through him exclusively. He scored the Browns' only touchdown of a Week 1 upset and has been the early-down and goal-line option all year.

At 41% (41¢) the board is pricing him as the clear second favorite on the slate, a touch light given he's the unquestioned lead back in an offense that found the end zone three times in last week's win over Carolina.

A $100 buy at 41¢ works out to roughly 244 shares, which tracks with the $143.90 profit figure listed above.

• If Judkins finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $143.90 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.44x payout multiple for a back who touches the ball on nearly every early-down snap Cleveland runs.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – DK Metcalf

Metcalf remains Pittsburgh's clear WR1 even as the Steelers' passing attack has sputtered, drawing nine targets in a Week 2 loss to New England and continuing to see a heavy share of Aaron Rodgers' looks regardless of the score.

The 30% (30¢) price reads about right for a big-bodied outside receiver who gets contested red zone targets but hasn't always converted them cleanly through three weeks.

A $100 buy at 30¢ works out to roughly 333 shares, consistent with the $233.33 profit figure shown above.

• If Metcalf finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $233.33 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 3.33x payout multiple on Pittsburgh's most established red zone target.

Best Touchdown Bets Today – Harold Fannin Jr.

Editor's Pick. Fannin Jr. caught a go-ahead touchdown and finished with two scores on seven catches in last week's 21-18 win over Carolina, and with David Njoku gone, he's Cleveland's unquestioned top target regardless of which quarterback is throwing him the ball.

At 25% (25¢) the board reads light for a tight end who was just the only Browns player other than Judkins to find the end zone and who commands a route on nearly every Deshaun Watson dropback.

A $100 buy at 25¢ works out to exactly 400 shares, matching the $300.00 profit figure listed above.

• If Fannin Jr. finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $300.00 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4x payout multiple on a tight end who has now scored in back-to-back games and faces no real target competition in Cleveland's red zone looks.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – KC Concepcion

The 24th overall pick out of Texas A&M, Concepcion has already moved past Jerry Jeudy on the Browns' depth chart and lines up all over Todd Monken's formation, including jet sweeps and returns that put the ball directly in his hands.

At 23% (23¢) the board treats him as a near-equal to Fannin Jr. as a scoring threat, which fits a rookie who sees snaps as a designed-touch weapon rather than purely a downfield receiver.

A $100 buy at 23¢ works out to roughly 435 shares, in line with the $334.78 profit figure above.

• If Concepcion finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $334.78 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.35x payout multiple on a rookie who touches the ball in more ways than a standard route-runner.

Best Touchdown Bets Today – Denzel Boston

Boston caught the two-point conversion in last week's win over Carolina, a small but telling detail about how much Cleveland's staff already trusts him near the goal line as a second-round rookie out of Washington.

At 22% (22¢) the price sits almost on top of Concepcion's, which reads fair given the two rookies have split snaps fairly evenly behind Fannin Jr. in the pecking order.

A $100 buy at 22¢ works out to roughly 455 shares, consistent with the $354.55 profit figure listed above.

• If Boston finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $354.55 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.55x payout multiple on a rookie who has already shown up in a scoring situation once this season.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman arrived from Indianapolis as Pittsburgh's No. 2 receiver and has dealt with foot issues that cost him a game, but he was back on the field in Week 3 and remains the clear complement to Metcalf when healthy.

At 21% (21¢) the market is pricing some uncertainty into his workload given the injury history, which is a fair discount rather than a sign he's being overlooked outright.

A $100 buy at 21¢ works out to roughly 476 shares, matching the $376.19 profit figure above.

• If Pittman finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.76x payout multiple that comes with some injury-related variance attached.

Best Touchdown Bets Today – Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has quietly been Pittsburgh's most efficient red zone target, catching nine of 10 looks for 78 yards and a touchdown across the first two games, a number that held up even with Metcalf and Pittman commanding coverage attention on the outside.

Priced identically to Pittman at 21% (21¢), the tie makes sense for a tight end who scores in a different way, mostly on shorter, high-percentage looks inside the 10.

A $100 buy at 21¢ works out to roughly 476 shares, matching the $376.19 profit figure listed above.

• If Freiermuth finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.76x payout multiple on the Steelers' most target-efficient red zone option through three weeks.

Best Touchdown Prop Today – Deshaun Watson

This contract is about Watson's legs, not his arm. He rushed 11 times for 45 yards and threw two touchdowns in last week's win over Carolina, and designed read-option keepers near the goal line remain part of Cleveland's plan when he's been on the field and healthy.

At 18% (18¢) the price reads reasonable for a quarterback who adds a rushing score roughly once every few games without being a primary runner.

A $100 buy at 18¢ works out to roughly 556 shares, consistent with the $455.56 profit figure above.

• If Watson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $455.56 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 5.56x payout multiple on a quarterback whose scrambling ability remains his most reliable scoring path.

Best Touchdown Bets Today – Roman Wilson

Wilson has seen his route count climb whenever Pittman has been sidelined, and new head coach Mike McCarthy has praised his offseason development as the Steelers look to get more out of their receiver room beyond Metcalf.

At 17% (17¢) the board slots him as a legitimate fourth scoring option, which fits a receiver still fighting for consistent snaps behind two established veterans.

A $100 buy at 17¢ works out to roughly 588 shares, matching the $488.24 profit figure listed above.

• If Wilson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $488.24 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Novig contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.88x payout multiple on a complementary piece whose role still depends partly on what happens ahead of him on the depth chart.

More touchdown scorer markets for tonight's game, including props for both kickers and longer-shot names on each roster, are live on Novig beyond the 10 players covered here.

Use Novig Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions Today

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Novig review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Novig to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get $25 in Trade Credits!

Disclaimer: Restrictions & requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions; void where prohibited. Must be 21+ to participate. Limit of one offer per user. Event contract trading involves risk & is not appropriate for all. Consider if it's appropriate for you in light of financial circumstances. See novig.com/terms for information.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme on this board is a Pittsburgh backfield that has collapsed to one healthy option. With Rico Dowdle absent entirely, Warren's 49¢ price is doing double duty as both the floor of the board and the clearest read of how Novig's traders expect tonight's game script to unfold.

On the Cleveland side, Harold Fannin Jr.'s 25¢ price looks soft relative to a player who just scored twice and remains the only established target in a receiver room still finding its feet. Judkins at 41¢ also undersells a back who now owns Cleveland's backfield outright.

Where the board gets more honest is at tight end and with the rookie receivers, Freiermuth, Pittman, Concepcion and Boston are bunched closely together in the low 20s, reflecting real uncertainty about which complementary piece finds the end zone on a given week rather than a clean mispricing.

Lineup news moves fast on a short week. Any change to Dowdle's or Pittman's availability between now and kickoff could reprice this board quickly, so it's worth checking the prediction market apps one more time before locking in a position.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

Tonight's board runs from a 2.04x multiple on Pittsburgh's clear workhorse all the way up to nearly 6x on complementary pieces at the bottom of the list, which is a wider spread than usual for a divisional game between two 2-1 teams.

The repeating theme is opportunity concentration. Warren and Judkins sit well clear of the field because both backfields have simplified down to one clear lead option, while everyone else on the board is competing for a smaller share of a crowded passing game.

Treat every contract here as an independent all-or-nothing position rather than a parlay, and size stakes across the slate accordingly rather than loading up on a single name.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Bets: Novig Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Novig promo code?

New users can sign up with promo code ACTION to deposit $10 and get $25 in Trade Credits, issued as five separate $5 credits.

What are the best touchdown bets on tonight's Steelers vs Browns board?

Jaylen Warren is the board's clear favorite at 49¢ given Pittsburgh's thin backfield, while Harold Fannin Jr. at 25¢ stands out as the best value play given his usage and recent two-touchdown performance.

Which player carries the highest implied probability to score?

Jaylen Warren leads the board at 49% implied probability (49¢) on the Anytime TD Yes market, with Quinshon Judkins next at 41%.

How do Novig Anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

An Anytime TD Yes contract resolves Yes if the named player scores a touchdown at any point in the game, in any quarter, on any type of play. It resolves No if that player fails to score, and the position pays out all-or-nothing based on the contract price.

How is a First TD contract different from an Anytime TD contract?

A First TD contract only pays out if the named player scores the very first touchdown of the entire game, by either team. A player can score multiple touchdowns later in the game and still resolve No on a First TD position if he wasn't the one who opened the scoring.

Why are First TD prices so much lower than Anytime TD prices for the same player?

Only one player in the entire game can score the first touchdown, compared to any number of players who can score at some point across four quarters, so the market prices First TD contracts as a much narrower path with a correspondingly larger payout multiple.

How do I claim the promo and start trading touchdown contracts?

Sign up on Novig with promo code ACTION, make a qualifying $10 deposit to unlock $25 in Trade Credits, then navigate to tonight's Steelers vs Browns matchup to take a position on any of the touchdown scorer markets above.

When do these contracts settle?

Touchdown scorer markets are graded on official NFL play-by-play data and settle shortly after the final whistle of tonight's game.

What is the Editor's Pick for tonight's board?

Harold Fannin Jr. at 25¢ (25% implied) stands out as the Editor's Pick. He just scored twice against Carolina and remains Cleveland's clear top target with David Njoku gone, which makes his price look light relative to Judkins and Warren at the top of the board.