Browns vs Steelers: Thursday Night Football Predictions, Picks (October 1)

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The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) and Cleveland Browns (2-1) face off in a Thursday night primetime matchup to commence NFL Week 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EDT from Huntington Bank Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will air live on Amazon Prime Video.

Both of these AFC North squads have two wins on the season. The Steelers are fresh off a division victory over the Bengals, while Cleveland has logged back-to-back wins against Carolina and Tampa Bay.

Let's get into my Browns vs. Steelers predictions and NFL pick for Thursday Night Football. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Browns vs Steelers Picks

PREDICTION

Kalshi's PIT Steelers vs CLE Browns market shows traders picking the Steelers to win 57% of the time.

TOTAL

Because of the defensive nature of Pittsburgh and Cleveland's rivalry, 51% of users predict that the game will not eclipse 38.5 points.

My Pick: Given the Browns' recent dominance at home against Pittsburgh — and the scrappy nature of this matchup — my pick is under 38.5.

• Steelers-Browns Prediction: Steelers (57%), Browns (43%)
• Steelers-Browns Total: Over/Under 38.5

NFL Thursday Night Football Predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers: Revamped Offense to Overcome Past Failure?

The black-and-gold have plenty of reasons for optimism entering Week 4. After New England popped the bubble on Pittsburgh's offensive aspirations in Foxborough, the Steelers bounced back with an attacking masterclass against the Bengals. The offense tallied 30 points, 411 total yards, and 22 first downs.

Aaron Rodgers hit four different receivers (including RB Jaylen Warren) for at least three receptions and 30 yards en route to a 292-yard, three touchdown, one interception outing. The offensive line opened rushing lanes everywhere, as Warren galloped to 176 scrimmage yards on the afternoon.

Defensively, the Steelers held the heralded Bengals offense to 27 points — enough to get the job done — and 84 rushing yards. Former first-round defensive lineman Derrick Harmon turned a game-tying drive for Cincinnati (already in field goal range) into a strip sack to ice the game with 0:53 on the clock.

However, late-game heroics and offensive improvements are not enough to erase recent history. Over the Steelers' past eight regular-season matchups in Cleveland, they have only managed a 1-6-1 record. Much has changed in the Browns organization over the past year — namely, the introduction of new head coach Todd Monken and the departure of two-time DPOY Myles Garrett.

Neither of these factors should make the Steelers feel better about their chances. Monken's short tenure has yielded two wins in three weeks (compared to the Browns' eight wins in Kevin Stefanski's final two years). Additionally, in those seven games where Cleveland defended its home stadium against Pittsburgh, Garrett logged only seven sacks, suggesting that Pittsburgh's inability to win was within its control, not Cleveland's.

Cleveland Browns: Success begets success?

Anyone who has closely followed AFC North football the past two years knows that the Browns have started a lot of quarterbacks since 2021. To be precise, Cleveland has leaned on 13 signal-callers from rookies to 18-year veterans. After a pair of wins from an offense led by Deshaun Watson, the search may be over.

Watson has tallied 587 passing yards in the first three games of the season and added 105 on the ground — nothing to write home about. However, he has not been an obstacle to Cleveland's success, throwing only one interception with an impressive 68.3 completion percentage. Rookie wide receiver Denzel Boston has begun to make a name for himself, with 195 yards on nine receptions this season. As Boston and Watson continue to build rapport, they could pose problems for a Steelers secondary that lost Joey Porter Jr.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland held both the Buccaneers and Panthers to under 20 points. Before Sunday, Bryce Young and crew had scored no fewer than 34 points a week. Browns defensive tackle Mason Graham is second in the country with four sacks, leading even Steeler All-Pro T.J. Watt (3.5).

I solidly believe that the Steelers are a better team than Cleveland. At the same time, this matchup reeks of a trap game where historical precedent and recent trends favor the underdog.

Despite Pittsburgh's offensive dominance on Sunday, a motivated Browns defense will not let this game get out of hand.

Pick: Under 38.5 points.