49ers vs Lions Parlay: +158 SGP for NFC Championship Game
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Aiyuk.
My strategy for NFC Championship game between the 49ers and Lions is to create a correlated same game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are three legs in total and I break down each one below. Same game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so check out our other coverage of tonight's game here.
Let’s build a 49ers vs Lions same game parlay for the NFC Championship game.
49ers vs Lions Parlay for NFC Championship Game (+158 via FanDuel):
- Brock Purdy O1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-192)
- Brandon Aiyuk 50+ Receiving Yards (-360)
- Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions (-240)
Brock Purdy O1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-192)
Lions vs 49ers | 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Entering the game as -7.5 favorites in Levi’s Stadium, Brock Purdy has seen favorable splits in touchdowns thrown depending on the ending outcome. In victories, Brock Purdy averages 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, throwing at least two in nine of his 13 wins this season.
The Lions are allowing the third most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season and allow a 29.4 rushing touchdown success percentage (sixth-lowest) in the endzone. Brock Purdy did not look his best last week versus the Packers but was playing in poor weather and without star weapon Deebo Samuels.
Recent quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield both found success throwing for two touchdowns against this secondary in the playoffs; look for Purdy to follow suit.
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Brandon Aiyuk 50+ Receiving Yards (-360)
Lions vs 49ers | 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Now, let’s get to Brock Purdy’s weapons. Brandon Aiyuk has been quiet in his last two starts but is still averaging 80.8 receiving yards this season, including in the playoffs. He’s gone over at least 50 receiving yards in 12 of these 17 contests.
The Lions deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate this season and Aiyuk grades as PFF’s fourth-best receiver in this scheme. Deebo Samuel is available, but Brandon Aiyuk is Brock Pudry’s favorite target in man coverage, dominating 28.0% as compared to 14.8% for Deebo Samuel.
Tonight should be a smash spot feasting against a beatable Lions secondary. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged 274.4 receiving yards per game to opposing wide and continue to get gashed by big-play alpha receivers – Justin Jefferson (141 yards), CeeDee Lamb (227 yards), Puka Nacua (181 yards), and Mike Evans (147 yards).
Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions (-240)
Lions vs 49ers | 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
The Lions invested heavily in Jahmyr Gibbs’ dual-threat ability with their No. 12 overall pick in the draft for games like tonight, and I expect his receiving game to be featured in this spot.
Jahmyr Gibbs averages 4.8 receptions in losses and just racked up back-to-back games of four receptions in his last two playoff games. He takes full command of long-distance-down and two-minute drill situations and should also see dump-off looks with Goff under pressure against a 49ers pass rush led by Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, & Chase Young.
The 49ers allow the seventh-most receptions per game (5.22) to opposing running backs, and books are currently pricing Gibbs's catches line at 3.5, so this is a discount worth grabbing.
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