The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) and New England Patriots (6-2) will meet in Week 9 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Patriots are 4.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Patriots -4.5), with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. New England is a -230 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +190 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Patriots predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, November 2.
Falcons vs Patriots Prediction, Picks
- Falcons vs Patriots pick: Falcons +4.5 (-110)
My Patriots vs. Falcons best bet is on Atlanta to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Patriots Odds for NFL Week 9
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots NFL Preview
This is the spot I had circled early in the week as a buy-low, sell-high.
The Patriots have been awesome. They've been on a run here with five straight wins, but the level of competition hasn't necessarily been great with win wins over the likes of the Saints, Browns, Titans and Panthers.
The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off one of the worst performances you will ever see for a home favorite.
The Falcons were 7-point home favorites last week with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, despite being without wide receiver Drake London and four defensive starters, and got destroyed 34-10 by the Dolphins.
It was an utterly pathetic effort — but when you see that happen, those teams are usually good bets the following week.
Here are some numbers to add context: Teams coming off a loss by more than two TDs as a touchdown-plus favorite, such as the Falcons, are 33-16-1 against the spread the following week (67%), covering by over a field goal per game.
When teams hit the road in this spot, again like the Falcons, they are 24-9-1 against the spread (72.7%). And as a road 'dog of over a field goal, 10-3-1 ATS.
We should get the Falcons' best effort here. They also look like they're trending better on the injury front as Michael Penix Jr. and London are expected to play today.
When most of the Falcons' defensive pieces are healthy, they have been able to generate pressure — that's what you need to do against Patriots QB Drake Maye.
Atlanta has done an outstanding job of taking away explosive passes, which is where Maye has excelled this year.
The Falcons rank second in the NFL in that department, which is important because Maye's deep ball has been absolutely pristine.
Maye looked great against Cleveland last week, but the Browns’ weakness has been giving up explosive passes, and their defense just isn't the same on the road.
Also, I still don't think the Patriots defense is all that great.
You can attack New England through the air, so the returns of Penix and London are big for the Falcons.
You can also attack New England’s linebackers and safeties.
That's where you could have Kyle Pitts or Bijan Robinson out of the backfield having pretty big days.
By the way, New England is 10-for-12 on fourth down, while their opponents are 3-for-11.
The Patriots have been a bit lucky in some other areas as well, so maybe some potential regression looms.
Now, some of Atlanta’s road performances do give me some pause, as well as the injury uncertainty, but I think we've reached the point where we've gotten too rich.
The Falcons are being disrespected in this spot after last week's showing.
Falcons vs Patriots Betting Predictions, Analysis
We should get a maximum effort out of Atlanta after how bad they played the past two games.
The Patriots have been lucky with injuries so far and this is the top of the market for them in general thus far.
Don't get me wrong, the Patriots have been great in their first season under head coach Mike Vrabel, but you can't overlook their strength of schedule.
According to Evan Abrams, the Patriots are on a five-game straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) win streak, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
Teams that are on a 4+ game SU/ATS win streak who didn’t make the playoffs the year prior are 15-27-1 ATS since 2018, including 2-15-1 ATS since 2022.
I’m buying low on the Falcons this week.
This spread was +6.5 earlier in the week, so I would shop around to see if there is a +6 still out there, but I'm still okay with betting down to +4.5.
Falcons vs Patriots Best Bet
- Falcons +4.5 (-110)
Falcons vs Patriots Betting Trends
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
