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There's no better feeling for an NFL team than a perfect start.
For all the analytics and win probability formulas and Luck Rankings, sports remain painfully binary in the end — you either win or you lose, and that's that.
Five teams have managed to win all three of their games so far: Bills, Chiefs, Raiders, Vikings, 49ers.
Don't expect all of them to make the playoffs.
Since the 1970 merger, 75% of 3-0 teams have gone on to make the playoffs. Since the league expanded to 32 teams, that number has dropped below 70%, and it's down to about 2-in-3 since 2013, with 45-of-66 making the playoffs.
That's probably not as high as you'd think! The odds say one, maybe two of these teams miss the playoffs.
Let's rank the playoff chances of the five unbeaten teams from safest to most vulnerable.
NFL 3-0 Team Rankings
Odds via bet365 (make playoffs/miss playoffs) and DraftKings (division)
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
- Make playoffs: -550
- Miss playoffs: +375
- Division odds: -160
We didn’t exactly learn a ton from the Chiefs crushing the Dolphins. Miami is terrible (ranking 32nd in both offense and defense), and Kansas City dominated them with a 54% to 32% success rate advantage — but when you zoom out and look at their overall body of work, the Chiefs are the safest 3-0 team on the board.
In Week 2, the Colts took them to overtime, but Kansas City's offense actually cruised. The Chiefs averaged 6.7 yards per play and outgained Indy by almost 200 yards. They also doubled up the Broncos in yardage and first downs in the opener, leaning heavily on Kenneth Walker.
Keep in mind, Denver has since beaten the Jaguars and Rams — teams that could easily meet in the Super Bowl — so that Week 1 win looks great in hindsight.
The Chiefs are doing all of this with Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL, integrating a new running back, a revamped offensive line, an entirely new offensive play style, and new cornerbacks. This team is real. They rank top six in DVOA on both offense and defense, and they are top 12 in both run and pass on both sides of the ball.
Up next, Kansas City gets the Raiders, a bye, and the Chargers. The Chiefs can take control of the division before things get tough on the road later in the year against the Bills, Rams, and Bengals.
If you wanted to fade the Chiefs, you missed your shot. If you want to buy them to win the Super Bowl (+1100) or Mahomes to win MVP (+900), you're probably too late for the best value.
Verdict: Real. You missed your shot to fade them for now.
2. Buffalo Bills
- Make playoffs: -1600
- Miss playoffs: +800
- Division odds: -340
The Bills-Chargers game was a classic chaotic mess. The Bills fumbled on the very first play, finished the game with five turnovers, and basically finished dead even with Los Angeles in yards and success rate. The difference? The Bills still won, and they still covered.
Josh Allen had one of those games where he made boneheaded mistakes, but he also saved the day with his legs and creativity. On a crucial fourth down while getting sacked, he managed to flip the ball out to Ty Johnson to move the chains. That is the exact type of game the Bills usually lose. Credit to an elite offense and coaching staff for pulling it out.
Even at 3-0, Buffalo has really only been great in one of three games — they absolutely demolished a tired, banged-up Lions team on a short week. Against Houston, the Texans actually outplayed them in success rate (48% to 41%), but Buffalo hit explosive plays and survived on a late dropped interception.
My biggest worry entering the season was the Bills' defense, and while it isn't elite (around 20th in most metrics), it isn't as troubling as I feared. Greg Rousseau has been awesome, and Deone Walker looks like a breakout defensive tackle.
When your offense is this good — top three in both run and pass, No. 1 in rush success rate, and No. 2 in offensive DVOA — you can live with an average defense.
Dalton Kincaid has been brilliant, and playing pass-heavier under Joe Brady has clearly helped.
The Bills survived a genuinely tough opening stretch. They host the Patriots this week as touchdown favorites. Win that, and they are effectively up 3.5 games in the division as October begins.
Verdict: Real. An offense this good makes the playoffs, but their average defense means they are always one Josh Allen injury away from peril.
3. San Francisco 49ers
- Make playoffs: -500
- Miss playoffs: +350
- Division odds: -105
The only offense that ranks ahead of the Bills so far? The 49ers.
By DVOA, this is one of the best 3-0 starts in NFL history. San Francisco ranks in the top quarter of the league in rushing and passing on both offense and defense.
But I am highly skeptical that this team is anywhere near this good long term. Are we positive San Francisco has really proven much?
Sure, the 49ers crushed the Rams and moved the ball at will (57% to 43% success rate), but that was a weird international game in Australia. The 49ers killed Miami, averaging over 10 yards per play on their first five drives, but again, that was Miami. The 49ers beat the Cardinals, averaging 8.7 yards per play, but the defense allowed a 52% success rate, stayed on the field for 39 minutes, and they only won by six points.
The offensive numbers are just unsustainably high. A 56% overall success rate is No. 1 in the league. The 49ers' 64% dropback success rate is a full 10% higher than the second-place team. They are posting 0.62 EPA per play on passing downs, which is almost three times higher than the No. 2 team. They are producing an EPA per play that is almost 50% better than Buffalo's.
Those are crazy, outlier metrics that have to regress. Plus, the 49ers haven't played a true road game yet, and their back half of the schedule is loaded with road trips.
The injuries are also stacking up fast. The receivers are down to Deebo Samuel and a bunch of question marks, Trent Williams is banged up, and the defensive line is decimated with Nick Bosa out indefinitely.
Verdict: House of cards. I am absolutely not buying high on San Francisco futures with this injury risk.
4. Minnesota Vikings
- Make playoffs: -280
- Miss playoffs: +210
- Division odds: +144
As a lifelong Vikings fan, I am thrilled they are 3-0. As a betting analyst, I can confidently tell you this team should probably be 1-2.
The Vikings were dominated by the Packers for three quarters before stealing a win in five crazy fourth-quarter minutes. Minnesota survived an ugly 9-3 rain game in Chicago where it managed just 11 first downs and a 35% success rate. Then, the Vikes squeaked by Tampa Bay with sub-250 yards for a third straight week, converting 2-of-15 third downs with an abysmal 24% success rate.
This Minnesota offense has been exceptionally rough. The Vikings' -244 yardage differential is the second worst by any 3-0 team in history (behind only the 2020 Seahawks, who actually managed to finish 12-4). They have the worst EPA per play of any 3-0 offense in the last decade.
Of course, Minnesota has been crushed by injuries: Kyler Murray (2 games), Justin Jefferson (1 game), Jordan Mason (2 games), and Jauan Jennings (1 game) have all missed time. Now the Vikings have also lost blocking tight end Josh Oliver, a crucial piece of their run scheme.
So, how is this team undefeated?
The defense and special teams have been outlier dominant. Brian Flores' defense is allowing an insane 31% success rate. They have allowed just one touchdown on nine opponent red-zone trips, operating at a -11% third-down conversion rate over expected.
Every defensive metric is a wild outlier, and defensive performance is notoriously less sticky than offense. It can't stay this good, and the offense can't stay this bad.
The problem with fading them right now is their schedule. The Vikings are 11.5-point home favorites against Miami this week. Then, they play against the Saints' shoddy offensive line that will struggle with Flores' blitzes, followed by a bye.
Verdict: Fraudulent. This is a team to fade in the futures market, but not yet. Wait until they are sitting pretty at 5-0 before stepping in front of them.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
- Make playoffs: +160
- Miss playoffs: -210
- Division odds: +520
Can you believe the Raiders are priced as a 50/50 coin flip to make the playoffs as we head into October? Enjoy it while you can, because it is not going to last.
The Raiders have proven very little. They are 3-0 against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints — teams that are a combined 1-8. Statistically, the Raiders played pretty close to dead-even ball with the Dolphins and Chargers, and they were actually outplayed by the Saints in yardage and success rate, needing four New Orleans turnovers to pull out a win.
Klint Kubiak's run game has been surprisingly terrible. The offensive line hasn't jelled, and they rank in the bottom five with a 31% rushing success rate despite playing poor run defenses.
The Raiders' defense looks improved (No. 8 DVOA) so far under Rob Leonard, but they have exclusively faced poor offensive lines. They aren't a top-10 defense; they just played bad teams.
And now, after a soft start to the schedule, the honeymoon is officially over.
Up next: the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. Las Vegas will likely be an underdog in all eight of those games, so a 1-7 or 2-6 stretch looks likely.
Once the losses pile up, Fernando Mendoza will likely step in at quarterback, which probably means even more losing.
I have the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills top six in my power ratings right now, no big surprise, and the Vikings top 10. The Raiders are still just 22nd, fringe bottom 10.
They're not a terrible team, but they're definitely not a good one either. I'll confidently fade them against the upcoming schedule.
The bet: Raiders Under 8.5 Wins (-115 Caesars)
Bonus: Brock Bowers Futures
While I am fading the Raiders overall, there's one piece of their team I definitely want to invest in: Brock Bowers.
Bowers returned from a meniscus procedure and immediately looked uncoverable against the Saints, logging 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets in his season debut. He is already TE17 in fantasy football despite missing the first two games.
Kubiak is building the entire offense around him. Last year in Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba commanded 36% of the targets and 44% of the yards under Kubiak. In Week 3, Bowers commanded 42% of the targets and 47% of the yards. He isn't even playing inline tight end; he's split out wide, destroying cornerbacks with a massive size advantage.
We can get creative in the prediction markets to buy Bowers stock despite his two-game absence.
The bets:
- Brock Bowers Top Fantasy TE: 11% on Kalshi. His biggest competition is Trey McBride, and Bowers is already halfway to McBride's point total with a two-game handicap.
- Brock Bowers Over 14 Fantasy PPG (PPR): 56% on Polymarket. He scored 27.6 points in his lone game. Even in an injury-plagued season last year, he averaged 14.7 PPG. This protects us if Bowers gets hurt again, as it relies purely on per-game averages.
Brandon Anderson's Picks Made in This Article
- Las Vegas Raiders Under 8.5 Wins: -115 (Caesars)
- Brock Bowers Top Fantasy TE: 11% (Kalshi)
- Brock Bowers Over 14 Fantasy PPG: 56% (Polymarket)
