Chargers vs Vikings Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 3

Chargers vs. Vikings odds are close to a pick'em, with Minnesota installed as a one-point favorite.

Kirk Cousins against the Chargers' porous pass defense might be one of the biggest mismatches of the NFL Week 3 Sunday slate. There are several props to consider as the stars are aligned for Cousins to have a monster game, but the one I'm smashing is the over on passing yards.

Let's preview the game and make a Chargers vs. Vikings pick.

The Chargers’ pass defense has been the worst in the league to start the season. In fact, it’s not even close. They’ve surrendered the most passing yards per game (333) and rank last in defensive DVOA and pass DVOA.

Quarterbacks have had their way with the Bolts, who are giving up 13.9 yards per completion and 9.7 yards per attempt.

Tua Tagovailoa torched them in Week 1, completing 28-of-45 passes (62%) for 466 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill picked the Chargers apart last week, completing 83% of his passes (20-of-24) for 246 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions.

It was quite the turnaround from a Week 1 performance against New Orleans in which Tannehill completed 47.1% of his passes (16-of-34) for 198 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions, which speaks volumes about the Chargers' struggles against the pass.

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Los Angeles must now contend with Cousins, who has been lights out to start the year. He ranks second in passing yards (708) — behind only Tagovailoa — averaging 354 yards per game.

Cousins' 11 completions of 20-plus yards are tied for the league lead, and he's in a great spot to add to that total against a Los Angeles secondary that gives up the most yards per catch in the league. Cousins also has the second-most air yards in the NFL (451) while the Chargers rank last in that area (487).

Meanwhile, the Vikings' wide receivers have a massive advantage over the Chargers' cornerbacks.  Los Angeles has given up 565 yards to wide receivers, which is 87 more than any other team. And Minnesota boasts one of the league's top tandems in Justin Jefferson and rookie phenom Jordan Addison. Both are capable of gaining chunk yards on any given play.

Like most Chargers games in the Justin Herbert era, this figures to be a shootout. It has the highest total of the week (by six points), so the expectation is that Cousins will air it out plenty for a full 60 minutes.

That shouldn't surprise anyone considering Minnesota's struggles on the ground. Through two weeks, the Vikings have run the ball a league-low 26 times for just 34.5 yards per game, and there's a good chance they'll abandon their rushing attack once again.

Backing running backs against the Chargers was money in the bank a year ago. This season, though, it appears backing quarterbacks against them might be a very profitable endeavor. That's especially the case in this spot.

I'm a believer in the Bolts and think there's sneaky-good value in them to make the playoffs and go on a deep run. To do that, they'll need to shore up their dumpster fire of a pass defense, and it's a stretch to think that'll happen this week. Add it all up and I'm looking forward to sitting back and relaxing as Cousins carves up the worst pass defense in the NFL.

The number on Cousins' passing yards varies wildly, with some books offering it as low as 284.5 and others as high as 293.5, so make sure you check around before placing your bet.

Additionally, you may want to consider betting him to go over 300.5 to pump up the payout.