Browns vs. Ravens Player Props: Value on Donovan Peoples-Jones

Donovan Peoples-Jones Longest Reception

Donovan Peoples-Jones, the third-year receiver out of Michigan has been the poster boy for long reception props this season. DPJ has a team-leading 11.97 average depth-of-target and has a 22-plus yard reception in eight of his nine games when he's had at least three receptions this season.
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Since acquiring stud linebacker Roquan Smith from the Bears, the Ravens' rush defense ranks first in Football Outsider's DVOA vs. the run.

On the other side, the team ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass. This pass-funnel defense will make it challenging for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to establish sustained drives, creating pass opportunities to move the chains.

It's no question Deshaun Watson has not looked like himself since returning, averaging 203.5 passing yards on a 59.4% completion rate. With another week of practice in the books, I expect to see better efficiency where he will need to throw to impact Peoples-Jones positively.

Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt hinted that we should see deep targets from Watson as he gets comfortable. Like anything, more reps lead to better results.

The Ravens' secondary has allowed a reception of 22 yards or more in 12 of its 13 games played this season. It ranks 30th in DVOA vs. deep passes, and more recently, it has allowed two or more 20-yard receptions in three of its last four.

Wide receivers average 12.90 yards per catch against the Ravens, which ranks 10th in the league.

In a game environment where it will be hard to establish runs, I expect at least three opportunities for Peoples-Jones to reel in a 22-yard completion. I love the chances of him going over this number today.

Pick: Donovan Peoples-Jones Longest Reception Over 21.5