Texans vs Broncos Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 13 Betting Pick

The latest Texans vs. Broncos odds for NFL Week 13 have Denver installed as three-point underdogs on the spread with a game total of 47 or 47.5 depending on the book.

The Broncos have turned their season around with five consecutive wins against teams squarely in the playoff picture. But even after a remarkable turnaround, their defense has yet to shake their 32nd ranking in DVOA. This has led to a deflated line on Sunday that has made the Texans spread a solid value play and my NFL pick.

Let's dive into my Denver-Houston preview and Texans vs. Broncos prediction for Week 13.

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Houston had won four straight home games until losing a hard-fought divisional battle last week to the Jaguars. The Texans averaged a healthy 6.1 yards per play, just above their season average of 5.8 yards per snap on offense. This unit is top five in both pass offense DVOA and total yards per play. If there's a weakness, it's rushing the ball — Houston is ranked 27th, according to DVOA.

With that said, Houston has shown a willingness to stick with the run if the opponent is exploitable. Against the Bengals and Cardinals in Weeks 10 and 11, lead back Devin Singletary rushed for 262 yards on 52 carries, averaging greater than five yards per carry. Arizona and Cincinnati rank as two of the four worst rushing defenses in the league according to DVOA, with the Broncos one of only two teams that rank even worse.

The narrative around the Broncos is that their defense has vastly improved, but according to Sharp Football, even if you were to remove their embarrassing 50-point drubbing in Miami, this rush defense still allows 5.3 yards per carry. The Broncos also surrender a league-high 79 yards per game coming by way of explosive runs. I expect the Texans offense will stay on schedule consistently throughout this game behind a heavy-dose of the ground attack.

The Broncos' lack of ability to stop the run will obviously benefit the comfortability of C.J. Stroud on third downs, as it is unlikely he will be faced with long down-and-distance situations. However, running the ball well on early downs doesn’t exactly translate to wins in today’s NFL; protecting the quarterback and creating explosive plays in the passing game does.

The Texans offense as a whole is the second-most explosive in the league, creating more than 15 gains of 10-plus yards per game, mostly behind a pass game that is third in yards per attempt.

Denver’s 7.5% adjusted sack rate (23rd) should provide ample time for Stroud to scan the field. Stroud’s passer rating when pressured is only 75.0, but when he is kept clean, his rating is a sparkling 112.0.

The way to attack the Texans defense is through the air. Yet, there is no evidence Sean Payton and the Broncos are willing to implement a pass-heavy game plan to exploit that.

Wilson has averaged only 26 passing attempts per game over his last six games. The formula for the Broncos over the last two months has been simple: run the ball, limit mistakes and shorten the game.

This formula is being highly overvalued in the market due to the Broncos being +11 in turnover margin since Week 6. Sure, Wilson has done well projecting the ball, but bounces and breaks have consistently gone Denver’s way during its winning streak.

Even during their winning streak, the Broncos offense faces third down at one of the five highest rates in the league.

Denver counts on winning on third down and the turnover battle. This is unsustainable, especially when considering the plethora of holes the Broncos defense has.

I will gladly side with the home team that boasts the superior defense and more explosive offense. Denver’s luck is about to run out.