How Green Bay Packers’ Power Rating, Super Bowl Odds, Win Total & More Dropped Following 2020 NFL Draft


Photo by NFL via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love listens on his headphones during the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft

To the surprise of many, the Green Bay Packers traded up in the first round in the 2020 NFL Draft to select quarterback Jordan Love at 26th overall, then followed with RB A.J. Dillon in the second round (62nd overall).

Green Bay already has future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center, and considering the team advanced to the NFC Championship Game last year after a 13-3 regular season, not taking a player who can help right now is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Still, mainstream sports media is no stranger to overreaction in the rush to grade each team’s draft before any of these players actually play a down.

However, in this instance, the pundits may be correct.

According to The Action Network’s updated NFL simulations, the Packers’ power rating actually dropped following the draft. That’s typically unlikely except for unique circumstances like a team moving a key player in order to get younger and rebuild through the draft — the Packers did not do that.

Here’s a look at how the Packers’ power rating for the 2020-21 NFL season changed, as well as the results of our simulations from before and after the draft.

Green Bay Packers 2020-21 Power Rating Ranking

Before draft: 10th-ranked team
After draft: 13th-ranked team

Travis Reed, the gatekeeper of our NFL simulations, explained that first- and second-round selections are the two most valuable picks in an NFL Draft, and the Packers used that capital to select players who project to be backups this season, therefore failing to upgrade at needy positions — or frankly anywhere on the roster.

Green Bay Packers 2020-21 Season Projections

Green Bay Packers Chances to Win Super Bowl 55

  • Before draft: 2%
  • After draft: 1.8%

Green Bay Packers Chances to Win NFC

  • Before draft: 5.5%
  • After draft: 4.8%

Green Bay Packers Chances to Win NFC North

  • Before draft: 30.2%
  • After draft: 27.6%

Green Bay Packers Chances to Make the Playoffs

  • Before draft: 48.9%
  • After draft: 44.9%

Green Bay Packers Over/Under Win Total

  • Before draft: 8.35 wins
  • After draft: 8.19 wins

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