The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams face off in NFL Week 1 on Sunday, September 7. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. Texans vs Rams will broadcast live on CBS.
The Rams are 3-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Rams -3), with the over/under set at 43.5. Los Angeles is a -165 moneyline favorite to win outright while Houston is +140.
Let's get into my Texans vs Rams predictions and NFL picks for Sunday afternoon.
Texans vs Rams Prediction
- Texans vs Rams pick: Texans First Half Spread +2.5 (-120)
My Rams vs. Texans best bet is on Houston to cover the first half spread, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Rams Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Texans vs Rams NFL Week 1 Preview
The Rams started slow last season (1-4) — this has become a pattern for them, partly because of injuries.
Matthew Stafford is reportedly ready to go for Week 1, but he didn't play at all in the preseason due to a back injury. He barely practiced and didn't even play in any of the Rams' scrimmages. That said, he's not on the Rams' injury report in the lead-up to this game.
Stafford's injury has also overshadowed the absence of left tackle Alaric Jackson (blood clots), who is the best player on the Rams' line.
That's a huge loss for the Rams with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter of the Texans bearing down on Stafford, whose performance often directly reflects his line play.
The Texans' defense may be the best in the league (I ranked them as the best in the league), and is by far the best unit on the field. Meanwhile, the Rams defense (which I ranked 19th) is the worst unit.
The Rams' offense is so much about precision, rhythm and repetition under head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles just hasn't had a chance to do that in the preseason.
Texans vs Rams Prediction, Betting Analysis
Why just a first-half play?
I'm somewhat concerned about Houston's new offense under OC Nick Caley, especially the terrible offensive line against this Rams' defensive front. While I ranked the Texans defense first in my rankings, I ranked their offensive line 32nd.
I'm also concerned about Houston's second-half effort. The Texans were an awful 4-13 ATS in the second half last season; they were an awesome 13-4 in the first half.
Playing the first-half spread also gives us a chance to specifically attack potentially rusty play from Matthew Stafford.
According to Raheem Palmer, teams whose quarterback didn't play in the preseason are an ugly 3-12 ATS in the first half of their Week 1 games over the last two seasons.
Give me the Texans to cover the first half spread at -2.5, and you are welcome to sprinkle the first half moneyline at +125 if you like. If you trust the Texans to finish the job, a Texans halftime/full-time parlay pays out +240.
Texans vs Rams Picks:
- Texans 1H +2.5 (-120)
- Texans 1H ML (+125)
- Texans Halftime/Full-Time Moneyline Parlay (+240; Fanatics)
Spread
My Rams vs. Texans betting prediction is on Houston to cover the first half spread at +2.5.
Moneyline
If you trust the Texans, I don't mind a Texans halftime/full-time moneyline parlay.
Over/Under
I will also be staying away from the total.
