Titans vs. Lions Odds & Picks: How Matthew Stafford’s Status Impacts This Spread
Leon Halip/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford
Titans vs. Lions Odds
After a close battle against the division-leading Green Bay Packers in which they lost, 31-24, the Detroit Lions (5-8) find themselves in last place in the NFC North heading into their Week 15 bout with the Tennessee Titans (9-4).
The Titans, meanwhile, find themselves in first place in the AFC South and tied with the Colts with a 9-4 record. The Titans will need a home victory on Sunday to maintain pace and keep their edge in the division.
Matthew Stafford is questionable, but according to a Saturday report from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the quarterback is preparing to play. If he can rally, will he and the Lions be able to keep up with a powerful Titans offense?
Detroit Lions
If Stafford does go, he'll have to face the Titans without wide receiver Kenny Golladay (hip), who was ruled out and is in danger of being shut down for the season.
That said, Marvin Jones will assume the role of the team’s top wide receiver in Golladay's absence, and Stafford would have a strong matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 28th against the pass according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
If Stafford is limited, running backs De'Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson could be asked to carry a heavier load. They’ll face a Titans rush defense that's been middling at best, ranking 18th with a 59.1 rush defense grade by Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Tennessee Titans
Limited reps in practice are part of wide receiver A.J. Brown's weekly routine, but he's expected to be a full-go. Also expected to play is cornerback Kristian Fulton (knee), who the Titans activated from injured reserve on Monday.
Derrick Henry now has four games with 100 or more rushing yards over his past five, including a monster 215-yard effort last week against the Jaguars. If Henry can average 156 rushing yards over his final three games, he’ll have enough yards to pass Eric Dickerson for the all-time single-season rushing record.
Henry sets up well against a Lions defense with a 26th ranking in rush DVOA and 30th ranking in PFF's tackling grades. They also rank dead last in weighted DVOA, which weights recent games.
Now with the Titans positioned as 10-point favorites, it’s safe to assume that we’ll see a lot of Henry in this one.
Ryan Tannehill also has a strong matchup against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. He's picked things up over the past two weeks, averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air to go along with a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over that span.
His top weapons through the air — Brown and Corey Davis — also have strong matchups against their primary defenders. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Brown has a 38% advantage over Daryl Roberts while Davis has a 16% advantage when matched up against Amani Oruwariye.
Lions-Titans Pick
The Titans opened as 8.5-point favorites, then the line steadily crept up throughout the week as the uncertainty around Stafford’s availability grew, reaching as high as 11.5 at one point. Now it sits between 8.5 and 10 in the wake of reports that he's expected to play.
The Lions' ability to keep this game close is tied directly to Stafford, but even if he is active, it’s tough say how effective he’ll be considering he's dealing with a rib cartilage injury. That makes this a risky game to bet, so I'm staying away.
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