Let's talk about Most Valuable Player (MVP). We have made predictions for all the major NFL awards over the last few weeks, but today we finally get to the big one.
Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP, and I was thrilled to cash that 50-1 long-shot ticket last year. Before him, we saw a lot of familiar names taking home the trophy.
In reverse order: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers twice, Jackson, and Mahomes again. I am sensing a theme here, and you should be too.
Before we get to this year's NFL MVP predictions, we need to establish a historical profile.
What exactly are we looking for in an NFL MVP? I have six rules for betting this market.
NFL MVP Predictions
NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11% |
| Joe Burrow | 10% |
| Lamar Jackson | 10% |
| Justin Herbert | 9% |
| Caleb Williams | 7% |
| Drake Maye | 7% |
| Dak Prescott | 7% |
| Matthew Stafford | 7% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7% |
| Jordan Love | 5% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 4.
Who Wins NFL MVP?
1. Quarterbacks Win MVP
Eighteen of our last 19 MVPs have been quarterbacks. This dates all the way back to 2007, which was the year after Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson broke the rushing touchdown record in consecutive seasons.
The only non-quarterback to win since then was Adrian Peterson when he nearly broke the all-time rushing record.
This is a quarterback award. I will not even consider any other position today.
2. We Love Repeat Winners … But Not Back-to-Back
Fourteen of the last 19 MVPs went to just five guys. That is a 74% win rate for Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady.
If you go back even further, 24 of the last 37 MVPs went to the same nine Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The average MVP is 30 years old because aging stars keep winning.
However, only five players have ever won back-to-back MVP awards, and Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are the only two to do it this century.
It is very unlikely for a player to repeat in consecutive years. That is bad news for Matthew Stafford.
3. We Need Serious Statistical Production
The average quarterback during this 18-year stretch posted 4,370 passing yards, 40.4 touchdowns, and 8.1 interceptions. Adjusted for a 17-game pace, we are looking for around 4,600 yards and 43 touchdowns.
You need massive stats. Notably, 12 of the last 18 winners hit a complete outlier touchdown rate during their winning season — a good way to spike your stats and catch voters attention.
4. We Need a Big-Time Winner
This is an individual award, but it's a team accomplishment.
Our 18 quarterback MVPs went 239-54 for an 82% win rate. That is essentially a 14-win pace!
Thirteen of those 18 winners claimed the No. 1 seed, and only two won the award from outside the top-two seeds.
You have to win games — a whole lot of games.
5. Long Shots Dominate (Unless You're Elite)
Matthew Stafford opened at 50-1 last year. Eight of our last 11 MVPs started the season at +1100 or longer. The only exceptions were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady.
If you are betting someone at 10-1 or shorter, they better be a surefire, best-of-the-best quarterback. Beware of short prices on unproven guys.
6. Advanced Metrics Are Predictive In-Season
Fifteen of the last 18 quarterback MVPs finished in the top two in EPA per play. Eight of the last 13 were No. 1.
History says EPA is a great in-season MVP predictor to monitor once we get regular season numbers.
So what are we looking for in an MVP winner?
We need a quarterback capable of a 13-win season and a serious run at the No. 1 seed, and they need to have a real shot at 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns.
I have narrowed the field down to 19 MVP candidates. We'll go through them in reverse order, breaking them down into tiers from least likely to most likely to win.
You're Welcome For Including Your Name
At a 1% implied probability, I am telling you these guys effectively do not have a chance — or at least should be 100-to-1 type odds.
Bo Nix, Broncos (+3500, DraftKings)
Nix led the league in pass attempts and had seven game-winning drives last year, but that is exactly why the Broncos are a massive regression candidate.
Denver's schedule is also brutal through the first six games of the season.
C.J. Stroud, Texans (+6000, Caesars)
Stroud has an elite Houston defense backing him up, but he has nowhere near the stats we need.
His career high is 23 passing touchdowns and he barely cracks the top 20 in EPA.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles (+3500, Caesars)
Hurts will get his rushing touchdowns, but he has never thrown for 4,000 yards or over 25 passing touchdowns in a season.
His rushing volume is fading, A.J. Brown is gone, and the offensive line is aging.
Why would you want to invest in Hurts this year?
Even If You're Ready, Your Team Isn't Yet
Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+2500, BetMGM)
These two guys always end up getting paired together.
I probably would have put Daniels in the top five on my MVP ballot as a rookie, but the situation around him is terrible this year.
Daniels has already lost Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, he is in an unknown offense, and the Washington defense stinks.
Remember, this is a team accomplishment. Even if these two are ready for MVP-level ball, their teams aren't ready with them.
Caleb Williams, Bears (+1700, FanDuel)
Caleb Williams has plenty of hype after his playoff highlight plays, but he still needs to eat his vegetables.
He's barely top-25 in EPA per play for his career and has yet to hit 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns.
The Bears are run-heavy, their defense is suspect, and Ben Johnson will likely get the credit if the offense pops. It is just too tough for these teams to reach 13 or 14 wins this season.
No Way, Not At That Price, Not Right Now
Justin Herbert, Chargers (+1000, FanDuel)
Justin Herbert is the single worst MVP bet on the board entering the new season.
Listing Herbert top five in MVP odds right now is pure wish-casting. He has no interior offensive line, and he's taking snaps from a rookie center and playing in a totally unknown system. He hasn't hit 4,000 yards in three years or 30 passing touchdowns in four years.
Throw in a brutal schedule featuring Buffalo, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston, and Baltimore early on, and I am out at anything near this price entering the season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+2500, DraftKings)
Lawrence looked great over his final seven games last year, pacing for 4,500 yards and 54 total touchdowns in that stretch. But that came against a cupcake schedule and then some.
I see tons of regression signals for Jacksonville. The Jags have a bottom-three offensive line, and they play a brutal opening stretch including two home games lost to London.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (+1400, DraftKings)
I did not even believe my own Matthew Stafford case last year. My wallet is happy I was wrong, but MVPs do not go back-to-back.
Stafford had an outlier year where his touchdown rate spiked to 7.7% from 4.0% over the previous three years.
The Rams are so good that he does not even have to play like an MVP for them to win games.
Add in sky-high expectations and a tough opening schedule featuring an Australia trip, and this is an easy pass at 14-1.
Jordan Love, Packers (+2200, BetMGM)
By all the metrics, Jordan Love should be in MVP contention.
But reputation matters, and he has never received a vote for any award in his career.
The ecosystem in Green Bay is awful right now with a bottom-five offensive line and no Josh Jacobs indefinitely. If Love is so important that he has to carry this team, the Packers will not win enough games for him to claim the trophy.
Almost Certainly Not, But These Odds Are Too Long
You are not placing these tickets expecting them to win. You are playing them hoping they drop to 12-1 or 15-1 so you can hedge or buy out and secure a profit.
Daniel Jones, Colts (+15000, FanDuel)
Daniel Jones accidentally made his own MVP case already last year.
He had the Colts at 7-1 and was pacing for 4,400 yards and 37 touchdowns, but the Colts went 1-3 as he struggled through injury, then finished 0-5 and missed the playoffs without him.
Looks pretty valuable!
Jones has a great injury return narrative, but his brutal opening schedule is too difficult to bet right now when we haven't even seen him on the field post-Achilles injury.
Kyler Murray, Vikings (+5000, BetRivers)
Murray has never hit our statistical benchmarks and only has one healthy season in his last five. But he has never been in an ecosystem as strong as Minnesota's.
The Vikings have a fringe top-10 offensive line, top-five weapons, and Kevin O'Connell calling plays.
Murray did have one season where he was an MVP favorite at the midpoint before getting hurt, so there's proof of concept here.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (+5000, Caesars)
Mayfield is my favorite of these three.
I am sneaky into the Bucs. They have a soft NFC South schedule and could easily be in the mix for the 1-seed if things bounce right.
Mayfield actually received MVP votes two years ago. I trust his team the most of these three to elevate him to MVP relevance.
These three are really unlikely to win MVP, but we've seen Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy get into the MVP conversation leading NFC teams to the top of the standings.
Not all tickets have to cash to be valuable.
I'm Telling You, They Could Really Win This Thing
Brock Purdy, 49ers (+2000, Caesars)
Purdy has already finished fourth in MVP voting previously.
He's boasted a massive 7% touchdown rate in all but one season of his career, meaning he could easily spike to 40+ passing touchdowns with volume.
Purdy could also get a narrative boost if San Francisco legacy guys like Trent Williams, Mike Evans, or Christian McCaffrey miss time and he's the glue holding the team together.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+1400, BetMGM)
Prescott feels like the most likely NFC MVP candidate.
He ranks top four in EPA per play over the last three years, and his stats will almost certainly be good enough.
The problem is a brutal schedule and a lot of media eyeballs waiting for him to mess up on national television.
I am mostly fine with the price tags on Dak and Purdy, but better plays are available.
Can Always Win It, But Clear No Bets Right Now
Drake Maye, Patriots (+1100, BetMGM)
Maye led many of the metrics for a 14-win team last year and probably should have won MVP — he would've had my vote.
Now this year, the Patriots have upgraded his WR group by adding A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs.
But growth is not linear. History says to expect a step back, not a step forward.
Maye led the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt last year, and his 6.3% touchdown rate is likely a spike that will regress.
I project New England for around 10 wins, making it hard to invest at 11-1 right now.
Josh Allen, Bills (+650, Caesars)
We know Josh Allen can win this, and he is arguably the most valuable player to his actual team in the league.
But Allen's stats have sneakily fallen off under Joe Brady. He is down 100 pass attempts a year and has thrown under 30 passing touchdowns in three straight seasons.
But the main problem here is that I simply do not buy the Bills roster. They lack passing weapons, they are too run-heavy, and I have a ton of questions about the defense and the new coaching staff.
Add in a brutal opening schedule, and there's just no way you need this ticket right now as a favorite.
This is a marathon, not a sprint. There will be chances to add Allen later in a better spot.
Joe Burrow, Bengals (+1000, FanDuel)
This is the highest I have ever ranked Joe Burrow in the MVP race.
I believe in the improvements Cincinnati made to their offensive line and coaching scheme, and the run game and defense are trending up. Maybe, just maybe, the Bengals are finally good enough to help Burrow contend for MVP.
A healthy Burrow hits 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns easily.
The problem is that the third-favorite price tag already bakes all of that optimism into the number.
I cannot buy Burrow at 10-1 right now, especially with a tough opening four weeks and Burrow's tendency to start the season slow.
But that schedule softens up in a huge way in November, and I'll be eyeing Burrow as a possible midseason addition to my portfolio.
Sometimes the Boring Answer is the Right One
Yes, we really are right back to the same boring dudes that win this award every year.
Voters love repeat MVPs. 14 of the last 19 trophies went to the same five guys, and Jackson and Mahomes are the only two still playing real football (sorry, Aaron Rodgers).
Everyone wants the sexy long-shot ticket — I want winners.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+1100, FanDuel)
This is an incredible buy-low opportunity on both guys. Jackson was +550 last year. We are getting exactly double that price now.
Jackson has played four fully healthy seasons in the NFL. He won MVP in two of them and was the runner-up in another, and many thought he should've won.
If Jackson stays healthy, history says he is a coin flip to win the award — or better. Even if you think he only has a 50% chance to stay healthy, that still implies a 25% chance to win MVP.
Last year was a down-season for Jackson, but just about all of his struggles and off numbers can be directly explained by the leg injuries. He could not move or scramble.
Baltimore is a strong positive regression candidate with an improving offensive line, a healthier defense, and a soft opening schedule, a team I think could be as good as any in the league, and the Ravens have a super easy opening schedule.
Lamar is an easy bet at +1100 here.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+1700, FanDuel)
Then we have Patrick Mahomes.
Betting is all about pricing, and we are going to look back in shock that we could bet the best quarterback of this era outside the top-five MVP favorites.
Mahomes is literally tied for 11th in odds at some sportsbooks right next to Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy! That is downright insulting.
Yes, Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL. Yes, his numbers have dipped the past three years.
But look at what went wrong over the three years: his receivers failed, his offensive line regressed, the run game vanished, and Matt Nagy's schemes struggled.
Three of those four things have now been addressed. The offensive line has climbing back into the top 10, Kenneth Walker brings explosives to the run game, and Nagy is out for Eric Bieniemy, under whom Mahomes had the best five-year stretch of any QB in NFL history.
The Chiefs are an obvious positive regression team.
They went 1-9 in one-score games last year, but before that, Mahomes was 43-17 in one-score games. When he gets back to his usual standard, that's a lot of extra wins — wins Mahomes will get direct credit for with late pushes.
Per Bill Barnwell, 117 teams since 1990 have finished between +3 and +5 points per game in scoring margin. Last year's Chiefs had the worst record of all 117 teams at 6-11.
The best record on that list? The 15-2 Chiefs from the year prior. Qualitatively, those two teams were identical. We are just getting a big discount on this year's version because of the 6-11 record.
Oh, you want MVP narrative?
Mahomes returns from a torn ACL and a missed playoffs, the first serious adversity in his career. He has to do it all himself with no real weapons, and he only has two MVPs so far. The case will practically write itself.
I have Mahomes and Lamar both projected with at least a 20% chance to win, which translates to +400 odds or shorter. But we can bet them both together for a combined +620 implied price — shorter than one Josh Allen ticket!
Let everyone else talk themselves into Burrow, Herbert, and Dak at short numbers. I'll gladly take the two actual most valuable players in the league at insultingly discounted prices.
Anderson's NFL MVP Picks
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+1100, FanDuel) | 1u
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+1700, FanDuel) | 1u
