Ravens vs. Bears Odds, Predictions, Picks: The Key To Chicago Covering This Week 11 NFL Spread
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.
- In search of the latest Ravens vs. Bears odds? You'll find the spread and over/under in our betting preview for this Week 11 NFL matchup below.
- With Justin Fields' home splits notably more favorable than his road splits, our analyst makes the case for betting Chicago to cover this Sunday.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Week 10 was supposed to be somewhat of a homecoming for Lamar Jackson. It was his second time facing the Dolphins in Miami, with plenty of friends and family expected in attendance.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan as the Ravens struggled mightily offensively, converting just two of 14 third-down opportunities en route to a 22-10 loss on Thursday Night Football.
Baltimore might also have a few worries regarding Jackson’s status for this game. After all, he did miss Wednesday and Thursday’s practice due to an undisclosed illness. That bit of uncertainty might be just enough to allow the Bears to hang around in this game.
Furthermore, you might think Week 11 against the Bears would be a good spot for them to bounce back. However, this situational spot hasn’t always favored the Ravens under head coach John Harbaugh.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Ravens vs. Bears Injury Report
- WR Miles Boykin (finger): Out
- DT Brandon Williams (shoulder): Out
- LB Pernell McPhee (knee): Out
- WR Marquise Brown (thigh): Questionable
- WR Devin Duvernay (knee): Questionable
- OL Patrick Mekari (ankle): Questionable
- CB Jimmy Smith (hip): Questionable
- RB Latavius Murray (Ankle): Questionable
- CB Tavon Young (foot): Questionable
- CB Anthony Averett CB (thigh): Questionable
- OT Cedric Ogbuehi (thigh): Questionable
- ILB Kristian Welch (foot): Questionable
- DL Akiem Hicks (ankle): Out
- RB Damien Williams (knee/calf): Doubtful
- WR Allen Robinson (hamstring): Doubtful
- DB Eddie Jackson (hamstring): Questionable
- OL Elijah Wilkinson (back): Questionable
Ravens vs. Bears Matchup
|Ravens Offense||DVOA Rank||Bears Defense|
|Ravens Defense||DVOA Rank||Bears Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Ravens Coming Off Shocking Defeat
At 6-3, one could say Baltimore exceeded its expectations despite having multiple injuries at the running back position and in their secondary to start the season. It certainly hasn’t been an easy journey given that the Ravens already played three overtime games this season, and you could argue they were fortunate to go 2-1 straight-up (SU) in that spot.
Ironically, Thursday’s game against Miami was the first time Baltimore lost after playing an overtime game the previous week. That’s something I haven’t heard anyone talk about because their opponent was a 2-7 Dolphins team that was starting a backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissett.
Perhaps one can understand Baltimore not covering the spread as an 8.5-point favorite, but losing the game outright was certainly a surprise. However, it’s challenging to win a game even against the Dolphins when you convert 14% of your third-down opportunities and finish -2 in turnover margin.
The Ravens will need to put forth a collective response against the Bears because they can’t just sit around and wait for Jackson to bail them out each week. In his last three games, he’s failed to register a Total QBR greater than 47.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m still high on the Ravens over the long haul, but I don’t think they can throw their helmets out onto the field as if that’s sufficient to beat even the lesser teams.
While Jackson has looked much better throwing the football this season, the Ravens need to get back to their bread and butter, which is running the football.
Baltimore is 3-1 this season when it rushes for at least 140 yards. However, the problem is that Jackson (639 rushing yards) leads the team in rushing by 400 yards. If the Ravens want him to finish the season, they can’t keep exposing their franchise quarterback to that many hits. Someone else in the Ravens running back group needs to step up and carry the load.
Bears, Fields Thrive on Home Soil
Bears fans are starting to see some glimpses of why they selected Justin Fields 11th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, the Bears need to think more about his potential to look past recent performances, given that they’re currently on a four-game losing streak. The good news is that the last two games have been much better for Fields, as he managed to finish with a Total QBR of at least 55 in each.
In Week 10, Fields set a new career high by throwing for 291 yards. It was a decent effort on the road against a Steelers defense that ranked 14th in Football Outsiders‘ defensive DVOA.
On Sunday, Fields should feel even more comfortable at Soldier Field, considering the Bears are 2-2 at home vs. 1-4 on the road. He has a higher yards-per-pass average (7.4 vs. 6.4), completion percentage (61.9% vs. 57.3%), and quarterback rating (72.4 vs. 67.0) at home compared to on the road.
To ensure their young quarterback’s development, the Bears will continue to play balanced football on offense. That’s why Chicago has the highest run percentage in the league at 49.63%. The Bears’ commitment to the run is why they’re averaging 136.6 rushing yards per game, ranking them fifth in the league.
The Bears are also seventh in yards per carrying (4.6), which suggests that a good portion of their running plays are productive. Per Sharp Football Stats, Chicago has a 49% run success rate, equal to that of the Cowboys.
If you like that kind of thing, then this is a game you won’t want to miss, given Chicago’s rushing attack and Baltimore’s run defense are the strength of both of their units.
NFL Pick: Ravens vs. Bears
Baltimore has been dealing with a ton of injuries since the start of the season, and is already playing without quite a few starters. The more significant concern might be Jackson, who, despite being a full participant in Friday’s practice, missed the previous two days with a non-COVID illness.
As for Chicago, while the statuses of Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack are undoubtedly concerning, both players have already missed multiple games this season. Losing Robinson certainly isn’t optimal either, but Marquise Goodwin is a capable option with 24 targets on the year and 14.4 yards per catch.
You could make the argument that Baltimore has been fortunate to win six of its nine games this season. No team has won as many games as the Ravens while struggling as much as they do on third down. Even Chicago’s third-down conversion rate of 34.58% is higher than Baltimore’s (34.21%).
It’s worth considering whether the Ravens are just a team that plays down to their opponent. Baltimore is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season against teams that have a .500 or worse record. Chicago is another sub .500 team, and during Jackson’s tenure, Baltimore is just 10-11 ATS as a favorite when facing a team below .500. Furthermore, Baltimore’s failed to cover its last four games in this situational spot.
Even if you’re banking on the Ravens to bounce back from a loss, under Harbaugh as a favorite of at least six points, they’re 4-14-1 ATS for a loss of 10.08 units. Based on that criteria, they’re also 0-5 ATS mark coming into this game.
This point spread has already moved up to 6.5, likely in response to the injury report and Jackson returning to practice. I, for one, hope it gets to seven or higher so I can swoop in and play the Bears at that price. But if it stays at +6.5, I’ll grab some insurance at DraftKings by buying the half-point up to +7 at -130 odds.
Pick: Bears +7 (-130) | Bet to: +6.5
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