The 2025 NFL season kicks off in style, as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles square off in a primetime NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football. These two rivals enter the year with plenty of star power and storylines, making for a must-watch NFL opener.
With bragging rights and momentum on the line, let's get into my NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays for Cowboys vs. Eagles tonight, featuring Jalen Hurts, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert and Javonte Williams in what promises to be a hard-fought start to the season.
NFL PrizePicks, Underdog Plays for Thursday, September 4
Jalen Hurts
Less Than 8.5 Rushing Attempts
Jalen Hurts' mobility has been a big part of the Eagles' success, whether it's scrambling from the pocket or spearheading the "Tush Push."
However, the reigning Super Bowl champions have a tough schedule this season, and if they want to have a chance of repeating as champions, Hurts will need to stay healthy throughout the year.
With that in mind, we are likely to see the Eagles be a bit more conservative with Hurts' rushing attempts in this season opener.
Last year, Hurts ran just seven times in their blowout win against Dallas, and he missed the second meeting with an injury.
The Eagles are expected to win this matchup comfortably, with Philly projected to win by more than a touchdown.
If the Eagles are playing from ahead, look for the majority of the rushing work to go to Barkley and others, as the Eagles can afford to look at the bigger picture.
Jake Ferguson
Less Than 35.5 Receiving Yards
Jake Ferguson has been a favorite late-round tight end option for those who play season-long fantasy for years now.
It's easy to see why. When he's on the field, he's a proven pass-catcher who runs a high percentage of routes in a pass-first offense.
All of those things are still true entering this season, except that there is another big mouth to feed in front of him in wide receiver George Pickens.
Last season, without another dominant receiver ahead of him, Ferguson averaged just 5.6 targets per game and 26.5 yards per game.
The Eagles were just one of the many teams that had his number last year, as they held him to 42 yards combined in two meetings.
However, the Eagles were the top team in the NFL at containing tight ends as they ranked first in receiving yards allowed.
With Ferguson in the toughest possible matchup and even lower on the list of receiving options for Prescott, it's likely we see him stay under this number to start the 2025 season.
Dallas Goedert
Less Than 3.5 Receptions
Next, we turn our attention to the other starting tight end in this matchup, Dallas Goedert.
Goedert has been a staple in the Eagles' offense for years now, and despite dealing with a multitude of injuries, his presence on the field makes a significant impact for Philly.
However, against the Cowboys, his impact in the box score is likely to be minimal. Dallas allowed the fewest receptions per game to tight ends, at four.
With Goedert averaging just 4.4 targets last season, he's either going to have to have a perfect catch rate or an uptick in target volume — neither of those is likely.
Not only was Goedert third on the team in targets, with a significant gap between him and DeVonta Smith, but backup tight end Grant Calcaterra ate into the few available targets during the regular season last year.
Nearly everything suggests that Goedert will have a quiet start to the season.
Javonte Williams
Less Than 13.5 Receiving Yards
Our last player to fade is Javonte Williams.
Williams is slated to be the new starting running back in Dallas, but he does not profile as an every-down back for them.
Last year in Denver, Williams averaged just 3.8 targets per game, accounting for 11 percent of the target share.
He now enters a Cowboys offense, where the starting running back was only targeted 7.9 percent of the time.
Plus, the Cowboys drafted Jaydon Blue out of Texas, who comes in with a much better pass-catching pedigree than Williams has shown in the NFL.
Add all that to one of the toughest receiving matchups for running backs, as the Eagles ranked 10th in receiving yards allowed to running backs, and you have yourself a recipe for an under.
