NFL Predictions: Expert Wild Card Picks for Monday

NFL Predictions: Expert Wild Card Picks for Monday

Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and betting card for every day of the playoff slate in my NFL predictions & expert Wild Card picks.

For reference, my regular season record in this file finished at 40-20 (66.7%) for +17.95 units.

For Wild Card weekend, I will share my three favorite bets that include a total on Saturday, a side on Sunday and prop target on Monday night. Click on a game below to see my bet for it.

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Cade Otton could be in for a big night against the Eagles, who have really struggled to cover tight ends all season.

During the regular season, Philly allowed tight ends to catch a whopping 86 passes on 115 targets (74.8% completion rate) for 859 yards. That averages out to just under five catches and 48 yards per game, including a game against a Dolphins team that rarely utilizes its tight end and finished with no production from the position against the Eagles.

Plus, as a result of injuries on the back end and a steep decline in production from safety Reed Blankenship, the results got even worse in the second half of the year. Since Week 8, the Eagles have allowed opposing tight ends to average 5.8 receptions for 57.3 yards.

Believe it or not, since Week 9, Philly's defense ranks 31st in EPA per Play. Plus, the offense has also fallen off a cliff and will now potentially have to deal with injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. A less efficient offense equates to extra snaps for Tampa Bay.

When the Bucs do have the ball, I don't expect them to have much success on the ground. They finished the regular season ranked 28th in Run DVOA, and Philly's defense is still much stronger against the run. That should lead to plenty of passing downs for Otton to get looks.

Also, with Baker Mayfield hobbled against a still very stout pass rush (with some potentially extreme weather to boot), he'll likely have to get rid of the ball much quicker, potentially increasing Otton's target share. Also, Philly may focus its efforts on slowing down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as you'd expect.

While Otton is far from elite, he'll be on the field for a majority of the game and should get all of the potential targets to Bucs TEs. He does have 50 targets over the last 11 games. Otton also has caught 13 passes for 12 or more yards on the season, so there's a good chance he clears his receiving yards (and longest catch) on one reception against an Eagles defense that has allowed 22 completions of at least 12 yards to opposing tight ends. Finally, over their past six games, the Eagles have allowed tight ends to catch nine passes that went for at least 13 yards with eight of them going for 20 or more yards.

I split my bet up equally between the following three markets:

• Over 2.5 Catches (-115)
• Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Longest Reception Over 11.5 Yards (-115)

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I could share trends for days why the Cowboys should cover. In addition to the inexperienced quarterback angle I mentioned earlier, road underdogs of more than a touchdown in the Wild Card Round have gone just 5-12 (29.4%) ATS since 2003.

The Cowboys have also been a covering machine as a favorite of more than six points under Dak Prescott, who has gone a ridiculous 31-12-1 (72.1%) ATS in that situation, covering by almost six points per game on average. That actually makes sense to me since Dallas is an elite frontrunner. Once the Cowboys get a lead, especially against inferior teams, that's when their pass rush can go to work, forcing opponents into mistakes on known passing downs in an unfavorable game script.

I just don't think this game playing out that way. Jordan Love, who finished in the top-5 in EPA among all quarterbacks, is playing at an extremely high level in front of a very stout offensive line that can hold up against the Dallas dominant front.

Since Week 11, Love has arguably been the best quarterback in the league. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, he ranks second in EPA+CPOE composite over that span, trailing only Brock Purdy. Over that same time frame, he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just one interception to go along with a completion percentage north of 70% while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with a silly 0.26 EPA per Pass Play.

He's in some kind of rhythm and should get his top wideout back in some capacity this week. It's pretty amazing what the Packers have done when you consider all of the injuries they have dealt with. Fortunately, they might be as healthy as they've been in quite some time on Sunday. Having a fully healthy and fresh Aaron Jones gives the offense such a boost. He should have success against a Dallas defense that can be exploited a bit on the ground.

For what it's worth, Prescott comes in at No. 3. in EPA+CPOE composite over that span. Ever since the loss to the 49ers, the Cowboys offense has been on a roll. They started throwing more on early downs while feeding Ceedee Lamb whenever they could. The emergence of Jake Ferguson at tight end and Prescott's increased willingness to use his legs when warranted have also sent this offense to the moon. And when healthy, the Cowboys have one of the league's top offensive lines, which is really the engine that makes the entire car run smoothly.

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That said, Dak has benefited from the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. And while Green Bay's defense is most vulnerable against the run, Dallas has not been close to as efficient on the ground. Plus, I'm sure Green Bay would love for McCarthy to go with a run-heavy game plan here regardless of their struggles in that department.

You'll hear plenty about how dominant the Cowboys performed at home all season. They finished 8-0 in Jerry World, averaging over 37 points per game. While impressive no matter how you slice it, Dallas faced the Patriots, Jets, Rams, Giants, Commanders Seahawks, Eagles and Lions at home this season. Not a murder's row of competent quarterbacks and defenses. The Cowboys also easily could've lost to the Seahawks and Lions, each of whom had the ball late with a chance to win games that were decided by one possession.

Ultimately, I played this since I project the line at under a touchdown, so I was happy to take the seven plus the hook with a Packers team that has hit its stride in playoff mode for the past few weeks. Green Bay finished just 4-5 on the road, but all five losses came by four points or fewer and it won all three road games against NFC North opponents this season, including the Lions. Green Bay's extreme youth and inexperience may actually work in its favor against a Dallas team that has all the pressure on it to win.

The Cowboys will undoubtedly get their points at home, but Love and the Green Bay offense can keep up to stay within one possession. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Mike McCarthy made a suboptimal in-game decision that costs the Cowboys points or a game at some point during the postseason.

Pick: Packers +7 (-110)

Wild Card Weekend has historically featured plenty of unders, which have gone 51-35 (59.3%) over the past 20 seasons. However, those have mainly involved teams playing outdoors in contests that usually have less-than-ideal weather conditions this time of year. Indoor wild card games have actually gone over 11 of 19 times, although that's a meaningless sample size.

Regardless of the historical trends, I think this total is too low for various reasons.

The Browns defense won't be at full strength after suffering numerous injuries throughout the latter half of the season, so this unit hasn't been the same dominant unit away from home. That's part of the reason why Browns road overs finished a league-best 8-0, clearing the close by an absurd average of 15 points per game.

During the regular season, the Browns allowed 29.75 points in eight road games. We'll remove the 31 points the Browns' backups gave up to the Bengals in Week 18 and when they faced Case Keenum in Week 16. In those other six games, Cleveland allowed more than 30 points per game with every opponent scoring at least 24 points.

Before the season finale, Cleveland faced Justin Fields, Case Keenum and Trevor Siemian in its previous three games. Before that, the Browns faced the Broncos, Jaguars and Rams, and they allowed each team to score at least 28 points.

Admittedly, I have some reservations about how C.J. Stroud will perform in his first playoff start with a rookie head coach since the track record of that combination doesn't inspire much confidence. For reference, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a QB who has playoff experience have gone just 17-35-1 (32.7%) against the spread (ATS) and 17-36 straight-up (SU) since 2002. Stroud is ahead of most rookie QBs, though, and I think he can hit some explosive plays here.

The Texans defense has major flaws that simply haven't been fully exposed due to an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses. Believe it or not, they faced only one offense all season that finished in the top 10 in EPA per play. That came in Week 1 against the Ravens, who scored 25 points in the first game of a brand-new scheme.

On average, the offenses Houston faced ranked 19th in EPA per play. It only faced two other top-13 offenses in the Bengals and Buccaneers, who scored 27 and 37, respectively. The Browns ranked 28th in EPA per play during the regular season but have a much more competent offense with Joe Flacco, who led the offense to a 36-point outburst in this same stadium a few weeks back.

In Flacco's five starts, Cleveland has averaged over 28 points per game and has gone from a bottom-5 to a top-5 unit in terms of passing explosiveness. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has also let Flacco loose with an extremely pass-heavy game plan, which I expect him to employ again on Saturday.

That's critical because Houston's defense has major issues in coverage on the back end. Those issues are amplified by the fact that edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr. aren't fully healthy. The Texans finished the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in Rush Success Rate (sixth in EPA per rush) compared to 19th in Pass Success Rate (20th in EPA per pass).

I'm interested to see how DeMeco Ryans and Houston's defensive staff decides to defend Amari Cooper after he posted 11 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 16. The Texans could potentially use Derek Stingley as a shadow, but I don't think there's much they can do to slow Cleveland down in the passing game.

I expect two pass-heavy game plans that lead to plenty of explosive plays, which are ideal for an over on a fast track indoors. The highest I'd go on this is 44.5.

Pick: Browns-Texans Over 44.5 (-110)