The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) and New England Patriots (1-1) face off in NFL Week 3. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Steelers are favored by -1.5 with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. The Steelers are -115 moneyline favorites to win outright while the Patriots are -105 to pull off the upset.
Drake Maye and Aaron Rodgers may have an 18-year age gap between them, but their surrounding rosters make this contest a closely lined affair. I will avoid planting my flag on either side here by attacking a total that has not been fully adjusted to each team’s defensive weaknesses in the market.
Let's get into my Steelers vs. Patriots predictions for NFL Week 3.
Steelers vs Patriots Prediction
- Steelers vs Patriots pick: Over 44.5 Points
My Steelers vs Patriots best bet is on the game total to go over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Patriots Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
Steelers vs Patriots NFL Week 3 Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: Can Aaron Rodgers Exploits the Pats?
The Steelers defense has played well below expectations to begin the regular season. They have allowed a league-high 22 explosive plays of 15 or more yards.
Pittsburgh has faced off against Justin Fields and Sam Darnold, yet it has been carved up through the air, ranking 29th in yards per attempt through two games. The Steelers rank 28th in completion percentage over expectation allowed and have generated just three sacks.
To make matters worse for Mike Tomlin, his defense is dealing with several key injuries. Joey Porter Jr, DeShon Elliott and Alex Highsmith are all likely to miss this game. Pittsburgh faces an uphill battle this week when it comes to getting stops — only the Dolphins have been worse to open the season in terms of opponents’ offensive success rate per play.
Aaron Rodgers has the ability to match New England on the scoreboard. It would not surprise me to see another vintage performance against the league’s most vulnerable pass defense.
New England ranks last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed (10.2) and first downs surrendered through the air. Opposing passers are averaging an astounding 12.2 yards per completion against the Patriots.
Even with the return of Christian Gonzalez at cornerback, there should be plenty of opportunities for explosive plays versus a New England defense that has given up the most 20+ yard chunk gains in the NFL this season.
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Offense Should Thrive
Drake Maye has a high ceiling, but he is in the midst of the growing pains nearly every young quarterback endures during their first 15-20 starts in the NFL. However, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made two adjustments in Week 2 that should make life easier for Maye.
Maye was given the freedom to use his legs more, something he has excelled at early in his career. The second-year quarterback carried the rock 10 times against the Dolphins, with three of those going for first downs on critical third-down situations, and another going for a touchdown that gave New England the lead in the late third quarter.
Secondly, McDaniels increased his usage of motion drastically in Week 2. According to Sharp Football, the Patriots used motion at a 28% rate in Week 1 but doubled that in Week 2, using it on 56% of all Maye passing attempts.
Maye is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt on 42 passes without motion, but 10.4 yards per attempt on the 27 passes where pre-snap motion was used.
Steelers vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Patriots have been stout against the run, boasting the fifth-best rush defense DVOA.
I can only hope Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tries to exploit the clear weakness of the New England defense by using his Week 1 gameplan that saw the Steelers have the fifth-highest neutral pass rate in the league. This will create more explosive plays and more clock stoppages due to incompletions.
Both offenses will have the upper-hand in this game and the weather forecast looks perfectly clear. This total should be sitting above the key number of 45.
Pick: Over 44.5
Spread
I'm not backing either team on the spread.
Moneyline
Like the spread, I'm not backing either team on the moneyline.
Over/Under
My prediction is that the Steelers and Patriots will beat the points total of 44.5.
