Steelers vs Seahawks Pick, Prediction for NFL Week 17
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Steelers vs Seahawks Pick, Prediction for NFL Week 17
The latest Steelers vs Seahawks odds have Pittsburgh listed as a 4-point underdog on the spread with an over/under of 40.5 total points. I'll be targeting the total for my Steelers vs Seahawks pick, prediction.
These two offenses have had their fair share of struggles this season, but they both seem to be improving at the right time. With the forecast looking just fine on Sunday, I think that we could see both of these offenses surprise against favorable defensive matchups.
Steelers vs Seahawks Pick, Prediction
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Steelers vs Seahawks Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
Last week, Mason Rudolph led the Steelers to a win over the Bengals to keep their playoff hopes alive. Rudolph averaged 0.30 EPA per play, which was enough for him to hold onto the starting job. For what it's worth, Pittsburgh's starter to begin the season, Kenny Pickett, logged limited practices all week and is listed as questionable.
I pointed out last week that the difference between Rudolph and Pickett over the course of their careers hadn’t been meaningful to this point, so I didn’t expect much of a change in the Steelers’ offensive output.
The Steelers benefitted on offense from some big plays, mostly from George Pickens. On a micro level, they had a 46% success rate and 69.6% series conversion rate, both of which are closer to average than the EPA numbers would show.
While Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t been good, Seattle’s has been just as bad, if not worse. Seattle’s defense ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed and success rate allowed. The Seahawks have been below average in both facets of defense, ranking 22nd in dropback EPA allowed and 30th against the run.
I don’t believe that Pittsburgh will be able to repeat last weekend’s performance, but there is a possibility that they can find some success and hang around with Seattle.
Steelers vs Seahawks Picks: FanDuel
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Seattle’s offense has been above average this season, ranking 11th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. The Seahawks are 11th in both of these categories through the air while their rushing offense is 13th in EPA and 16th in success rate.
Geno Smith made his return against Tennessee and led a game-winning drive when Seattle needed it most. The Seahawks averaged 0.18 EPA per play, including 0.33 per pass and 0.47 on late-down passes. They also put up an impressive 80.8% series conversion rate and gained 62.75% of their available yards.
Drew Lock filled in admirably for Smith in terms of total impact as the former is averaging a higher EPA per play. However, this is based on some big plays that Lock generated. On a down-to-down basis, Smith has a 48.8% dropback success rate compared to 36.3% for Lock. With Smith back in the lineup, Seattle’s offense should prove to be much more reliable.
The Steelers have an above average defense that ranks 10th in EPA per play allowed and seventh in success rate. They are eighth in dropback EPA allowed and 10th in dropback success rate. Their biggest flaw is the propensity to allow big runs — they are 17th in EPA per rush allowed despite ranking fifth in rushing success rate allowed. This poses well for a home run hitter like Kenneth Walker.
Steelers vs. Seahawks Prediction & Pick
Both teams need a win to improve their chances of making the playoffs. This matchup is almost a pseudo-elimination game as the loser will face an uphill battle toward a postseason berth.
With the way that Geno Smith has been playing recently and Kenneth Walker’s ability to break off big runs, I think Seattle can have a successful day against the Steelers defense. On the other side, I think Pittsburgh will be able to hang around and put up enough points to make it close.
With this total currently at 40.5, I like taking the over as I believe both teams can eclipse 20 points in a tightly-contested game.
Pick: Over 40.5 | Play to 41
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