There are not many Thursday Night Football games that I have loved so far and with good reason — these games have been truly awful.
Not making any promises on tonight's Titans vs. Packers game, but at least I feel good about a bet.
The Packers came into this game as a 3.5 point favorite, which seems like a perfect recency bias number.
A team averaging 17 points a game goes out and scores 31 against the Cowboys and wins in overtime. And wins in comeback fashion. A team with historical pedigree, no less. Of course they're going to be overrated the following game.
And then you have the good old Lambeau Field home field advantage. Since 2014, the Packers win 62% of their games at home, only bested by the Chiefs and Patriots (70%). They also cover against the spread at a 61% clip at Lambeau over that time period, which is the second-best rate in the league. The Packers have gone 3-2 at home and 1-4 on the road this season.
For these reasons, the public is on the Packers tonight. They've got 54% of the bets and 60% of the money at BetMGM.
But the Titans are the team with actual value here. They're 7-2 against the spread, tied for the league's best, which means that they've been most underestimated by the bookmakers.
Say what you want about the Packers being ready for the cold, but we got swirling winds and that's gonna mean the running game will dominate. Derrick Henry has averaged 121 yards per game over his last seven games and the Packers are awful against the run, with the third-worst rush defense in the NFL, according to DVOA.
I liked it better when I got the hook, but I'm still taking the Titans +3 at BetMGM tonight.
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