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Super Bowl 54 Simulations Reveal 49ers vs. Chiefs Spread Betting Value

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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: The San Francisco 49ers defense

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX). A majority of spread tickets are on Patrick Mahomes & Co.

Bookmakers and the public favor the Chiefs but not The Action Network’s model, which uses player and team statistics to simulate the Super Bowl 10,000 times.


Odds as of Jan. 22 and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


According to the math, the 49ers, not the Chiefs, should be favored. On average, our simulations have Kyle Shanahan’s team winning by 0.4 points.

The numbers suggest the 49ers should be favored, but can we trust the simulations?

Super Bowl 54 Simulations, Odds

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