A lot has changed since Kansas City won the Super Bowl in February.
Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton was officially named the successor in New England. The Chiefs inked Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year (!) extension. The Bengals drafted who they hope to be their franchise quarterback … and that's barely scratching the surface before even factoring in the impacts of COVID-19.
Now with the season set to kick off on time, we ran our model's simulations of all 256 games 10,000 times to project every team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, making the playoffs, and winning its division and conference.
We've outlined those projections alongside which books have the best available odds (meaning the most valuable odds).
Disclaimer: Odds are as of Sept. 9 and via various legal sportsbooks. Note that these are not recommendations, we are only highlighting the best lines for each market.
| SKIP TO A TEAM |
|---|
| ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS |
Arizona Cardinals
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 40.85% | Yes +260
No -300 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 14.84% | +800 | BetMGM |
| Conference | 8.57% | +3000 | William Hill |
| Super Bowl | 1.53% | +5000 | DraftKings |
Atlanta Falcons
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 32.39% | Yes +240
No -286 | William Hill
DraftKings |
| Division | 11.40% | +900 | BetMGM |
| Conference | 5.71% | +2500 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 0.92% | +5000 | DraftKings |
Baltimore Ravens
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 87.56% | Yes -715
No +600 | DraftKings
William Hill |
| Division | 60.68% | -200 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 40.93% | +320 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 14.43% | +650 | DraftKings |
Buffalo Bills
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 46.99% | Yes -175
No +160 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 24.20% | +125 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 8.91% | +1300 | FanDuel |
| Super Bowl | 1.31% | +2800 | FanDuel |
Carolina Panthers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 10.68% | Yes +500
NO -556 | William Hill
BetMGM |
| Division | 2.88% | +2500 | bet365 |
| Conference | 1.03% | +6000 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 0.09% | +12500 | DraftKings |
Chicago Bears
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 22.28% | Yes +155
No -180 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 11.32% | +500 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 3.21% | +2500 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 0.26% | +5000 | DraftKings |
Cincinnati Bengals
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 17.27% | Yes +700
No -1000 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 3.48% | +3000 | William Hill |
| Conference | 1.53% | +10000 | William Hill |
| Super Bowl | 0.20% | +20000 | William Hill |
Cleveland Browns
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 25.43% | Yes +130
No -149 | William Hill
BetMGM |
| Division | 5.40% | +550 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 2.67% | +2000 | WilliamHill |
| Super Bowl | 0.29% | +4000 | DraftKings |
Dallas Cowboys
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 74.01% | Yes -220
No +200 | William Hill
DraftKings |
| Division | 59.66% | -110 | BetMGM |
| Conference | 26.07% | +825 | PointsBet |
| Super Bowl | 6.11% | +1700 | PointsBet |
Denver Broncos
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 21.93% | Yes +200
No -208 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 6.50% | +1100 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 2.55% | +3000 | FanDuel |
| Super Bowl | 0.28% | +6000 | FanDuel |
Detroit Lions
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 39.32% | Yes +280
No -300 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 22.86% | +600 | BetMGM |
| Conference | 7.75% | +4000 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 1.01% | +8000 | BetMGM |
Green Bay Packers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 43.68% | Yes -129
No +125 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 26.70% | +200 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 10.34% | +1600 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 1.58% | +3500 | BetMGM |
Houston Texans
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 27.52% | Yes +155
No -177 | William Hill
DraftKings |
| Division | 11.00% | +355 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 3.83% | +3000 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 0.54% | +6500 | BetMGM |
Indianapolis Colts
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 71.57% | Yes -149
No +154 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 48.78% | +125 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 21.00% | +1200 | PointsBet |
| Super Bowl | 4.73% | +2500 | PointsBet |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 11.36% | Yes +800
No -1250 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 3.64% | +2500 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 0.89% | +10000 | PointsBet |
| Super Bowl | 0.03% | +20000 | FanDuel |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 91.27% | Yes -1000
No +800 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 79.53% | -420 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 45.85% | +300 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 16.65% | +600 | DraftKings |
Los Angeles Rams
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 42.73% | Yes +165
No -175 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 15.55% | +570 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 9.37% | +2500 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 1.48% | +5000 | BetMGM |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 33.42% | Yes +180
No -186 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 10.57% | +850 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 4.87% | +2200 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 0.69% | +4500 | DraftKings |
Miami Dolphins
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 29.76% | Yes +500
No -500 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 13.02% | +875 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 3.77% | +5500 | PointsBet |
| Super Bowl | 0.42% | +10000 | BetMGM |
Minnesota Vikings
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 56.79% | Yes -130
No +120 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 39.12% | +170 | bet365 |
| Conference | 16.05% | +1500 | William Hill |
| Super Bowl | 3.53% | +2800 | DraftKings |
New England Patriots
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 75.53% | Yes -177
No +200 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 58.23% | +135 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 25.26% | +1200 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 6.61% | +2500 | BetMGM |
New Orleans Saints
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 79.04% | Yes -330
No +310 | William Hill
BetMGM |
| Division | 55.50% | -110 | bet365 |
| Conference | 33.81% | +600 | FanDuel |
| Super Bowl | 10.20% | +1200 | FanDuel |
New York Giants
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 18.19% | Yes +370
No -385 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 8.65% | +1500 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 2.56% | +5000 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 0.27% | +10000 | BetMGM |
New York Jets
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 11.31% | Yes +450
No -500 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 4.55% | +875 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 0.85% | +5500 | PointsBet |
| Super Bowl | 0.06% | +12000 | PointsBet |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 14.93% | Yes +255
No -280 | DraftKings
William Hill |
| Division | 3.40% | +1200 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 1.42% | +4000 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 0.15% | +8000 | BetMGM |
Philadelphia Eagles
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 49.14% | Yes -177
No +165 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 29.72% | +150 | DraftKings |
| Conference | 11.27% | +1200 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 1.92% | +2500 | BetMGM |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 69.89% | Yes -115
No +115 | BetMGM
William Hill |
| Division | 30.44% | +400 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 19.33% | +1400 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 4.59% | +3000 | BetMGM |
San Francisco 49ers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 80.40% | Yes -335
No +280 | DraftKings
William Hill |
| Division | 57.70% | +105 | bet365 |
| Conference | 36.43% | +475 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 11.13% | +1000 | DraftKings |
Seattle Seahawks
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 44.91% | Yes -135
No +115 | William Hill
BetMGM |
| Division | 16.91% | +230 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 10.32% | +1000 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 1.83% | +2200 | DraftKings |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 60.78% | Yes -190
No +180 | DraftKings
BetMGM |
| Division | 30.22% | +160 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 17.06% | +750 | DraftKings |
| Super Bowl | 3.72% | +1500 | FanDuel |
Tennessee Titans
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 64.26% | Yes -134
No +120 | DraftKings
William Hill |
| Division | 36.58% | +170 | PointsBet |
| Conference | 16.34% | +1800 | BetMGM |
| Super Bowl | 3.4% | +3500 | BetMGM |
Washington Football Team
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Book |
|---|
| Playoffs | 4.81% | Yes +900
No -835 | BetMGM
DraftKings |
| Division | 1.97% | +2300 | FanDuel |
| Conference | 0.45% | +10000 | William Hill |
| Super Bowl | 0.04% | +20000 | William Hill |
About the Author
Katie is the Managing Editor at Action, where she helps oversee the NFL and fantasy football verticals. Her most profitable betting strategy is tailing Sean Koerner (before ultimately losing her winnings on first touchdown props).
Follow Katie Richcreek @katiesrichcreek on Twitter/X.
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