Comparing Our Super Bowl & NFL Playoff Projections to Odds for All 32 Teams

Credit:

Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott

A lot has changed since Kansas City won the Super Bowl in February.

Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton was officially named the successor in New England. The Chiefs inked Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year (!) extension. The Bengals drafted who they hope to be their franchise quarterback … and that’s barely scratching the surface before even factoring in the impacts of COVID-19.

Now with the season set to kick off on time, we ran our model’s simulations of all 256 games 10,000 times to project every team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, making the playoffs, and winning its division and conference.

We’ve outlined those projections alongside which books have the best available odds (meaning the most valuable odds).

Disclaimer: Odds are as of Sept. 9 and via various legal sportsbooks. Note that these are not recommendations, we are only highlighting the best lines for each market.

SKIP TO A TEAM
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS

Arizona Cardinals

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
40.85%
Yes +260
No -300
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
14.84%
+800
BetMGM
Conference
8.57%
+3000
William Hill
Super Bowl
1.53%
+5000
DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
32.39%
Yes +240
No -286
William Hill
DraftKings
Division
11.40%
+900
BetMGM
Conference
5.71%
+2500
DraftKings
Super Bowl
0.92%
+5000
DraftKings

Baltimore Ravens

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
87.56%
Yes -715
No +600
DraftKings
William Hill
Division
60.68%
-200
FanDuel
Conference
40.93%
+320
DraftKings
Super Bowl
14.43%
+650
DraftKings

Buffalo Bills

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
46.99%
Yes -175
No +160
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
24.20%
+125
FanDuel
Conference
8.91%
+1300
FanDuel
Super Bowl
1.31%
+2800
FanDuel

Carolina Panthers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
10.68%
Yes +500
NO -556
William Hill
BetMGM
Division
2.88%
+2500
bet365
Conference
1.03%
+6000
DraftKings
Super Bowl
0.09%
+12500
DraftKings

Chicago Bears

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
22.28%
Yes +155
No -180
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
11.32%
+500
PointsBet
Conference
3.21%
+2500
BetMGM
Super Bowl
0.26%
+5000
DraftKings

Cincinnati Bengals

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
17.27%
Yes +700
No -1000
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
3.48%
+3000
William Hill
Conference
1.53%
+10000
William Hill
Super Bowl
0.20%
+20000
William Hill

Cleveland Browns

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
25.43%
Yes +130
No -149
William Hill
BetMGM
Division
5.40%
+550
DraftKings
Conference
2.67%
+2000
WilliamHill
Super Bowl
0.29%
+4000
DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
74.01%
Yes -220
No +200
William Hill
DraftKings
Division
59.66%
-110
BetMGM
Conference
26.07%
+825
PointsBet
Super Bowl
6.11%
+1700
PointsBet

Denver Broncos

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
21.93%
Yes +200
No -208
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
6.50%
+1100
DraftKings
Conference
2.55%
+3000
FanDuel
Super Bowl
0.28%
+6000
FanDuel

Detroit Lions

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
39.32%
Yes +280
No -300
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
22.86%
+600
BetMGM
Conference
7.75%
+4000
BetMGM
Super Bowl
1.01%
+8000
BetMGM

Green Bay Packers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
43.68%
Yes -129
No +125
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
26.70%
+200
PointsBet
Conference
10.34%
+1600
BetMGM
Super Bowl
1.58%
+3500
BetMGM

Houston Texans

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
27.52%
Yes +155
No -177
William Hill
DraftKings
Division
11.00%
+355
PointsBet
Conference
3.83%
+3000
BetMGM
Super Bowl
0.54%
+6500
BetMGM

Indianapolis Colts

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
71.57%
Yes -149
No +154
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
48.78%
+125
DraftKings
Conference
21.00%
+1200
PointsBet
Super Bowl
4.73%
+2500
PointsBet

Jacksonville Jaguars

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
11.36%
Yes +800
No -1250
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
3.64%
+2500
DraftKings
Conference
0.89%
+10000
PointsBet
Super Bowl
0.03%
+20000
FanDuel

Kansas City Chiefs

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
91.27%
Yes -1000
No +800
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
79.53%
-420
FanDuel
Conference
45.85%
+300
DraftKings
Super Bowl
16.65%
+600
DraftKings

Los Angeles Rams

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
42.73%
Yes +165
No -175
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
15.55%
+570
PointsBet
Conference
9.37%
+2500
BetMGM
Super Bowl
1.48%
+5000
BetMGM

Los Angeles Chargers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
33.42%
Yes +180
No -186
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
10.57%
+850
PointsBet
Conference
4.87%
+2200
DraftKings
Super Bowl
0.69%
+4500
DraftKings

Miami Dolphins

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
29.76%
Yes +500
No -500
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
13.02%
+875
PointsBet
Conference
3.77%
+5500
PointsBet
Super Bowl
0.42%
+10000
BetMGM

Minnesota Vikings

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
56.79%
Yes -130
No +120
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
39.12%
+170
bet365
Conference
16.05%
+1500
William Hill
Super Bowl
3.53%
+2800
DraftKings

New England Patriots

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
75.53%
Yes -177
No +200
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
58.23%
+135
PointsBet
Conference
25.26%
+1200
BetMGM
Super Bowl
6.61%
+2500
BetMGM

New Orleans Saints

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
79.04%
Yes -330
No +310
William Hill
BetMGM
Division
55.50%
-110
bet365
Conference
33.81%
+600
FanDuel
Super Bowl
10.20%
+1200
FanDuel

New York Giants

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
18.19%
Yes +370
No -385
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
8.65%
+1500
FanDuel
Conference
2.56%
+5000
BetMGM
Super Bowl
0.27%
+10000
BetMGM

New York Jets

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
11.31%
Yes +450
No -500
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
4.55%
+875
PointsBet
Conference
0.85%
+5500
PointsBet
Super Bowl
0.06%
+12000
PointsBet

Las Vegas Raiders

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
14.93%
Yes +255
No -280
DraftKings
William Hill
Division
3.40%
+1200
DraftKings
Conference
1.42%
+4000
BetMGM
Super Bowl
0.15%
+8000
BetMGM

Philadelphia Eagles

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
49.14%
Yes -177
No +165
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
29.72%
+150
DraftKings
Conference
11.27%
+1200
BetMGM
Super Bowl
1.92%
+2500
BetMGM

Pittsburgh Steelers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
69.89%
Yes -115
No +115
BetMGM
William Hill
Division
30.44%
+400
PointsBet
Conference
19.33%
+1400
BetMGM
Super Bowl
4.59%
+3000
BetMGM

San Francisco 49ers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
80.40%
Yes -335
No +280
DraftKings
William Hill
Division
57.70%
+105
bet365
Conference
36.43%
+475
DraftKings
Super Bowl
11.13%
+1000
DraftKings

Seattle Seahawks

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
44.91%
Yes -135
No +115
William Hill
BetMGM
Division
16.91%
+230
FanDuel
Conference
10.32%
+1000
DraftKings
Super Bowl
1.83%
+2200
DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
60.78%
Yes -190
No +180
DraftKings
BetMGM
Division
30.22%
+160
FanDuel
Conference
17.06%
+750
DraftKings
Super Bowl
3.72%
+1500
FanDuel

Tennessee Titans

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
64.26%
Yes -134
No +120
DraftKings
William Hill
Division
36.58%
+170
PointsBet
Conference
16.34%
+1800
BetMGM
Super Bowl
3.4%
+3500
BetMGM

Washington Football Team

Market
Proj.
Odds
Book
Playoffs
4.81%
Yes +900
No -835
BetMGM
DraftKings
Division
1.97%
+2300
FanDuel
Conference
0.45%
+10000
William Hill
Super Bowl
0.04%
+20000
William Hill
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