A lot has changed since Kansas City won the Super Bowl in February.
Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton was officially named the successor in New England. The Chiefs inked Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year (!) extension. The Bengals drafted who they hope to be their franchise quarterback … and that's barely scratching the surface before even factoring in the impacts of COVID-19.
Now with the season set to kick off on time, we ran our model's simulations of all 256 games 10,000 times to project every team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, making the playoffs, and winning its division and conference.
We've outlined those projections alongside which books have the best available odds (meaning the most valuable odds).
Disclaimer: Odds are as of Sept. 9 and via various legal sportsbooks . Note that these are not recommendations, we are only highlighting the best lines for each market.
SKIP TO A TEAM ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS
Arizona Cardinals Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 40.85% Yes +260 BetMGM William Hill Division 14.84% +800 BetMGM Conference 8.57% +3000 William Hill Super Bowl 1.53% +5000 DraftKings
Atlanta Falcons Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 32.39% Yes +240 William Hill DraftKings Division 11.40% +900 BetMGM Conference 5.71% +2500 DraftKings Super Bowl 0.92% +5000 DraftKings
Baltimore Ravens Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 87.56% Yes -715 DraftKings William Hill Division 60.68% -200 FanDuel Conference 40.93% +320 DraftKings Super Bowl 14.43% +650 DraftKings
Buffalo Bills Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 46.99% Yes -175 BetMGM William Hill Division 24.20% +125 FanDuel Conference 8.91% +1300 FanDuel Super Bowl 1.31% +2800 FanDuel
Carolina Panthers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 10.68% Yes +500 William Hill BetMGM Division 2.88% +2500 bet365 Conference 1.03% +6000 DraftKings Super Bowl 0.09% +12500 DraftKings
Chicago Bears Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 22.28% Yes +155 BetMGM William Hill Division 11.32% +500 PointsBet Conference 3.21% +2500 BetMGM Super Bowl 0.26% +5000 DraftKings
Cincinnati Bengals Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 17.27% Yes +700 BetMGM DraftKings Division 3.48% +3000 William Hill Conference 1.53% +10000 William Hill Super Bowl 0.20% +20000 William Hill
Cleveland Browns Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 25.43% Yes +130 William Hill BetMGM Division 5.40% +550 DraftKings Conference 2.67% +2000 WilliamHill Super Bowl 0.29% +4000 DraftKings
Dallas Cowboys Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 74.01% Yes -220 William Hill DraftKings Division 59.66% -110 BetMGM Conference 26.07% +825 PointsBet Super Bowl 6.11% +1700 PointsBet
Denver Broncos Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 21.93% Yes +200 DraftKings BetMGM Division 6.50% +1100 DraftKings Conference 2.55% +3000 FanDuel Super Bowl 0.28% +6000 FanDuel
Detroit Lions Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 39.32% Yes +280 BetMGM William Hill Division 22.86% +600 BetMGM Conference 7.75% +4000 BetMGM Super Bowl 1.01% +8000 BetMGM
Green Bay Packers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 43.68% Yes -129 DraftKings BetMGM Division 26.70% +200 PointsBet Conference 10.34% +1600 BetMGM Super Bowl 1.58% +3500 BetMGM
Houston Texans Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 27.52% Yes +155 William Hill DraftKings Division 11.00% +355 PointsBet Conference 3.83% +3000 BetMGM Super Bowl 0.54% +6500 BetMGM
Indianapolis Colts Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 71.57% Yes -149 BetMGM DraftKings Division 48.78% +125 DraftKings Conference 21.00% +1200 PointsBet Super Bowl 4.73% +2500 PointsBet
Jacksonville Jaguars Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 11.36% Yes +800 BetMGM DraftKings Division 3.64% +2500 DraftKings Conference 0.89% +10000 PointsBet Super Bowl 0.03% +20000 FanDuel
Kansas City Chiefs Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 91.27% Yes -1000 DraftKings BetMGM Division 79.53% -420 FanDuel Conference 45.85% +300 DraftKings Super Bowl 16.65% +600 DraftKings
Los Angeles Rams Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 42.73% Yes +165 BetMGM William Hill Division 15.55% +570 PointsBet Conference 9.37% +2500 BetMGM Super Bowl 1.48% +5000 BetMGM
Los Angeles Chargers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 33.42% Yes +180 BetMGM DraftKings Division 10.57% +850 PointsBet Conference 4.87% +2200 DraftKings Super Bowl 0.69% +4500 DraftKings
Miami Dolphins Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 29.76% Yes +500 BetMGM DraftKings Division 13.02% +875 PointsBet Conference 3.77% +5500 PointsBet Super Bowl 0.42% +10000 BetMGM
Minnesota Vikings Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 56.79% Yes -130 BetMGM William Hill Division 39.12% +170 bet365 Conference 16.05% +1500 William Hill Super Bowl 3.53% +2800 DraftKings
New England Patriots Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 75.53% Yes -177 DraftKings BetMGM Division 58.23% +135 PointsBet Conference 25.26% +1200 BetMGM Super Bowl 6.61% +2500 BetMGM
New Orleans Saints Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 79.04% Yes -330 William Hill BetMGM Division 55.50% -110 bet365 Conference 33.81% +600 FanDuel Super Bowl 10.20% +1200 FanDuel
New York Giants Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 18.19% Yes +370 DraftKings BetMGM Division 8.65% +1500 FanDuel Conference 2.56% +5000 BetMGM Super Bowl 0.27% +10000 BetMGM
New York Jets Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 11.31% Yes +450 BetMGM DraftKings Division 4.55% +875 PointsBet Conference 0.85% +5500 PointsBet Super Bowl 0.06% +12000 PointsBet
Las Vegas Raiders Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 14.93% Yes +255 DraftKings William Hill Division 3.40% +1200 DraftKings Conference 1.42% +4000 BetMGM Super Bowl 0.15% +8000 BetMGM
Philadelphia Eagles Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 49.14% Yes -177 DraftKings BetMGM Division 29.72% +150 DraftKings Conference 11.27% +1200 BetMGM Super Bowl 1.92% +2500 BetMGM
Pittsburgh Steelers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 69.89% Yes -115 BetMGM William Hill Division 30.44% +400 PointsBet Conference 19.33% +1400 BetMGM Super Bowl 4.59% +3000 BetMGM
San Francisco 49ers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 80.40% Yes -335 DraftKings William Hill Division 57.70% +105 bet365 Conference 36.43% +475 DraftKings Super Bowl 11.13% +1000 DraftKings
Seattle Seahawks Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 44.91% Yes -135 William Hill BetMGM Division 16.91% +230 FanDuel Conference 10.32% +1000 DraftKings Super Bowl 1.83% +2200 DraftKings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 60.78% Yes -190 DraftKings BetMGM Division 30.22% +160 FanDuel Conference 17.06% +750 DraftKings Super Bowl 3.72% +1500 FanDuel
Tennessee Titans Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 64.26% Yes -134 DraftKings William Hill Division 36.58% +170 PointsBet Conference 16.34% +1800 BetMGM Super Bowl 3.4% +3500 BetMGM
Washington Football Team Market Proj. Odds Book Playoffs 4.81% Yes +900 BetMGM DraftKings Division 1.97% +2300 FanDuel Conference 0.45% +10000 William Hill Super Bowl 0.04% +20000 William Hill
About the Author
Katie is the Managing Editor at Action, where she helps oversee the NFL and fantasy football verticals. Her most profitable betting strategy is tailing Sean Koerner (before ultimately losing her winnings on first touchdown props).
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