Comparing Our Super Bowl & NFL Playoff Projections to Odds for All 32 Teams

A lot has changed since Kansas City won the Super Bowl in February.

Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton was officially named the successor in New England. The Chiefs inked Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year (!) extension. The Bengals drafted who they hope to be their franchise quarterback … and that’s barely scratching the surface before even factoring in the impacts of COVID-19.

Now with the season set to kick off on time, we ran our model’s simulations of all 256 games 10,000 times to project every team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, making the playoffs, and winning its division and conference.

We’ve outlined those projections alongside which books have the best available odds (meaning the most valuable odds).

Disclaimer: Odds are as of Sept. 9 and via various legal sportsbooks. Note that these are not recommendations, we are only highlighting the best lines for each market.

SKIP TO A TEAM
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS

Arizona Cardinals

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	40.85%	Yes +260 No -300	BetMGM William Hill
Division	14.84%	+800	BetMGM
Conference	8.57%	+3000	William Hill
Super Bowl	1.53%	+5000	DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	32.39%	Yes +240 No -286	William Hill DraftKings
Division	11.40%	+900	BetMGM
Conference	5.71%	+2500	DraftKings
Super Bowl	0.92%	+5000	DraftKings

Baltimore Ravens

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	87.56%	Yes -715 No +600	DraftKings William Hill
Division	60.68%	-200	FanDuel
Conference	40.93%	+320	DraftKings
Super Bowl	14.43%	+650	DraftKings

Buffalo Bills

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	46.99%	Yes -175 No +160	BetMGM William Hill
Division	24.20%	+125	FanDuel
Conference	8.91%	+1300	FanDuel
Super Bowl	1.31%	+2800	FanDuel

Carolina Panthers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	10.68%	Yes +500 NO -556	William Hill BetMGM
Division	2.88%	+2500	bet365
Conference	1.03%	+6000	DraftKings
Super Bowl	0.09%	+12500	DraftKings

Chicago Bears

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	22.28%	Yes +155 No -180	BetMGM William Hill
Division	11.32%	+500	PointsBet
Conference	3.21%	+2500	BetMGM
Super Bowl	0.26%	+5000	DraftKings

Cincinnati Bengals

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	17.27%	Yes +700 No -1000	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	3.48%	+3000	William Hill
Conference	1.53%	+10000	William Hill
Super Bowl	0.20%	+20000	William Hill

Cleveland Browns

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	25.43%	Yes +130 No -149	William Hill BetMGM
Division	5.40%	+550	DraftKings
Conference	2.67%	+2000	WilliamHill
Super Bowl	0.29%	+4000	DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	74.01%	Yes -220 No +200	William Hill DraftKings
Division	59.66%	-110	BetMGM
Conference	26.07%	+825	PointsBet
Super Bowl	6.11%	+1700	PointsBet

Denver Broncos

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	21.93%	Yes +200 No -208	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	6.50%	+1100	DraftKings
Conference	2.55%	+3000	FanDuel
Super Bowl	0.28%	+6000	FanDuel

Detroit Lions

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	39.32%	Yes +280 No -300	BetMGM William Hill
Division	22.86%	+600	BetMGM
Conference	7.75%	+4000	BetMGM
Super Bowl	1.01%	+8000	BetMGM

Green Bay Packers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	43.68%	Yes -129 No +125	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	26.70%	+200	PointsBet
Conference	10.34%	+1600	BetMGM
Super Bowl	1.58%	+3500	BetMGM

Houston Texans

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	27.52%	Yes +155 No -177	William Hill DraftKings
Division	11.00%	+355	PointsBet
Conference	3.83%	+3000	BetMGM
Super Bowl	0.54%	+6500	BetMGM

Indianapolis Colts

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	71.57%	Yes -149 No +154	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	48.78%	+125	DraftKings
Conference	21.00%	+1200	PointsBet
Super Bowl	4.73%	+2500	PointsBet

Jacksonville Jaguars

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	11.36%	Yes +800 No -1250	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	3.64%	+2500	DraftKings
Conference	0.89%	+10000	PointsBet
Super Bowl	0.03%	+20000	FanDuel

Kansas City Chiefs

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	91.27%	Yes -1000 No +800	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	79.53%	-420	FanDuel
Conference	45.85%	+300	DraftKings
Super Bowl	16.65%	+600	DraftKings

Los Angeles Rams

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	42.73%	Yes +165 No -175	BetMGM William Hill
Division	15.55%	+570	PointsBet
Conference	9.37%	+2500	BetMGM
Super Bowl	1.48%	+5000	BetMGM

Los Angeles Chargers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	33.42%	Yes +180 No -186	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	10.57%	+850	PointsBet
Conference	4.87%	+2200	DraftKings
Super Bowl	0.69%	+4500	DraftKings

Miami Dolphins

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	29.76%	Yes +500 No -500	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	13.02%	+875	PointsBet
Conference	3.77%	+5500	PointsBet
Super Bowl	0.42%	+10000	BetMGM

Minnesota Vikings

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	56.79%	Yes -130 No +120	BetMGM William Hill
Division	39.12%	+170	bet365
Conference	16.05%	+1500	William Hill
Super Bowl	3.53%	+2800	DraftKings

New England Patriots

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	75.53%	Yes -177 No +200	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	58.23%	+135	PointsBet
Conference	25.26%	+1200	BetMGM
Super Bowl	6.61%	+2500	BetMGM

New Orleans Saints

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	79.04%	Yes -330 No +310	William Hill BetMGM
Division	55.50%	-110	bet365
Conference	33.81%	+600	FanDuel
Super Bowl	10.20%	+1200	FanDuel

New York Giants

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	18.19%	Yes +370 No -385	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	8.65%	+1500	FanDuel
Conference	2.56%	+5000	BetMGM
Super Bowl	0.27%	+10000	BetMGM

New York Jets

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	11.31%	Yes +450 No -500	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	4.55%	+875	PointsBet
Conference	0.85%	+5500	PointsBet
Super Bowl	0.06%	+12000	PointsBet

Las Vegas Raiders

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	14.93%	Yes +255 No -280	DraftKings William Hill
Division	3.40%	+1200	DraftKings
Conference	1.42%	+4000	BetMGM
Super Bowl	0.15%	+8000	BetMGM

Philadelphia Eagles

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	49.14%	Yes -177 No +165	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	29.72%	+150	DraftKings
Conference	11.27%	+1200	BetMGM
Super Bowl	1.92%	+2500	BetMGM

Pittsburgh Steelers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	69.89%	Yes -115 No +115	BetMGM William Hill
Division	30.44%	+400	PointsBet
Conference	19.33%	+1400	BetMGM
Super Bowl	4.59%	+3000	BetMGM

San Francisco 49ers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	80.40%	Yes -335 No +280	DraftKings William Hill
Division	57.70%	+105	bet365
Conference	36.43%	+475	DraftKings
Super Bowl	11.13%	+1000	DraftKings

Seattle Seahawks

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	44.91%	Yes -135 No +115	William Hill BetMGM
Division	16.91%	+230	FanDuel
Conference	10.32%	+1000	DraftKings
Super Bowl	1.83%	+2200	DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	60.78%	Yes -190 No +180	DraftKings BetMGM
Division	30.22%	+160	FanDuel
Conference	17.06%	+750	DraftKings
Super Bowl	3.72%	+1500	FanDuel

Tennessee Titans

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	64.26%	Yes -134 No +120	DraftKings William Hill
Division	36.58%	+170	PointsBet
Conference	16.34%	+1800	BetMGM
Super Bowl	3.4%	+3500	BetMGM

Washington Football Team

Market	Proj.	Odds	Book
Playoffs	4.81%	Yes +900 No -835	BetMGM DraftKings
Division	1.97%	+2300	FanDuel
Conference	0.45%	+10000	William Hill
Super Bowl	0.04%	+20000	William Hill