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Islanders vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Pick, NHL Odds for Wednesday, September 30

Islanders vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Pick, NHL Odds for Wednesday, September 30 article feature image
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Sep 29, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Kirill Marchenko (86) shoots the puck against the Montreal Canadiens in the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

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The New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet in an NHL matchup tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.

The Maple Leafs are favored at -120 on the moneyline, with the Islanders +100 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 6.5 (+110o / -134u).

Let's get into our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.


Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

  • Pick: +200 Parlay

Our New York vs. Toronto best bet is on the Maple Leafs to win and the under to hit, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs Odds

  • Islanders vs. Maple Leafs puck line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+186 ), Islanders +1.5 (-235)
  • Islanders vs. Maple Leafs over/under: 6.5 (+110o / -134u)
  • Islanders vs. Maple Leafs moneyline: Islanders +100, Maple Leafs -120
  • Islanders vs. Maple Leafs best bet: Maple Leafs ML, Under 6.5

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New York Islanders Preview

If you follow me on X (shameless plug), you’ll know how I feel about this team.

I truly don’t know the plan that Islanders GM Mathieu Darche has in store here. One day the Isles are in the middle of a retooling, then they think they can make a playoff push.

Judging from this roster, I don’t see the latter being a possibility.

While it’s clear that defenseman Matthew Schaefer is among the brightest stars in the NHL today, there is also a lot not to like.

Initially, the knock on this team was that it’s too old, and that they’re too slow. Entering the second year of Darche’s regime, both still ring true. They made two moves to acquire 35-year-olds Ondrej Palat and Brayden Schenn, and then, right before the season started, signed slow-footed defenseman Logan Stanley.

With Mathew Barzal still on the shelf with a nagging knee injury, and after saying goodbye to longtime captain Anders Lee, it feels like a rough start to the season.

A saving grace is Ilya Sorokin, who consistently is in the running for the Vezina Trophy. Last season, Sorokin played to a .906 SV% along with a third-best 25.3 GSAx.

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Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Leafs get right back on the wagon after dropping to the Montreal Canadiens last night, and it could be the best thing for them.

There was rightfully a lot of hype surrounding Toronto with the arrival of superstar Gavin McKenna, but I like the way this roster is constructed.

I don’t necessarily agree with the idea of getting rid of a cost-effective Matthew Knies in favor of Kirill Marchenko, who showed up to Blue Jackets camp already disgruntled. I like Marchenko as a player, but for the extension Toronto gave him, it makes me feel like it was better off with Knies.

Alas, Marchenko’s goal scoring will still be a huge boost for the Leafs. Toronto desperately missed Mitch Marner’s presence last season, so to make up for it, McKenna has the potential of being even better, and you add Marchenko’s scoring.

That scoring boost will be needed tonight, as no one on the Leafs showed up last night besides William Nylander. But I think the most underrated part of this team is the defense.

Adding Darren Raddysh is the obvious nice touch, but I think a guy like Nick Blankenburg will be so crucial to the depth of this defensive core.

In net, we’ll likely see Anthony Stolarz after Sergei Bobrovsky started last night. The key for Stolarz is just to stay healthy. He had a rough season last year battling injuries and a black hole for a defense. When the team is playing well in front of him, he’s effective.

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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Pick

I’m riding with a parlay here, because I think the lines are too good to ignore.

I think there’s something here with Toronto, and getting back on the horse after a disappointing loss is just what the doctor ordered.

And while the Islanders are missing Barzal, this seems like a great opportunity for Toronto to take control.

Secondly, I like the under. The Islanders brought in Pete DeBoer as the head coach in the final week of the season, and DeBoer teams are usually strong defensively. Factor in the exceptional goaltending of Sorokin, and this seems like the perfect recipe for a low-scoring game.

If the Islanders had a little more speed to their game, I’d be more inclined to take them, but that is not the case.

Picks:

  • Maple Leafs Moneyline
  • Under 6.5
  • Parlay Odds: +200



Author Profile
About the Author

Greg is a Long Island, NY native and Hofstra alum. He is an editor and writer for Action Network, primarily covering the NHL. Alongside his hockey expertise, Greg has experience covering college football, MLB, and college basketball, and has contributed to outlets such as Roundtable Sports, Newsweek, Sports Illustrated, and the New York Post.

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