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This is Daily Dangles. A column featuring our top experts’ NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Wednesday, September 30, Tony Sartori has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Flyers Moneyline (54 cents Kalshi | Play to 60 cents)
- Kings/Avalanche Over 5.5 (-125 at bet365 | Play to -130)
Penguins vs Flyers Pick
The Philadelphia Flyers kick off their campaign with a home tilt against intrastate rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins. Philadelphia dominated this matchup last year, winning five of the past seven meetings across the regular season and playoffs.
A big part of the Flyers' success is their ability to limit high-danger scoring chances. Last season, they finished third in xGA/60.
By comparison, the Penguins finished 17th in the same category.
Backing up Philadelphia's strong defensive play is goaltender Dan Vladar, who is expected to start in the season opener. Through 52 appearances in net in his inaugural season with Philadelphia, Vladar posted a 29-14-7 record with a .906 save percentage and a 2.42 goals-against average.
Of course, that includes his domination of Pittsburgh. Over his past seven starts against the Penguins, Vladar is 5-2 with a .928 save percentage and a 1.78 goals-against average.
Meanwhile, Arturs Silovs is expected to start at the other end of the ice. Last season, he trailed Vladar in wins, save percentage and goals-against average.
Pick: Flyers Moneyline (54 cents | Play to 60 cents)
Kings vs Avalanche Pick
The Colorado Avalanche possess the most explosive offense in hockey. Last year, they finished first in xGF/60, which is a credit to their speed and ability to generate high-danger scoring chances.
Colorado also finished those chances, ranking first in goals scored per 60 minutes. This offensive success is likely to continue against Darcy Kuemper and the Los Angeles Kings.
Through 50 starts last season, Kuemper finished with a .891 save percentage. He has also struggled in this year's preseason, posting a mere .868 save percentage across two starts.
The good news for Kuemper is that the Kings are capable of providing goal support. First, they averaged 4.5 goals per game across those two preseason outings.
Second, these two teams have been known to combine for goals, with six or more scored in four of the past six meetings. Notably, the only two of those games that did not see six or more goals were in the postseason, which is a completely different game (and lower-scoring) than September hockey.
Pick: Kings/Avalanche Over 5.5 (-125 at bet365 | Play to -130)
