Liverpool vs Man City Prediction, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Michael Regan/Getty. Pictured: Jeremy Doku.
Liverpool vs Man City Prediction, Odds
| Liverpool Odds | +200 |
| Man City Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Manchester City and Liverpool may not be natural rivals amongst the Premier League's elite or in the lengthy history of English soccer. But both clubs have had so much success under their current managers for the last seven seasons that they've concurrently competed at the top of the league and continent for the biggest annual prizes. Manchester City win for consistency with five league titles in the last six years, but Liverpool took the title race against the Cityzens to the final day in both 2018-19 and 2021-22 and pushed them more than any other club in the last half decade. Liverpool's 99 point title campaign in 2019-20 made history for the club in their first ever title since the Premier League began in 1992.
The Reds came within a couple hours of winning the quadruple in 2021-22, and Manchester City followed it up by completing the treble last season. Liverpool already has one trophy this year by winning the EFL Cup, and both are in contention in the quarterfinal round of the FA Cup. The news that Jurgen Klopp will leave Liverpool at year's end has brought a bit of finality to this epic rivalry, which has featured the best that club soccer has to offer across the world in recent years.
Since the start of 2017, they've met nine times in Manchester, and City have five wins, three draws and one loss. They've met seven times at Anfield, where Liverpool have four wins, two draws and a loss. It's been extremely rare that either club loses on home soil to anyone — Liverpool have one home loss in the league in 51 matches since fans fully returned to Anfield.
Despite this, the market's immense respect for a functionally fully healthy Manchester City squad has them as a solid quarter goal road favorite for Sunday's massive clash. Liverpool will have key forwards Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah back in the lineup, and the winner of this match will become title favorite with 10 matches remaining.
Liverpool
Liverpool have the largest delta between home and away performances in the Premier League this season and that's the primary reason to be bullish on their chances to win this match. The Reds have a +1.98 xG difference per match at home and have conceded 11 total goals in 13 home league matches. The defense concedes less than one xG per match at home, compared to more than 1.5 on the road.
In the full aggregate, Liverpool's defense is the clear third-best of the three title contenders. The Reds rely on the plus shot stopping of Alisson to make up for some of their open play defensive flaws. With him out, there hasn't been much of a drop off because Caoimhin Kelleher has surprisingly been a plus shot stopper himself this year in his limited time as a fill-in. His performance in the EFL Cup final win against Chelsea helped save a pretty mediocre defensive showing from Liverpool otherwise.
The Reds have dealt with a ton of attacking injuries and are still without Diogo Jota, but the return of Nunez and Salah cannot be understated ahead of this match. With Luis Diaz off the left, Nunez central and Salah off the right, the Reds have three of their four most productive attackers this season available. Nunez and Salah are both hovering right around 1.0 NPxG + xA per 90 this season. Neither did much of anything in the first meeting at the Etihad, a match that was played at a slower and more controlled pace that favored City. As the venue shifts to raucous Anfield, it's the best build-up team in the league (Manchester City) against the best disruptor of opposition build-up (Liverpool) in the PL.
Man City
City have been forced to tinker with lineups, formations and tactics for large parts of the season due to injury. Kevin De Bruyne's absence for the first half left a combination of Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez trying to fulfill the creative burden. Erling Haaland missed time in December and into January as well. John Stones has struggled for fitness and has played just 9.6 90s for the club in the Premier League.
Now that City have a nearly clean bill of health, it enables Guardiola to return to the lineup that was almost unbeatable last year. Guardiola is expected to lineup in a back three, using Kyle Walker's pace as a right-sided center back to deal with potential issues up that flank from Luis Diaz and an overlapping Andy Robertson. Rodri and Stones form a double pivot at the base of midfield, with De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva in front of them to form a box midfield that can easily progress the ball through the center of the pitch and into zone 14 just outside the penalty area.
One of the biggest tactical questions for Liverpool is how they handle a perceived numerical advantage for City in this area of the pitch. Liverpool like to have Trent Alexander-Arnold invert, but backup Conor Bradley is a more traditional full back. It puts a lot of pressure on Dominick Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo and Alexis Mac Allister's pressing and ball winning to prevent central progression.
The reason City could be even scarier this year is the emergence of Jeremy Doku on the left wing and the improved play of Foden on the right. Foden's production has taken a clear step forward across the board and few dribblers in the world have been more effective than Doku. With De Bruyne feeding them, it's a very effective ball progression plan that has now ripped up Chelsea, Manchester United and others en route to 13 wins and one draw of their 14 matches since the Club World Cup in December.
The one reason to be a bit skeptical of City relative to last season is the defensive and pressing metrics. City remain elite defensively, but they allow opponents more time on the ball, don't press nearly as much and are at risk to longer passes over the top of the defense. It may not seem like a huge difference, but there are areas where City haven't been as dominant at controlling games. The question is whether a fit Stones helps solidify these issues.
Liverpool vs Man City
Prediction
Liverpool's reliance on Bradley at right back is the weakest link in their defense and he is sure to be tested early and often by the dribbling quality of Doku. The Belgian winger averages 5.65 shot creating actions per 90 minutes in the PL this season, which is the fifth most behind only James Maddison, Bruno Fernandes, Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. He has five assists in 13 90s and is quite likely to start off the left in this match.
With Liverpool tilted to slow down central possession and the red hot Foden on the other side, Doku will have space to operate and swing in crosses and passes into dangerous areas. Doku is +450 to record an assist, which is my favorite prop for this match. My projected numbers suggest that City is now slightly inflated at +120 on the three-way moneyline, where I'd make City +134 and Liverpool -134 to win or draw the match. Given the current odds, I wouldn't bet either side of this match unless you can get City +145 on the moneyline or better.
It's more important for both teams to not lose this match, especially since all three title contenders will still essentially control their own destiny if this match ends in a tie. The Cityzens' attack operating at full strength will be difficult to slow down, so Kelleher's shot stopping remaining a positive will be a potential key equalizer on Sunday.
Pick: Kelleher Over 3.5 Saves (+110 via bet365), Doku to Record an Assist (+450 via bet365)
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