Newcastle United (9-8-6) and Liverpool (10-7-6) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Anfield in Liverpool.
Liverpool is favored at a -125 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-165o / +125u) goals.
Let's get into my Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
My Newcastle vs. Liverpool best bet is on both teams to score.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Odds
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -102 | 2.5 -165o / +125u | +305 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 2.5 -165o / +125u | -125 |
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Pick
Liverpool enters this game as the favorite, but their defense has been a significant weakness this season. Arne Slot’s team has conceded 1.39 goals per game in the Premier League, a rate worse than teams like Fulham and Crystal Palace. This defensive vulnerability has been a consistent theme; the "Both Teams to Score" market has hit in five of Liverpool's last seven league games. The only exceptions were goalless draws, an outcome that seems improbable here given the high stakes for both clubs as they chase a Champions League spot.
On the other side, Newcastle has had its own issues in front of goal recently, with no goals in its last two league matches. However, this dry spell might be misleading. In their recent loss to Aston Villa, Eddie Howe's team created three big chances, which suggests they were simply unfortunate not to convert. Before this two-game drought, the attack was potent, as Newcastle scored nine goals across three league contests.
Furthermore, Newcastle may face a patched-up Liverpool defense, with both Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez listed as questionable. Given Liverpool's porous backline, Newcastle should find opportunities to get on the scoreboard. History also supports this pick, as five of the last six head-to-head meetings have seen both teams find the net.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Newcastle | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 27.1% | 23.2% | 49.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Newcastle | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | 2.90 | 1.72 |
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
This game carries massive implications for the Premier League table. Newcastle sits just three points behind Liverpool, and a victory at Anfield would allow the visitors to leapfrog their rivals in the intense race for European qualification. A loss for Liverpool would be a severe blow to their ambitions, especially as the club is still in search of its first league win in 2026 after four draws and one defeat.
While Liverpool's current form is a major concern, their historical record in this matchup is formidable. Newcastle has not won a league game at Anfield since 1994, and their performance away from home this season has been poor. With a win rate of just 21% in road games across all competitions, a trip to face a desperate Liverpool team presents a monumental challenge. Potential midfield absences compound Newcastle's issues. Key players Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton are significant doubts, and the team's record without Guimarães is poor.
Still, Liverpool has its own challenges. The team concedes 0.31 more goals per league game compared to the previous campaign, which opens the door for a Newcastle attack that has shown flashes of quality. The head-to-head history underscores the potential for goals. An average of 4.4 goals have been scored across the last five encounters, and both teams have scored in five of the last six.
This suggests that while Liverpool holds the home-field advantage, their defensive issues could level the field and lead to an open game. This makes the Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction of an eventful game a strong possibility.
