Chelsea (4-2-1) and SSC Napoli (2-3-2) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Naples, Italy.
Chelsea is favored at a +119 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-132o / +102u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Napoli prediction.
Chelsea vs. Napoli Prediction
Pick:Over 2.5 Goals
My Chelsea vs. Napoli best bet is on the game to have a total of three or more goals
Chelsea vs. Napoli Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +110 | 2.5 -132o / +102u | +119 |
| Napoli Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -160 | 2.5 -132o / +102u | +220 |
Chelsea vs. Napoli Picks, Parlay
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
The context of this match is everything. It’s the final matchday of the Champions League group stage, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Chelsea, currently sitting eighth, needs a win to guarantee direct qualification to the Round of 16. A draw would leave them vulnerable to results elsewhere. For Napoli, the equation is even simpler: only a victory will be enough to climb into the top 24 and secure a knockout-stage berth. That shared urgency for three points should set the stage for an open, attack-minded contest.
Chelsea has found new life under manager Liam Rosenior. The Blues have won four of their last five competitive matches, scoring 13 goals in that stretch. Confidence is clearly growing in the final third, and they’ll back themselves to outscore a Napoli side dealing with several injuries. That attacking momentum was evident in their recent 3-1 away win over Crystal Palace, where Chelsea created five big chances.
Napoli, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency, but their Champions League home record remains formidable. They have lost just one of their last 20 home matches in the competition. Even with a depleted squad, they should draw energy from a passionate home crowd. This season’s Champions League matches are averaging 3.05 goals, with 57% producing three or more. Given the do-or-die nature of this matchup, all signs point toward another high-scoring affair.
Chelsea vs. Napoli Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 40.9% | 26.8% | 32.4% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 2.40 | 1.15 |
Chelsea vs. Napoli Betting Analysis
This matchup presents a classic clash of styles and circumstances. Napoli will likely look to control possession and build from the back, but they face significant challenges. Antonio Conte’s squad has been hit hard by injuries, with key players such as Kevin De Bruyne and Frank Anguissa ruled out, while Romelu Lukaku and Matteo Politano remain doubtful. That disruption has affected their attacking rhythm, as seen in the recent 3-0 loss to Juventus, when Napoli managed just one shot on target.
Chelsea arrives with a very different energy under new leadership. Liam Rosenior has implemented a dynamic, high-intensity approach, with the Blues aiming to use their pace on the counter and quality in wide areas to exploit any space Napoli leaves behind. Their ability to consistently create chances, even away from home, makes them a constant threat. Chelsea have scored in each of their last 20 major European competition matches, underlining their sustained attacking firepower.
The head-to-head history between these sides, while dated, also points toward decisive outcomes. In their only previous meeting during the 2011-12 Champions League, both legs were high-scoring affairs and neither ended in a draw. Chelsea advanced 5-4 on aggregate after extra time. With both teams desperate for a win on the final matchday, a tactical stalemate feels unlikely. An early goal from either side could quickly open the game up.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Chelsea vs Napoli picks.
