West Ham United (5-13-5) and Chelsea (10-6-7) will face off today at 12:30 p.m. EST at Stamford Bridge in London.
The Blues opened as a -1.5 goal favorite over the Hammers and are favored at 65 cents to win. Meanwhile, West Ham is priced at 16 cents at Polymarket to pull off the upset. The total is set at over/under 3.5 total goals scored.
Let's get into my West Ham vs. Chelsea prediction.
West Ham vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea Moneyline
My West Ham vs. Chelsea best bet is on the Blues to win outright.
West Ham vs. Chelsea Odds
West Ham vs. Chelsea Pick
Pick: Chelsea To Win
While Chelsea has found some rhythm under new manager Liam Rosenior, their defensive record at home is a point of concern. The Blues have secured just one shutout in their last five matches across all competitions. At Stamford Bridge this season, they have managed only five shutouts in 11 league games. This suggests a vulnerability that an opponent can exploit. The team's expected goals against (xGA) figure of 32.9 further indicates that they have been fortunate to not concede more goals than they have, a trend that is difficult to sustain.
On the other side, West Ham has shown new life with Nuno Espirito Santo in charge. The Hammers have won two consecutive matches, a feat that equals their win total from their previous 18 league contests. This recent success has been built on a more effective attack. West Ham has scored in seven of its 11 away matches this season. With players like Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville in form, they certainly have the tools to breach a Chelsea defense that consistently gives up chances.
West Ham vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| West Ham | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 16.3% | 19.2% | 64.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| West Ham | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | 3.20 | 2.16 |
West Ham vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
This London derby presents a classic clash of motivations. Chelsea, 17 points ahead of their rivals, is deep in the fight for a Champions League spot.
West Ham is in a tense battle for Premier League survival. These high stakes should produce an intense atmosphere and an aggressive match.
Chelsea is expected to control the tempo and dominate possession, a pattern established in their last encounter. Earlier this season, Chelsea held 59% of the ball and limited West Ham to just 0.73 xG, even as the away team.
However, the Blues have struggled to build momentum at home, with no back-to-back Premier League victories at Stamford Bridge all season. While West Ham has only two road wins, their recent offensive surge gives them a legitimate chance to hurt Chelsea on the counterattack.
The head-to-head history heavily favors the Blues. Chelsea has won the last four meetings between the clubs. This run includes a dominant 5-1 victory at London Stadium earlier in the campaign, where five different players scored for Chelsea.
Over the last five matchups, Chelsea has outscored West Ham 16-5. This history of offensive dominance, coupled with West Ham's own defensive struggles—they have only one shutout all season—reinforces the idea that Chelsea will find a way to win, even if their own defense concedes.
