The League Phase of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League has come to an end. The teams that advanced directly to the Round of 16 are now known, along with those heading to the knockout phase playoffs.
With the knockout phase playoff draw still pending, the market could continue to shift. However, fans who want to get an early jump on predicting the Champions League winner can do so on Kalshi, which blends traditional financial markets with advanced prediction systems. It's available in most states, and we wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Use the promo code below to claim a $10 bonus when signing up as a new user.
Champions League Odds
Arsenal won all eight matches, finished first in the League Phase with a perfect record, and now sit atop the odds. Nothing seems to slow down Mikel Arteta’s side, which also leads the Premier League and is chasing the first Champions League title in club history.
Second, both in the standings and in the odds, is Bayern Munich. The German giants are trending upward following the return to form of young star Jamal Musiala, and they have a major edge Arsenal lacks: six Champions League titles and extensive experience in decisive knockout stages.
History also favors Barcelona, which owns five Champions League trophies and ranks third in Kalshi’s market. Their 4-1 win over Copenhagen on the final matchday exposed some defensive vulnerabilities, but the team boasts a dream attacking unit that's led by Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski.
One tier below sit two Paris Saint-Germain, the defending champions, and Manchester City, which has already qualified for the next round despite an uneven campaign in both the Champions League and the Premier League.
When it comes to inconsistency, no team has been more puzzling than Liverpool. The Reds have gone five straight matches without a win in domestic play, but their European form tells a different story, and a dominant 6-0 win over Qarabag on the final matchday secured qualification as third in the overall table.
The biggest question mark remains Real Madrid. After parting ways with Xabi Alonso, the club’s struggles deepened, and a loss to Benfica kept them from qualifying directly for the Round of 16. The most successful club in Champions League history was forced into the playoffs and is dealing with suspensions to Rodrygo and Raúl Asencio following their red cards in Portugal.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
