Arsenal (15-3-5) and Leeds United (6-9-8) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EST at Elland Road in West Yorkshire.
Arsenal is favored at a -185 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-116o / -111u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Leeds prediction.
Arsenal vs. Leeds Prediction
Pick: Both Teams To Score — No
My Arsenal vs. Leeds best bet is a play on both teams not to score.
Arsenal vs. Leeds Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -120 | 2.5 -116o / -111u | -185 |
| Leeds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 2.5 -116o / -111u | +500 |
Arsenal vs. Leeds Picks, Parlay
Pick: Both Teams To Score — No (-125)
Arsenal enters this fixture after a rare defensive lapse, but their season-long performance points to a swift return to form.
The foundation of Arsenal's success is an impeccable defensive structure. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 16.27 is the best mark in the Premier League by a considerable margin. This elite defense travels well; the Gunners have five shutouts away from home and have secured four road victories where their opponent did not score.
While Leeds has shown impressive grit, especially at home, they face a different class of opponent here. Arsenal held Leeds to just three total attempts in their 5-0 victory earlier this season. Even on the road, a similar defensive clampdown seems probable. Leeds has been in solid form since December, with only one loss in ten league matches.
However, they have failed to score in one home fixture and have consistently lost the xG battle when they face top-six opposition. For a quality Leeds vs Arsenal pick, the data points toward a tight game where at least one side fails to find the net.
Arsenal vs. Leeds Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 62.1% | 21.7% | 16.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 2.52 | 0.76 |
Arsenal vs. Leeds Betting Analysis
The dynamic of this match is fascinating. Leeds are unbeaten in their last five home Premier League fixtures, a stretch that includes three wins. They have found the back of the net in all but one of their matches at Elland Road this season. That run faces its most difficult test against Arsenal, a team that concedes the fewest away goals in the league (nine) and holds the Premier League's best away points average at 1.91.
Something must give, and history points toward the visitors. Arsenal has a seven-game win streak against Leeds. In those encounters, the aggregate score is a lopsided 18-2. The Gunners have also shut out Leeds in three of their last six meetings. Even the last match at this venue ended in a disciplined 1-0 Arsenal victory, which aligns with the potential for a low-scoring affair.
Context also plays a huge role. Arsenal is in its first real slump of the season, without a win in three league games. A response is necessary to protect their four-point lead at the top of the standings. Individual errors have plagued Arsenal lately. After just one error that led to a goal in their first 18 matches, they have made two such mistakes in their last five. A focus on defensive basics will be paramount for manager Mikel Arteta, which could translate to a less adventurous, more controlled game plan.
For Leeds, every point is crucial to maintain their six-point cushion above the relegation zone. This pressure could lead to a cagey, defense-first approach from both sides, which further strengthens the case for this Leeds vs Arsenal prediction.
