The World Cup quarterfinals continue with an exciting Spain vs. Belgium matchup. The game will take place at 3:00 p.m. ET in Inglewood, California.
Our team of experts has three picks for this contest, so let's dive into today's World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets: Spain vs Belgium Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spain vs Belgium Best Bet to Advance
The pre-tournament favorites, Spain, overcame Portugal in the Round of 16 last time out, edging a tight contest 1-0. It was Spain’s biggest test so far at the 2026 World Cup, given the individual quality Portugal possesses. Still, Luis de la Fuente’s side recorded their fourth win in five games at the tournament.
In contrast to Spain’s largely dominant form, Belgium has underwhelmed at the tournament. Yet, the 4-1 victory over USA in the Round of 16 was a daunting challenge, and one that was overcome comfortably in the end (4-1). Belgium recorded 2.01 xG to USA’s 0.63 xG, and more than doubled the USA’s shot count of 7 to 15.
Next up for Belgium, Spain presents one of the most daunting challenges of any competitor in the World Cup. Luis de la Fuente’s Spain side is the first team in World Cup history to keep a clean sheet in six consecutive World Cup matches.
Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, forecasts a 72.8% likelihood of Spain qualifying from the quarter-final stage. Therefore, we’re going to align with BETSiE’s projections and side with the superior squad and the team currently in better form at the tournament.
Spain vs Belgium Both Teams to Score Pick
Spain became the first team in the tournament’s history to register six consecutive clean sheets following their Round of 16 victory over Portugal, where their backline was rarely troubled.
As the competition’s best defense, La Roja have conceded an average of just 0.30 xG per game, making them the overwhelming favourites to advance to the semi-finals on the back of a 35-match unbeaten streak.
The big question ahead of the quarter-final is whether Spain can maintain their defensive record against Belgium, who currently boast the competition's sixth-best attacking record, averaging 2.11 xG per fixture.
In their toughest assignment since a 2-1 Nations League defeat to France in 2024, Belgium, who average the second-highest shots per game (21.40) at the World Cup, are tipped to breach Spain's defense but ultimately bow out of the competition.
Spain vs Belgium Goal Scorer Prop Pick
Expectations were so high for Lamine Yamal heading into the 2026 World Cup, yet the soon-to-be 19-year-old winger has yet to deliver. Lamine’s only contribution was against Saudi Arabia, and despite the solid performances in all four other matches, he hasn’t contributed since.
In the competition so far, Yamal has played 225 minutes, accumulating a solid 1.14 xG from 14 shots. Only Mikel Oyarzabal has offered better output going forward, but he is a dedicated striker with many plans centered on his ability to find space in the box. However, against a defensively struggling Belgium, there should also be an opportunity for Yamal to make his mark.
Against Portugal, the arguably hardest game Spain played in the competition so far, Lamine took a solid three shots, but generated only 0.12 xG. He was mainly locked down against one of the best midfields in the world. Belgium can’t apply the same pressure on Yamal, so he should have more chances than he does here.
Despite his failure to deliver so far, Yamal is a value pick to make a contribution this time around, especially as his underlying metrics reveal he is not afraid to take shots on goal, and in a game that is expected to offer a lot of goals with Belgium failing to keep a clean sheet in four of their five matches, it offers a valuable betting opportunity.
