The World Cup has finally reached the knockout stage, and now the tournament really gets going.
We made it through the eternal 72-match group stage, hit a few long shots along the way, and still have a few juicy team tickets going forward on Mexico and Colombia.
Now every match going forward knocks someone out for good, and with France and Argentina emerging as huge favorites with Messi scoring left and right, that means it's time to go the other way and buy low on a few players and teams.
Buy Stock in Spain
France and Spain entered the World Cup as relative co-favorites, but with France looking so great so far and Argentina's path opening up, it feels like Spain has really fallen off the radar.
It wasn't the prettiest group stage, but Spain did outscore its opponents 5-0 combined, and the Spaniards have the best defense at the World Cup so far by many metrics. Opponents have barely even had a real chance on goal so far.
Control the possession all game with all that talent, literally never let your opponent score, and it turns out that will be a pretty good formula to win this thing.
There's no real reason to fear the path.
Austria up next feels like it could be Spain's breakout game. The Austrians play a bit too frenetically and open against a team this organized, having already given up six goals in three matches. Don't be surprised if Spain scores three or four in that one.
Then it's Portugal or Croatia, and though those names sound great on paper, it ain't 2022 anymore. Croatia is old, and Portugal still has its Ronaldo problem, and I'll like Spain a lot in either of those games, then against the USA or Belgium too. Spain has had France's number, too.
Let's start by betting Spain at -130 to make the Quarterfinals (DraftKings). That means a win vs Austria and then Portugal or Croatia, and I'll have them as clear favorites in either spot, so that should not be so close to even odds.
Spain also gets a nice break on weather and indoor setup, which could help a deep run. I really like Spain over 12.5 goals at +175 (bet365). They're at five right now, so they'll need eight, but could very easily get six more games, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them score 3+ against Austria, at which point that's a great ticket to be holding.
If you just want a title ticket, Spain would be my favorite bet right now, though I'll probably bet them these other ways and game to game since it's still a relatively short ticket in a goofy, high-variance sport.
There's one other big reason to invest in Spain, and I'll invest directly because of him.
In a group stage dominated by stars, Lamine Yamal hasn't really made his mark just yet, but he's been slowly ramping up with 20, 45, and then 75 minutes in his appearances.
Yamal has eight shots at the World Cup and scored against Saudi Arabia, and he's only one goal behind Oyarzabal for the Spanish lead. He's the superstar on this squad and should have plenty of time to go. I'll play Yamal at +250 to lead Spain in scoring (DraftKings). Even chopping against Oyarzabal would be profitable, and Spain tends to spread its goals around, so that may only need three or four to cash.
What if it's more than that? You can bet on Yamal over 2.5 goals at -110 (bet365), but I'm not particularly interested in a median outcome. We've yet to see a huge goals explosion for the national team, but Yamal did score 16 for Barcelona this season, and the goals are coming.
If you want to ride the Yamal escalator, you can bet 5+ goals at +550, 6+ at +1200, and 7+ at +2800 at bet365. And if you're going that far, why not play him for top goal scorer too at +7000 (DraftKings)? Maybe we can take that crazy Messi-Yamal picture and pass the torch for real.
Invest in Colombia as a Sleeper
Colombia was our biggest hit in the group stage. We bet them to go 1-2 atop the group with Portugal and got +600 for an exact 1-through-4 group finish too, and now we're sitting on a juicy quarterfinal ticket with a great path forward: Ghana next, then the winner of Switzerland vs Algeria.
That group and that potential path were exactly why we were invested in the first place, and the path really looks even better than before. Colombia's defense has been less vulnerable than expected, and Ghana and Switzerland are struggling to score.
Get to the quarters, and Colombia would very likely face Argentina, whose path has totally opened up. But I'm still not sold on this older team holding up for a deep run, and add in the public Messi sentiment, and it's clear bettors can really only fade Argentina, if anything, at this point.
The Colombia side of the draw has become the South American Open, plus England, and it's definitely the side of the bracket you want a sleeper from. Matchups between rivals are always a bit tighter, giving the underdog a chance, and if Argentina and/or Brazil aren't ready to make a run, the bracket could open up further.
Colombia could even make it all the way to the title game. I'd expect them to lose once they got there, but that's already priced in, so it's worth betting both sides: Colombia Stage of Elimination title game +1700 (FanDuel) and to win it all at +4500 (DraftKings).
The attack has been frustrating so far for the Colombians, but if the goals start coming in the side of the bracket with softer defenses and potentially plenty of goals, there's a fun long shot angle. Colombia is 150-1 to finish as the highest-scoring team (DraftKings).
Colombia has only four goals, while Argentina, Norway, Senegal, France, Netherlands, Germany, and USA all have 8-to-10. Colombia would have to knock out Argentina, so that's not a problem, and one of France or Germany will be gone in the Round of 16. You're probably hoping for a Spain (five goals right now) title run here, which is even better since that's another angle I'd love to invest in.
A Trio of Long-Shot Goal Scorers
If you followed before the tournament started, two of these three names will look familiar. Long-shot bets on players are tough in a sport where goals are few and far between. We bet three guys as long shots to lead the World Cup in goals and none of them have scored yet — one of the three hasn't even stepped onto the pitch.
Alas. Long shots are hard.
But we're doubling down on two of them! And we'll start with Luis "No, Not That One" Suarez as another way to invest in Colombia.
Suarez has yet to play a full 90 and came off the bench in the group finale, but did get four shots in that, and Colombia's leading scorer is Munoz with only two. If we think Colombia makes a deep run and finds some more goals, investing in the guy most likely at the top of the attack is never going to be a bad idea. Suarez is +2500 to lead Colombia in scoring (DraftKings).
Enner Valencia has looked slow and old for Ecuador, but he's still played 85% of the minutes, and Ecuador really doesn't have any other options.
Ecuador's group stage performance was a bit disappointing, but it was also unlucky. Metrics suggest Ecuador was one of the teams that most underperformed its expected goals, and now the team gets a sneaky good draw with its next two matches in Mexico City.
That's sneaky good because Ecuador will have the same altitude advantage Mexico usually has, neutering that a bit against Mexico and then holding the advantage with a no-travel advantage too if they advance and face presumably England.
Valencia is part of the reason that the xG differential is off. He hasn't scored, but he does have 10 shots, six of them on target, and he's drawn seven fouls too, so he's making an impact out there. Ecuador has only scored twice, no one more than once, so Valencia is still just one off the lead. One goal changes everything. Valencia is +1000 to lead Ecuador in scoring (bet365), and we're doubling down.
Last up is a new name that might already be a bust, but long odds are long for a reason.
Charles de Ketelaere played 65 minutes for Belgium in the opener, but you're forgiven if you barely noticed. In fact, Belgium finally scored approximately 1.7 seconds after he left the pitch in that one. Perhaps that's why CDK didn't play at all against Iran, though he was back starting again versus New Zealand and played 85 minutes.
Romelu Lukaku looks like he's only got super-sub minutes left in him, so Belgium may need to keep trying de Ketelaere at the top of the attack. Senegal up next has already allowed six goals in three matches, and the USA rarely keeps a clean sheet.
Goal scorers are always ice cold right up until they're not. If de Ketalaere gets one, the second may be right around the corner. He hasn't scored yet, so he'll need two to even tie Trossard and chop the pot, but we'll take a shot at Charles de Ketelaere to lead Belgium in goals at +3300 (bet365).
Be a Grinch, Fade the USA
Don't hate the player, hate the game.
The USMNT is playing outstanding ball. The Americans should absolutely beat Bosnia, and they're definitely good enough to beat Belgium and then get smoked by Spain.
But this won't be easy, not as easy as it looked against Paraguay, and goals will be pretty hard to come by — that's simply how the knockout stage goes, and the list of American goal scorers in the knockouts is not long.
Even wins in these next few matches could be a real struggle, your typical 1-0 or 2-0 type knockout.
USA has already scored eight goals, an all-time record for the Americans at one World Cup.
Be a Grinch and bet USA under 12.5 goals at -138 (bet365). That still needs five goals to go over, and five is still asking a lot.
Lose one of the next two games, and that's almost a definite under. Even winning those two could still easily lead to a goalless loss against Spain, which means the USA could need five goals in the next two games to cash. Even a pair of 2-0 victories — which I'll be rooting for!! — still keeps the bet very live.
And if you're betting against your own country anyway, you may as well go the whole way. DraftKings is offering a special for the USA to win the World Cup, and it's not a one-way market, so the Field option — anyone but USA — is listed at -3000.
If you saw $10 on the ground, would you pick it up?
And on the off chance that bending down to grab it meant you got run over by a bike, so you had to watch your national team win the World Cup on home soil from the hospital?
Well, you've just done everyone a great service, and frankly, we salute you.
