We've got over 100 matches in our future over the next couple of months, and that means myriad opportunities for futures and long shots.
These games are happening all over the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and will be the talk of summer barbecues for all of June and July, so let's have a little fun and set up some futures positions.
These are not Brinks truck bets. Put some pizza money on a few long shots, give yourself something to root for, and let's enjoy this wild new 48-team World Cup.
I'm lumping my bets into four groups, so let's start at the top.
1. Come out swinging against some of the worst World Cup qualifiers ever
This is the first tournament expanding from 32 to 48 teams, and while that means a joyous celebration for nations like Curacao and Cabo Verde heading to their first-ever World Cup finals, it also makes for a very different group stage.
Some of these opponents will be a serious downgrade from the opponents teams have been facing during qualifying. They can bunker down all they want, but the truth is that they're just here to represent the homeland for three matches and try not to get beaten too badly.
So let's bet accordingly.
BET: Curacao and Haiti to lose all their group games (+182, DraftKings)
Curacao's population is 158,000, approximately the same as Santa Fe, New Mexico, or Hattiesburg, Mississippi. And yet here they are, the smallest nation to ever make the World Cup, in a group with Germany, Ecuador, and Ivory Coast.
Cute story and all, but I fear for poor Curacao. Germany is first and will look to run up the score with more group games to come, and Ecuador and even Ivory Coast are just miles better. Success for Curacao at this World Cup might be something like scoring a single goal or not finishing with a double-digit negative goal differential.
Haiti's group includes Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland. Just sharing a World Cup final pitch with Brazil is already a win for the Haitians, but these games will be tough. Haiti's best hope is bunkering down for a 0-0 draw. We're betting on both teams going winless at +182.
BET: Jordan, Iraq, New Zealand, and Haiti to finish bottom of their groups (+223, BetMGM)
Similar concept to the last one, but we have a little more grace here. Now that Haiti's draw doesn't kill us, the truth is that we're mostly just betting on these four teams not to get a win.
We made the case for Haiti already. Jordan could push for a draw with Algeria or Austria, but isn't going to pass those teams in the group standings. Iraq has more quality but got a brutal draw with France, Norway, and Senegal on tap.
New Zealand is a more interesting team, because they absolutely flew through qualifying against a bunch of nobodies, hanging crooked numbers and controlling the ball. None of those results are particularly relevant now for a team that enters with the worst ranking in the field and a serious talent deficit against Belgium, Egypt, and even Iran.
All but four third-place teams will make the Knockout Stage, so the difference between third and fourth matters. These teams are of poor quality, and they're also in groups with three teams worthy of knockout, so take +223 on all four finishing bottom.
BET: New Zealand top goal scorer: No goal scorer (+800, DraftKings)
Again, New Zealand is a weird team to evaluate.
Star forward Chris Wood has 11 goals in 16 appearances for the national team since the start of 2024, and he's priced as a huge favorite at +100 to lead the team in scoring, but that's creating value on No Goal Scorer.
New Zealand is used to having a ton of the ball in its qualifying matches but that won't be the case here. Instead, the team will be on the back foot all game, with defenders that are no match for the flashy Belgian and Egyptian star attackers. Even Iran is far better, a top 25 team in the world that will fully expect to get out of this group.
Belgium and Egypt are vulnerable defensively enough to put this bet in doubt in what should be open games, but New Zealand still has to have the ball long enough to score. Let's fade Chris Wood and take the long number on no goals in a tough group at +800.
2. Have a little fun with a Knockout parlay with one team from every group
Listen, I'm just gonna tell you up front: parlaying 12 things together, even things you think you're pretty sure of, is just about always going to be a losing endeavor. This is a pizza-money bet, and one that should at least be hedgeable into Match Day 3, if needed.
If we have to watch 72 group games the next three weeks, we may as well give ourselves something to root for in every group.
Every major sportsbook allows you to bet on teams to advance out of the group stage, and most let you parlay them. Let's grab one team from each Group A through K in order.
BET: South Korea, Canada, Scotland, USA, Ecuador, Japan, Egypt, Uruguay, Norway, Algeria, Colombia, and Croatia to qualify from group (+746, BetMGM)
We're only taking one group favorite here, and that's the USA. The number isn't pretty, but the Americans are playing on home soil in their 250th year, and doggone it, we're backing the home team.
Canada gets home ice too, and though the Canadians are struggling through some significant injuries, the Group B draw was kind with Qatar and Bosnia on tap. Even one win is likely enough to advance most teams this World Cup.
You probably don't need much convincing on Croatia, Uruguay, Norway, Colombia, or Ecuador advancing. We'll get back to two of those teams shortly.
Korea is probably the most talented team in a winnable Group A and would be favored to win the group if not for Mexico's home advantage. There's a real chance Japan is best in Group F, too, depending on what you think of this version of Netherlands.
Our last three all have something in common — they get to play one of those bad teams above we're focused on betting against.
A Scotland win against Haiti should be enough, as long as they can bunker down and not bleed out too much against Brazil or Morocco.
Algeria is a fun, attacking side and should find goals in this tournament, enough to beat Jordan for sure, and maybe even Austria or Argentina. Egypt has brilliant goal-scoring attackers, too, and should overwhelm New Zealand. Algeria and Egypt are live to win their groups.
Add it all up, and you get one team to root for in every group, and in most cases, a single win and a goal differential of -2 or better should do the trick. All 12 together rings up at +746 at BetMGM.
3. Pick a few sleepers you like and look for ways to invest that don't involve winning the whole thing
The dirty little secret of the World Cup is that the same few teams win over and over, and will probably do so again. Even the semifinals usually have just one or often zero real surprise teams.
Upsets come in the group stage, where the setup is more forgiving, and teams that are 12th, 21st, or 28th best in the world are capable of winning a couple of knockout games. But having that ticket to win the final may not be that valuable in the end.
It's wiser to find other ways to invest. I'm looking to invest in Mexico, Colombia, and Ecuador.
For Mexico, more than anything else, it's a bet on an outsize home-field advantage, especially in Mexico City, where the team would host its first two knockout matches if it wins Group A. Mexico's talent and setup is underwhelming, but it's no coincidence that Mexico made the final eight teams in both of its previous times hosting the World Cup.
BET: Mexico to make quarterfinals (+350, bet365)
BET: Mexico 1, South Korea 2, exact outcome in group (+350, DraftKings)
Mexico has a light group. South Africa and Czechia aren't scaring anyone, and South Korea is tough, but this group probably has the worst best team of any group. If Mexico can ride the home crowd and take home the group, Korea should be good enough to finish second and cash that exact outcome bet.
That would set Mexico up to play a third-place team in Mexico City and then host England there. That match won't be easy, but that's a huge travel and home advantage against a team with a ton of pressure on them to hoist the Cup.
If you want to add another USMNT bet into the mix, you can bet Mexico 1, South Africa 4 and USA 1, Australia 4 in their groups at +1200 (DraftKings).
BET: Ecuador to make quarterfinals (+500, bet365)
Ecuador is a favorite sleeper for many, and for good reason. You can make a solid case that Ecuador is the third-best team from South America right now after Argentina and Brazil.
This defense was impenetrable in qualifying, barely allowing a goal, and the attack has plenty to offer with Moises Caicedo and veteran scorer Enner Valencia up front.
Ecuador has the talent and the organization to upset Germany and win its group, though the truth is that it might be a worse knockout setup since it likely means facing France in the second round. It won't be easy either way, though, which is why we get the long odds. Finish second, and it could mean France anyway if they fall to second, or Norway or Senegal instead, followed by a likely match against Brazil.
Ecuador will be an underdog in these matches, so if you like them, you might just be better off playing game to game or investing in other ways.
BET: Ecuador as best finish from South America (+1600, bet365)
It's not great that second-place Ecuador might have to face Brazil just to make the quarters, but it's not the worst thing for this bet. Finishing best in South America means beating Brazil anyway, so might as well beat a familiar opponent head-to-head.
Ecuador's defense is good enough to hold any opponent scoreless or squeak by 1-0 or in penalties. Brazil is a team in transition, short of its usual flair and upside, and Argentina is an old team in a tournament with a history of defending champs going out early.
This is a long number for a reason, but even being knocked out in the same round as one of these teams leaves a great split-pot win.
That is, of course, unless one other South American team makes a big run…
BET: Colombia to make quarterfinals (+270, FanDuel)
Colombia is a team in transition itself, with James Rodriguez seeing better days, and it doesn't have anywhere near the defensive spine of Ecuador.
This bet will hinge on a pair of Luises — Diaz and Suarez — taking a team in transition to its new form and pushing Colombia to a deep run.
It starts in a group where Colombia has rightfully been a popular bet as group winner. What was once +250 is now down around +200 at most books, but we can find value by getting more precise.
BET: Colombia 1, Portugal 2 exact outcome in group (+275, DraftKings)
BET: Colombia 1, Portugal 2, DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 4 exact outcome in group (+600 DraftKings)
Group K is top-heavy, with two whales and two minnows, and I'm more than happy to fade Portugal under Roberto Martinez with an ancient Cristiano Ronaldo central to everything but ready to wilt in the summer heat. Portugal has the talent but never seems to match the sum of its parts, and that hasn't exactly been a Martinez specialty over the years.
I trust Portugal to take care of its lesser competition, but a Colombia group win should still leave Portugal safely in second, so we gain that lost value back with +275 for the 1-2 outcome. From there, it's effectively a bet on DR Congo matching or better Uzbekistan, or just beating them head-to-head. DRC is super fast and will find goals in this tournament and could even grab a point from one of the whales, so that four-team exact outcome bet at +600 is a natural escalator.
If Colombia does win its group, the setup from there is pretty juicy. The first knockout match comes against a third-place team, and the second is like Canada or Switzerland, the winner of the softest group in the draw. Even if that's a road match in Canada, Colombia is clearly favored there, and now the team is in the quarters and cashes our bet.
BET: Quarterfinals round robin of Colombia +270, Mexico +350, and Ecuador +500
It's not a coincidence that we've chosen three teams from the Americas.
World Cup teams consistently perform above expectations playing near their home, and the opposite is just as true. The heat will be a real story this summer, and these teams should be used to and ready for this climate, with the depth and talent to outrun opponents.
A parlay of all three is a big ask since you're taking up 3-of-8 spots in the quarterfinals, and the wonky bracket could even pit two of them against each other in the wrong draw. But playing a 2x round robin makes sense, setting up an opportunity for a big payout if any two of the three hit.
But we're not done with Colombia or Ecuador just yet. How about a few player bets to close us out?
4. With goals tough to come by, look for long shots in the goal scorers market
BET: Luis Suarez top Colombia scorer (+320, bet365)
BET: Luis Suarez top goal scorer (+4000, FanDuel)
No, not that Luis Suarez. Bitey McBiterson got left off Uruguay's roster.
This Luis Suarez scored 28 goals in 32 league appearances for Sporting this season, so he enters the tournament in fine form and already had a four-goal match for Colombia last fall. Suarez is the clear go-to target for Colombia's attack, and this team is going to score goals and could make a deep run.
Luis Diaz is priced as the favorite for Colombia's leading scorer, and he'll need to be good for this bet to cash, but Suarez will get the more valuable touches in the box and more chances to finish things off. He should be the favorite to lead Colombia, and if he does and the team goes deep, it's obligatory to sprinkle the Golden Boot odds too.
BET: Enner Valencia top Ecuador scorer (+175, DraftKings)
BET: Enner Valencia top goal scorer (+8000, FanDuel)
It feels like one Valencia or another has been scoring goals for Ecuador for ages now, and that should continue to be the case at the World Cup. Here again is a clear dominant lead attacker for a team we like to make a possible deep run.
Valencia is the favorite to lead Ecuador in scoring, but he should be priced even lower, especially if we like the team to make a run. And though Ecuador probably won't score as much as Colombia because of its more defensive setup, a deep run gives him a real long shot chance at the Golden Boot.
If either of these teams makes the semifinals, remember that's as good as making the finals — sometimes even better, since the third-place match counts for Golden Boot at much lower stakes and often higher-scoring matches.
BET: Erling Haaland & Harry Kane as top Norway & England scorers (-106, DraftKings)
Look, they don't all need to be long shots.
Haaland and Kane are pretty good at scoring. Welcome to soccer.
They're machines in front of the net, they're penalty takers, and they should lead their countries by multiple goals, especially if they push deep into the tournament. If you think Norway or England go out early, it's probably because these two aren't scoring, and you shouldn't take this bet.
But even three or four games should be enough separation for goal scorers as good and as hot as these two.
BET: Nick Woltemade top Germany scorer (+700, BetMGM)
BET: Nick Woltemade top goal scorer (+6600, BetMGM)
We finish out with something totally different.
Woltemade is not Suarez or Valencia, and he's certainly not Haaland or Kane. He has a whole heap of competition for starts and chances in Germany, most notably Kai Havertz and Deniz Undav at forward.
Havertz is the presumed starter and just netted a goal and an assist against USA after scoring in the opening moments of the Champions League final, but he's been incredibly spotty and unrealiable as a target man. Undav was a revelation for Stuttgart but profiles as more of a super sub, and he picked up a nick in a friendly a week ago.
And then there's Nick Woltemade, coming off a miserable season with Newcastle, where nothing seemed to go right, with just 11 goals in 51 appearances.
That's not the form you want entering the World Cup, but Woltemade has looked like a totally different player for Germany, and we've seen that play out time and again for this German side, with some players just amplified and at their best in the national team setup, delivering just the right touches.
Woltemade has made 11 appearances for Germany in the last year, and playing time says a lot — as do four goals.
Maybe Woltemade is out of form and losing his place in the team… or maybe he's so secure that the team is trying its other options out to see what else it's got. Call it a gut feeling, but Woltemade just seems like the right target man for Julian Nagelsmann's attack.
Germany tends to spread its goals out, but the right striker can score goals in bunches and contend for the Golden Boot. And it should start right away, with Curacao first on the schedule. There's a world where Woltemade scores two or three right off the bat and gives us all sort of options on this ticket just a few days into the tournament.
Let's sprinkle some long shots, watch a little soccer, and have some fun.
